EURUSD | Page 13360 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #267,181
  • Jul 5, 2010 9:10am Jul 5, 2010 9:10am
Quoting gatorinla
shit or off the pot time. we got a bull wedge on the 15m. so dont get comfortable yet. until we get a good flow. still looks up without 3514 convincingly taken out then some.. below wedge bottom..
you meant 1.2514 probably
Andreyou
  • #267,182
  • Jul 5, 2010 9:11am Jul 5, 2010 9:11am
Quoting andreypu
you meant 1.2514 probably
yeah.. fat finger syndrome. ill fix
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #267,183
  • Jul 5, 2010 9:31am Jul 5, 2010 9:31am
Is there anyone out there who thinks daily and weekly charts have a "head and shoulders" pattern?

Does anyone (besides me) thinks that the bear trend is over?
  • #267,184
  • Jul 5, 2010 9:33am Jul 5, 2010 9:33am
stops @ 1.25
  • #267,185
  • Jul 5, 2010 9:34am Jul 5, 2010 9:34am
Quoting gatorinla
without 2514 convincingly taken out then some.. below wedge bottom..
with a clear break of 2510 and some volatility prepare for 2480
  • #267,186
  • Jul 5, 2010 9:35am Jul 5, 2010 9:35am
US futures shut down in a little less than an hour from now 10:30am CT so siesta coming till later this evening.
  • #267,187
  • Jul 5, 2010 9:37am Jul 5, 2010 9:37am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...bailout-eu-imf
  • #267,188
  • Jul 5, 2010 9:39am Jul 5, 2010 9:39am
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...dip-fears.html
  • #267,189
  • Jul 5, 2010 9:42am Jul 5, 2010 9:42am
Quoting T@rantula
with a clear break of 2510 and some volatility prepare for 2480
would 24835 work? not enough potential for the risk for me.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #267,190
  • Jul 5, 2010 9:43am Jul 5, 2010 9:43am
http://bsanna-news.ukrinform.ua/news...=13503&lang=en
  • #267,191
  • Jul 5, 2010 9:50am Jul 5, 2010 9:50am
Quoting Mr Bull
Is there anyone out there who thinks daily and weekly charts have a "head and shoulders" pattern?

Does anyone (besides me) thinks that the bear trend is over?

The daily has a reverse HS pattern but I don't believe it will play out. There is a much larger HS on the monthly (see my previous post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...11#post3849611), and we also have one that is possibly forming on the 4 hour with the head at 2611 and shoulder at around 2476. In this case, the head and shoulders both line up perfectly with important 50% fib levels, and it is also in line with the current trend which is down.
  • #267,192
  • Jul 5, 2010 9:50am Jul 5, 2010 9:50am
Quoting Forexfsa
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...bailout-eu-imf
psst.. so are the French,Germans,Spanish, etc.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #267,193
  • Jul 5, 2010 9:55am Jul 5, 2010 9:55am
Quoting SunTrader
Just got a PM here on FF offering me a "winning" trading system for only $5000.

Yep. Already reported this boob.

He's lucky I only have his domain, the domain's whois details and his gmail address. I can ruin his online experience with that but I can only do so much damage.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #267,194
  • Edited 10:19am Jul 5, 2010 9:58am | Edited 10:19am
Quoting Mr Bull
Is there anyone out there who thinks daily and weekly charts have a "head and shoulders" pattern?

Does anyone (besides me) thinks that the bear trend is over?
I think that we have violated the neckline of the inverted shoulders and we are on our way to 1.30 or possibly 1.32 (the bottom of the consolidation in May) after we break 1.26

 

  1. However, I do not think the Bear trend is over. I expect this to be a short covering rally, and short term unwinding of short euro and long gold positions as a result of an asset relocation in regards to the amount of aid reported by the banks in the eurozone being significantly less than expected .

