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  • #266,941
  • Jul 3, 2010 11:34pm Jul 3, 2010 11:34pm
Quoting uraceulose
editriver, it's so good to see you around this weekend. hope all is well with you
All is clear... hope for you too....
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #266,942
  • Jul 4, 2010 12:02am Jul 4, 2010 12:02am
Quoting mfoste1
your thinking is very, very naive....the markets are free, as far as the public believes it. Few entities(the market makers) control commodity prices which can vastly affect the future performance of an economy. For example, when oil was above 120, consumers were cutting back on spending in other areas, ie paying their mortgages, buying non durable goods, and food. Could the fed have prevented the collapse in 08? absolutely....look how much free money was in the economy. Big Banks are borrowing from and inflated money supply at a zero cost...
There's a lot of space between "free markets" and "everything is controlled", and that's where I believe the world lies. I never suggested the markets were free, and that the markets weren't manipulated to a great extent. I just opposed the suggestion that they were tightly controlled. "Control" is a very strong term. There may be an illusion of control, but in the end it's no more than an influence over the mob.
  • #266,943
  • Jul 4, 2010 1:37am Jul 4, 2010 1:37am
Quoting Driver55
Hi guys,
During this period ,...

Hi Driver,

As always I enjoy your analysis, keep it up

Everything is running fine here, some bumps on the road and some maintenance on self discipline but overall, profitable


Question, which platfom are you using?


Here's my views and thoughts for next week.

1. I am closing my long position on EU from 1.1960
2. I am still bull but I am expecting a pullback to 1.2400-1.2460, where I will buy again....

3. One mistake I did on this trade = I should have closed my trade when I saw the pullback on the 21.06.2010 But I got greedy...


I'll just post a chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #266,944
  • Jul 4, 2010 1:45am Jul 4, 2010 1:45am
Quoting Driver55
Hi guys,
During this period ,...
D55, it's good to see you. I hope you're doing well and thank you for sharing.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #266,945
  • Jul 4, 2010 3:19am Jul 4, 2010 3:19am
Quoting Driver55
Hi guys,
During this period , I'm always busy on other fronts, and this is reason why I don't participate in the forum.
Anyway.. I hope you are all well and your work is profitable.
The attached weekly charts refer to the USDCHF and EURUSD markets and report the current situation.
The areas marked in yellow are areas where the market is tensioned.
For next week we have a situation where EURUSD and USDCHF are perfectly aligned.
Both markets are located in those areas. For this reason, I expect a battle between buyers and sellers.
[b][i]The exact...

Thanks for your input Driver - good to see you.

_M_
  • #266,946
  • Jul 4, 2010 4:13am Jul 4, 2010 4:13am
Morning , All my old charts lost doing things carelessly. anyway doing fresh again.

what I see eurusd as medium term bull trend still intact & likely continue though some retracement become over due, range upside 1.2674 & down 1.2353 to 1.2151 before further up perhaps if no crush again.
fontu
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #266,947
  • Jul 4, 2010 7:28am Jul 4, 2010 7:28am
I totally agree with fontu's analysis, I think we should see a bear market this week before shooting up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD4HR.png Size: 86 KB
  • #266,948
  • Jul 4, 2010 8:31am Jul 4, 2010 8:31am
Quoting fontu
Morning , All my old charts lost doing things carelessly. anyway doing fresh again.

what I see eurusd as medium term bull trend still intact & likely continue though some retracement become over due, range upside 1.2674 & down 1.2353 to 1.2151 before further up perhaps if no crush again.
fontu
hi fontu,

hell! now all those sharks know all secrets, and will act against us to destroy over-leveraged traders!

zy: have similar plans, but waiting bad news for EZ because of Murphy Laws about mule that shit fast story...
No crystal ball. I read the cards.
  • #266,949
  • Jul 4, 2010 8:57am Jul 4, 2010 8:57am
daily fx analysts consider the USD to go bullish and the EUR to go bearish. They have been wrong before, but the pair should go down after Thursday and Friday closing high without any fundamentals to support it.
  • #266,950
  • Jul 4, 2010 10:03am Jul 4, 2010 10:03am
Quoting Jhig
Sorry mate, I believe you are referring to the wrong trader. I'm the guy thats always right!

