Everything is in the original Alf thread, including a month of my annotated trades employing, basically, the same model as above, along with other examples.
- #1,362
- Jul 6, 2010 3:28pm Jul 6, 2010 3:28pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: vincit qui se vincit | 6,251 Posts
My bad
Vincit qui se vincit.
Hi,
How have you been back testing? Did you move the indicator in the moment when price reached certain +price or when such a candle closes above that level? Also on which TF did you back test? 5m 30m 4h?
Almost all of my loosing trades are made on the ranging markets. Do you think that it is possible to include such an indicator in EA? Because even HA 3T-1 on 4h gives false signals on ranging markets - it can't discern it.
Also - when did you put the EA to exit? On the stop loss or on the sure sign of weakness of the trend?
1. How have you been back testing?
Manual Back Testing
2. Did you move the indicator in the moment when price reached certain +price or when such a candle closes above that level?
Did not get this one
3. Also on which TF did you back test? 5m 30m 4h?
4H only and not on 4H and 30M. Single Time frame and not on multiple time frame like Tony Does. Moreover I just use the Trend Lord, AO does not matter to me.
4. Almost all of my loosing trades are made on the ranging markets. Do you think that it is possible to include such an indicator in EA?
I am not designing an EA, it is a Trade Manager only. I have used Stochastic and I use judgment to define oversold and overbought areas. i.e. At times in trends a level of 40 can be an oversold region and at times 20 is what I am looking at. It is simple try it. I have used default values for the Stochastic. Another criteria is that the Signal lines needs to prompt for a crossover on the value line, and this needs to happen on the current candle or previous candle or even before use judgement. The idea is to see the Stocastics return to up or down with a Signal Crossover from oversold or overbought zones. More so there are tons of indicators out there which will work much better that Stocs but somehow I clicked on it, added it to the chart and played with it. I got what I was looking for... Simple
5. Because even HA 3T-1 on 4h gives false signals on ranging markets - it can't discern it.
Try it with Stocs, it reduces them by a really good margin. Moreover these set of Trade Management rules help a lot. If you get a Blue arrow with all the conditions like Trendlord but the Stocs does not agree, leave that trade. Better safe than sorry. More likely that trade will be a looser since the trend will lack the steam to move forward. I don't know how right or wrong I am but it works just perfectly.
6. Also - when did you put the EA to exit? On the stop loss or on the sure sign of weakness of the trend?
Trade Management rules have been defined above. The entry is when the Buy/Sell arrow forms (I do not wait for close -- which for now I have defined as (H+L)/2 of the signal candle.. I am sure at times this signal would come in when the candle is around 80% and at times it will come when a new candle forms.. because this arrow more or less mirrors the 3SMA and 5SMA crossover on the chart already). The exit is on the close of the arrow in the opposite direction.
Folks, this works for the UJ at the moment, I am not sure about other pairs. Moreover I have done a blind testing using F12 on my keyboard
no vHands and all.. will try it out too but later not now. I have tried not to use trendlines, the max I could. Trend Lord should already agree with the direction of the arrow. There is only 1 out of 20 times, when I have entered on a delayed Trend Lord confirmation (max 2 bars), when I was damn sure it would turn, stochastic favored it and the price did not move a lot from arrow confirmation candle to trend lord conformation candle.Still you can discount this performance by 20% if you stick by the rules and will not use Trend Lines or S&R or Gut Feeling while actual trading. But if you do all this then I would say add on another 25% or so onto it.
Best things in the World are arguably the most simplest and are there in front of you -- Like our Good Old Stochastic.
OFD
Hello onefineday
i just want to say maybe with other pairs the results will be more than that because the daily average range from UJ is about 90 pips.
and if you take GU its about 160 pips daily so it will make a biger move when it trends .
and last time you ask me that if i can catch some moves with out retracing 35 or 45 pips yes just take a look on EurAud this pair when it makes an 4H trend it go straigt a way down or up it may retrace little but this pair have a good 4H trends just back testet and you will see.
Thanks ,
Yoenes
I backtested EurAud and the results were not impressive. The thing with this pair is:
1. The profitability would be reduced a lot because of high spread, my broker has it as 10 pips.
2. There are only occasional profits, but regular stream of losses even though small and some really big ones.
3. We cannot rely on the 200+ pip moves which happen occasionally coz there are a lot of factors which probably might not allow us to get in on time in these moves thus rendering our overall profitability negative.
4. Stocastics were unable to prevent a lot of choppy moves.
5. Regular moves where we made some profit on bar closings were around 30 pips which is not good compared with -100 x 2 pip losses at times... i.e. got them around 2 times in an interval of just 1 month.
6. Quiet possible a different set of trade management rules might work well with this pair but for now, I would chuck it rather than reinventing the wheel.
So, I think I will going forward
1. Stick with G4, or G10 at max..
2. Low spread pairs since then the back test and the live results won't be so different. Including almost all JPY with low spread and low volatility.
3. Pairs with low volatility even thought a small ATR would do, but the volatility would kill this method.. like in EurAud.. sometimes the H4 bar has given a move of well over 200 pips...
now getting in such positions is a case of luck more than anything else.So I would rather run after controlling my losses first and thereafter whatever the market throws at me, I am ready to accept it with full dignity.
Comments, most welcome.