  1. Essentially with this new information coming to light I think institutions and banks are looking at this new information and adjusting their euro, dollar, and gold exposure(Notice gold has broken down as well as the USD index) appropriately and probably considering themselves a bit overbought in the dollar. Therefore we have seen these capital flows even overcome the safe haven flows of the dollar. This has restored some confidence in the Euro for the time being

  1. Usd index we are well below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern but also have a support line to clear before dropping down to the next line of support.
  2. However if the eqity markets continue to suffer, and that is good possibility since the S&P 500 and and the DOW have their own Head and Shoulders being violated on the charts. Additionally, I'm sure with all the worries over in Greece, Spain, and Portugal, and the fact that they are certianly heading for a double dip recession, that we are bound to get some more bad news to send this currency pair screaming down soon. I think that this movement on the EUR/USD is a short term reversal of asset relocation and we will see bearish pressure return at 1.31-1.32.
  3. Conclusion- Notice that a retracement to 1.3118 is only .382 fibbonacci retracement in this medium term bear trend that began with the fall from 1.52. A retracement to a .382 level before further declines is not unreasonable or the least bit strange. The market was provided with information from those numbers that the banks in the Eurozone are slightly healthier than expected. Had the numbers come out the other direction we would probably be sitting at 1.15. So we still have to clear 1.26, but I think we will and then I think we head up to about 1.31-1.32. And I will evaluate my position again from there. I think we will be heading back down after that and we should get some time of bad news out of Europe to shake this new confidence.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: crazy.png Size: 46 KB
  • #267,195
  • Jul 5, 2010 10:02am Jul 5, 2010 10:02am
That's my setup, hope TL holds well as it did till now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.jpg Size: 165 KB
  • #267,196
  • Jul 5, 2010 10:07am Jul 5, 2010 10:07am
Since we seem to be in a dead trading day/post news link (some credited, some copy/paste only) mode here is another:


Euro Rebound Looks Suspect

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2130...t?source=email
  • #267,197
  • Jul 5, 2010 10:12am Jul 5, 2010 10:12am
hope so.

(man, i am sleepy....)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Forex.jpg Size: 132 KB
dreams do come true.
  • #267,198
  • Jul 5, 2010 10:35am Jul 5, 2010 10:35am
Quoting Maxsmart
I think that we have violated the neckline of the inverted shoulders and we are on our way to 1.30 or possibly 1.32 (the bottom of the consolidation in May) after we break 1.26

 

  1. However, I do not think the Bear trend is over. I expect this to be a short covering rally, and short term unwinding of short euro and long gold positions as a result of an asset relocation in regards to the amount of aid reported by the banks in the eurozone being significantly less than expected .

[list][*]Essentially with this new information...


First of all, thank you for the reply and for the deep analysis you have presented.
I’m also of the opinion that we’re heading to 1,32/1,33 and then we will have the confirmation if the bear trend is over. But, since there is a head and shoulders in the daily and weekly charts and if fundamental data keeps being worst than expected, I’m not sure EUR/USD will head down again. Maybe we we’ll see some retracement but not a big one.

I now present my analysis
In general:
- when H4 is overbought/oversold, we see a 300/350 pips retracement
- when Daily chart is overbought/oversold, we see a 400/500 pips retracement
- when the weekly chart is overbought/oversold the trend is over by the 6th week or there is a possibility of a 1000 pips retracement

5 weeks ago (6th week that the weekly chart was oversold) it started to go up. Fundamental data started to come worst than expected for USD and better than expected for EUR.
Also, a big US investment bank started to buy heavily (or unloading shorts).
Also, NZD/USD and AUD/USD had been choppy until that 6th week. At that moment, started to have a more normal volume and build a beautiful double bottom in the daily chart.
(NOTE – Commodity currencies are preferred in bull market trend (rollover advantages).
If “they” (whoever they are) continue to post worst than expected data for USD and better than expected for EUR, I think the trend is indeed over. And with the help of ratings agencies, the job is pretty much done
  • #267,199
  • Jul 5, 2010 10:40am Jul 5, 2010 10:40am
Quoting wannaberich
hope so.

(man, i am sleepy....)
looks like heiken ashi you're using? i think on a day like this you can better take standard bollinger bands and trade up and down when there's a pinbar breaking out of the bands.
  • #267,200
  • Jul 5, 2010 10:57am Jul 5, 2010 10:57am
Slow but nice pa today , at least one can't loss so sudden & have enough time to manage trades . waiting what next , break up at 2532 to 2547 and again either breaks up or down there again towards 2481 , so chances it back from either 2532 and 2547 or continue up as expected before from 2508 , confirmation will take at 2558 break up & hold .
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
3,156 traders viewing now