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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,941
  • Edited 2:25am Jul 4, 2010 2:23am | Edited 2:25am
Weekly resistance would be better served at .2300 > or < Zone but you get the idea

edit: and I am referring to the opposing idea charts on this page MAC's and Hut's both may be valid - just trying to point this out.

I am leaning toward EUR up and GBP up but need further confirmation
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,942
  • Jul 4, 2010 2:35am Jul 4, 2010 2:35am
Quoting XTrade
Weekly resistance would be better served at .2300 > or < Zone but you get the idea

edit: and I am referring to the opposing idea charts on this page MAC's and Hut's both may be valid - just trying to point this out.

I am leaning toward EUR up and GBP up but need further confirmation
E.C.B trillion dollar bailout is the game changer for the Euro. It might not work in the long run and the currency may still be history in 5 years as many predict however, for now, a 38.2% retrace to 1.31 is not much to expect from the central bank bailout of PIIGS
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  • #3,943
  • Jul 4, 2010 2:40am Jul 4, 2010 2:40am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
1.27? The broken trendline projects price to target 1.31. The recently completed head and shoulders also projects price to 1.31, the exact 38.2% of the move down from 1.5140. With the E.C.B backing it all the way, its going to at least 1.31. You can take that to the bank.

Chart 1 is a week old and shows the trendline break, price projection and the head and shoulder scenario before it even formed.
Chart 2 is current

SAME VIEW
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 31.png Size: 59 KB
GREENIUS
  • #3,944
  • Jul 4, 2010 2:42am Jul 4, 2010 2:42am
True, these are great points.

It may not. Yet the dollar is no bargain either. The US government is printing money to throw at every problem faster than the presses can run, this is not the solution. Both currencies may be doomed in 5 years.

Which first? Take a look at DXY possible rejection

If so this will send Gold to 2k

But for now, and some setups next week.
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
E.C.B trillion dollar bailout is the game changer for the Euro. It might not work in the long run and the currency may still be history in 5 years as many predict however, for now, a 38.2% retrace to 1.31 is not much to expect from the central bank bailout of PIIGS
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY rejected possible..GIF Size: 47 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,945
  • Jul 4, 2010 2:57am Jul 4, 2010 2:57am
That is a tasty crab!

GBP breakout was something as well.

Quoting greenius
SAME VIEW
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,946
  • Edited 6:11pm Jul 4, 2010 3:12am | Edited 6:11pm
MAC,
Here is an updated Weekly potential resistance chart.

Which allows for appx EDIT (typo 300 pips) maybe about 60 pips north until the clash. Otherwise it happens now. EDIT

The little star is the first attempt. clearly it was rejected and the price sank.

Putting E/U resistance at 1.2600+ potentially - EDIT ADD -> then perhaps some retracement of friday's move followed by breach of this level...
X
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_weekly rez view 2.GIF Size: 40 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,947
  • Edited 4:03am Jul 4, 2010 3:39am | Edited 4:03am
Quoting XTrade
MAC,
Here is an updated Weekly potential resistance chart.

Which allows for appx 300 pips north until the clash.

The little star is the first attempt. clearly it was rejected and the price sank.

Putting E/U at 1.2600 potentially
X
Nice chart. There is going to be resistance for sure. That round number in particular is critical as you have accurately determined. 1.2650 is the 23% retrace and should cap this rally for now if price gets above 1.2600. It will be heavily defended by the bears but, they will have to concede if it is taken out. The ensuing short covering rally will cause a huge move as you have suggested.
Quoting XTrade