Here you are my friend, you can check my posts this past week: Link1 Link2 Link3

My strategy is not a on trick pony. I trade long term and short term positions. My long term positions is a "buy and hold" method...
I wish I had that much confidence in my trades.
  • #266,951
  • Edited 3:02pm Jul 4, 2010 11:00am | Edited 3:02pm
My case for shorts...

We've been in a downtrend for many months, so that's the direction we'll look to enter if we aren't already in the market.

On the monthly we have a Head and Shoulders patterns forming nicely and the expectation is that it will continue to play out.

On the daily we have hit the 50% fib of a recent high to low point exactly to the pip. This also coincides with a strong daily SR line which was also hit to the pip. So this offers a nice potential point of entry.

As the daily trendline can be drawn in several different fashions, (we are on the 2nd of 3 possibilities) we have yet one more place in which the strong bounce could occur (up at around 1.28-1.29.)

My personal trading... my limit order set at 2609 was hit within 2 pips before price moved around 80 pips in my favor. I am still looking for a much larger move so my current trade has the possibility of being stopped out but that will not be an issue as the larger move is expected to be much greater than any loss due to stoppage.

Some charts showing the 50% fib, the daily SR line, and the monthly HS.

Good luck to all.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #266,952
  • Jul 4, 2010 12:06pm Jul 4, 2010 12:06pm
My PA for the week:

Bulls:
1.2547, 1.2646 (23.6 Fib), 1.2798, 1.2893, 1.2957, 1.3001, 1.3122 (38.2).

Bears:
1.2415, 1.2353, 1.2282, 1.2200, 1.2144

Charts are here.
  • #266,953
  • Jul 4, 2010 12:31pm Jul 4, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting intery
hi fontu,

hell! now all those sharks know all secrets, and will act against us to destroy over-leveraged traders!

zy: have similar plans, but waiting bad news for EZ because of Murphy Laws about mule that shit fast story...
yes , excess of anything is bad & hence excess of bad news may get resistance & turn good. Onece the break point has come it will not work & more accurately in forex too nothing work the same manner all the time .

sterling's law of elasticity may be applied for bad euro /crush it in the same manner.

so anything can happen.over-levearged /small fishes can tolerate more perhaps than not in the push & pull sharks can try.At least can book 10 pips after 200 against.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #266,954
  • Jul 4, 2010 1:47pm Jul 4, 2010 1:47pm
Are you there skyzerFX
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=246641
  • #266,955
  • Jul 4, 2010 1:55pm Jul 4, 2010 1:55pm
Quoting Huey
I totally agree with fontu's analysis, I think we should see a bear market this week before shooting up.
I was wondering what exactly is the basis for the p0 pivot on that pitchfork since its neither a regular fork nor a schiff/modified schiff fork, havent seen a fork like that oO
  • #266,956
  • Jul 4, 2010 2:43pm Jul 4, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting fontu
Morning , All my old charts lost doing things carelessly. anyway doing fresh again.

what I see eurusd as medium term bull trend still intact & likely continue though some retracement become over due, range upside 1.2674 & down 1.2353 to 1.2151 before further up perhaps if no crush again.
fontu
Just check tdsc & seems previous analysis fit properly .

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=114
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #266,957
  • Jul 4, 2010 2:46pm Jul 4, 2010 2:46pm
Looks like its gonna open around the 1.2555 region.
  • #266,958
  • Edited 3:27pm Jul 4, 2010 3:13pm | Edited 3:27pm
fibonacci divergence... if PA depends from geometric symmetry than 1.24 is 50% retrace and strong support for short term... if not lower 1.23. I would long from there, if not, than friday range low play would be enough to manage this.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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No crystal ball. I read the cards.
  • #266,959
  • Jul 4, 2010 3:42pm Jul 4, 2010 3:42pm
Quoting fontu
yes , excess of anything is bad & hence excess of bad news may get resistance & turn good. Onece the break point has come it will not work & more accurately in forex too nothing work the same manner all the time .

sterling's law of elasticity may be applied for bad euro /crush it in the same manner.

so anything can happen.over-levearged /small fishes can tolerate more perhaps than not in the push & pull sharks can try.At least can book 10 pips after 200 against.
fontu
you saved traders hearts, Dr. fontu
No crystal ball. I read the cards.
  • #266,960
  • Jul 4, 2010 4:06pm Jul 4, 2010 4:06pm
WHAUW, opening gap on FXDD already closed.

THAT was swift.
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