EURUSD

Whats your TP?

Should be a nice breakout coming any minute now.

I did some backtesting with a 6 and 14 EMA with 45 minute candlesticks on the EUR/JPY. The backtesting was positive but my trades with live streaming prices gave me losses (using 30 pip stops). What I noticed was that my entry signal would end up being far up in a wave if you will and my exit points would be way further down than the actual point where prices turned around.

I could on for 2 hours about this but I'll give you a brief description of what I saw. Fast signals like the slow stochastics or RSI can give you tons of false signals. With slow signals, you can miss 80% to 90% of a move in certain circumstances and parameters. Using a trendline for example can reduce the negative impact of both contrarian and trend following indicators at the same time.

If you want very nice examples of trendlines, you can look at the "backing trades through charts" by TheLastCoke. You'll also notice he does look at fib levels and support and resistance levels as well.

What I did in my Metatrader4 platform (FXOpen), is have several euro charts with fib levels at various highs and lows. And I often look at 15 min. candlesticks, 30 min, 1 hr, 4hr and daily.

considering the data is very close to forecast as expected and not much different from previous months. the level of significance alse rated low.

i guess the big market mover will be usa data.

but just in case i have small longs.

Thanks for that! Much appreciated!

EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD rallies on short-covering, USD weakness. Time to go short again.

EURUSD rallied on Thursday, breaking above 1.25 as a broad-based USD sell-off combined with risk aversion to lead to an unwind of EURUSD and EUR-cross shorts. While the recent run of weak data out of the US is undoubtedly bad news for the US economy, the implications maybe even greater for the Eurozone.

With fiscal consolidation underway, the weaker countries will have to export their way to health; a faltering US – and potentially even Asia – would only increase the chances of a debt-deflation spiral as falling GDP outweighs the fiscal savings. However markets are not yet trading on this, preferring to focus on the risk-related unwinding. The EUR has been used as a funding currency and the sharp sell-off in global asset markets creates EUR demand as investors close the funding arm of these carry trades.

NFP numbers will be crucial in determining the direction of the markets. A stronger number should see EUR ease, particularly against the AUD and CAD as carry trades are re-established. However a weaker number may not see a commensurate rise in EURUSD as markets acknowledge the risk of a US slowdown to the Eurozone.

Sell on rallies!

Decided to hold my short position in anticipating price will break short today. Daily TF price cont to play inside downward channel.

Placed my protective stop 50 pips back just in case NFP release is against USD

Hello to all i have a short position at 1.3380. i need a advice?
close the position or wait for retrace

wtf netdania?

whee are you getting your netdania chart from? i'm accessing through fxcm and no dixy on that chart

I still don't see any strong sell signal on my 5M PP & MA, so I still vote 'UP' for the NFP News ATM.

Good thing is that it has not been there yesterday...

netdania.com

...and it's still working...

Am I seeing an uptrend on the H1, or is it just me?

i think it will test to break 2530 - 2550. if those SR broken, then 2600 is much welcomed

If your still looking for the HOle Grail
Here it is

There seems to be some resistance at 2530 indeed. I'm waiting for it to break so I can make so profits. Any idea's when? NFP report or earlier?