If the inverse H&S proves to pan out and we close above the resistance line.
The EUR/USD will rocket.
There really isnt much technical resistence between 1.27 and 1.31. Dont forget the fundamental game changer I mentioned that will drive this move which is more important than these techs.
I zoom in to the 15 min chart to trade and will be trading the significant levels in both directions while maintaining a long bias. It doesnt really matter to my trading if my longer term opinion is correct or not, price will bounce and/or break at the significant levels, it always does. I have buy orders in place below the pa at support targeting only 20-30 pips
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  • #3,948
  • Jul 4, 2010 9:17am Jul 4, 2010 9:17am
Quoting SanMiguel
I am not touching the Euro at the moment, too much short squeezing going on and many specs.
Any thoughts on these:
Sell the yen by buying USDJPY.
Buy the CAD by selling USDCAD
Sell the GBP by selling GBPUSD (GBP moved much further than expected to in the last 2 weeks).
Are you sure?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Presentation1.gif Size: 124 KB
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  • #3,949
  • Jul 4, 2010 9:29am Jul 4, 2010 9:29am
Quoting david_akc
Are you sure?
That's the COT index though. The big players are long but the index is showing an overbought scenario, looking at the last few times it got to those levels the GBP reversed its price path.
For the YEN, date needs to go back a bit further.
Attached Image
  • #3,950
  • Jul 4, 2010 6:01pm Jul 4, 2010 6:01pm
Quoting SanMiguel
That's the COT index though. The big players are long but the index is showing an overbought scenario, looking at the last few times it got to those levels the GBP reversed its price path.
For the YEN, date needs to go back a bit further.
I was inform through Peter Bain Forexmentor that if the COT index are at extremities either long r short. It is time for us retail traders to follow the fund managers. I didn't know that. What is the difference between net position and COT index? Which responds upon declaring the COT report last fri?
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  • #3,951
  • Jul 5, 2010 11:17pm Jul 5, 2010 11:17pm
hi guys
seems EURYEN move in a descending channel. the upper line of channel is where two pattern going to form(ab=cd , reciprocal), so if market reaches to illustrated zone, maybe we could count on sell

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/uk...voa9_thumb.gif
  • #3,952
  • Jul 6, 2010 12:15am Jul 6, 2010 12:15am
NZDUSD240

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/op...ro89_thumb.gif
  • #3,953
  • Jul 6, 2010 12:38am Jul 6, 2010 12:38am
GBPUSD240
i think marked prices (1.5290, 1.5380) in attached picture have reversal potential (at least 100 pips)

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/43...oqdc_thumb.gif
  • #3,954
  • Jul 6, 2010 5:26am Jul 6, 2010 5:26am
Quoting david_akc
I was inform through Peter Bain Forexmentor that if the COT index are at extremities either long r short. It is time for us retail traders to follow the fund managers. I didn't know that. What is the difference between net position and COT index? Which responds upon declaring the COT report last fri?
Who is Peter Bain? When any index is at the extremities, to take that advice is suicide. If the net position changes from short to long then you could consider going long but it would be better to have got in before obviously and use that to stay with the trade.
Anyone else have an opinion?
  • #3,955
  • Jul 6, 2010 5:31am Jul 6, 2010 5:31am
Quoting SanMiguel
Who is Peter Bain? When any index is at the extremities, to take that advice is suicide. If the net position changes from short to long then you could consider going long but it would be better to have got in before obviously and use that to stay with the trade.
Anyone else have an opinion?
He does a course. Had good success with big dogs at 1 extreme say heavily long and small traders heavily short so when big dogs started unloading they had some market to shift their positions off to.
  • #3,956
  • Jul 7, 2010 7:42am Jul 7, 2010 7:42am
Quoting SanMiguel
Who is Peter Bain? When any index is at the extremities, to take that advice is suicide. If the net position changes from short to long then you could consider going long but it would be better to have got in before obviously and use that to stay with the trade.
Anyone else have an opinion?
I thought otherwise as shown on the current week. if you notice price for USDX is down down down and Yen is up up up. So far looks good.
Forex Price Action Hacked - Price Action Rockstar
  • #3,957
  • Jul 8, 2010 7:43am Jul 8, 2010 7:43am
hi SHAHAB
really miss your great setups dude
wish you all the best
EURUSD240
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/vb...8i8jw8a909.gif
  • #3,958
  • Jul 8, 2010 7:44am Jul 8, 2010 7:44am
AUDYEN1440
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/qh...yctr1z2j74.gif
  • #3,959
  • Edited 11:56am Jul 8, 2010 11:21am | Edited 11:56am
Quoting Vantage
He does a course. Had good success with big dogs at 1 extreme say heavily long and small traders heavily short so when big dogs started unloading they had some market to shift their positions off to.
Thats not quite right. It is large traders versus commercials. When they are at extremes you bet against the large traders. For example, commercials will be extreme short after a rally because they are hedging against that price rise. The large traders are at extreme long contracts because they have been buying into the rally. The commercials unload their positions as their business deals settle and they no longer need the hedge. This usually causes price to drop, sometimes a little and sometimes alot. Extreme positioning preceeded the EUR/USD drop from 1.51, thats a 3000+ pip market turn. The small traders are irrelevant as they cannot inluence the market
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  • #3,960
  • Jul 8, 2010 2:28pm Jul 8, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting Victory83
NZDUSD240

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/op...ro89_thumb.gif
Hi there

That's impressive, well done
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