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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #16,781
  • Jul 1, 2010 11:22am Jul 1, 2010 11:22am
Quoting Liberteh
Let thisone please get back in a downtrend. I loved my profit at that point. Now I'm at -15 PL
per hourly chart ...

for the time being , with the the macd histogram (osma) and stocs position and the very recent bullish 'almost' engulfing candle ... think it might bounce up the 87.00 .. it had dropped almost 150 pips for today .. therefore it might take a breather for now and not break the strong support of 87.00

but then anything can happen ...

your money , ur risk ...only u know why u entered ur trade and what ur stop loss is ...

caveat emptor

good luck
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  • #16,782
  • Jul 1, 2010 11:32am Jul 1, 2010 11:32am
is it a retrace ?

will it follow the fibo ?

will it hit resistance at 38% or 50% ?
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  • #16,783
  • Jul 1, 2010 11:34am Jul 1, 2010 11:34am
As I said several months ago, we should be good for one more push lower to between 87-85. Sad for me that I bailed @ 89.30 after holding for months. O well, today is another day. I have now flipped. I have one long @ 88.20 and anoter @ 87.10. Will take another if given an opportunity in the low 86's. Target somewhere above 90---have not decided yet. Looks like I may be in for another multi-month position. At least this one has positive swap. Good trades to all!!!
  • #16,784
  • Jul 1, 2010 11:45am Jul 1, 2010 11:45am
If the yen's appreciation has been to extensive, I think the swissie would be a better currency to go short against.
  • #16,785
  • Jul 1, 2010 11:48am Jul 1, 2010 11:48am
WHAT'S HAPPENING?
HERE SOMEONE STILL HAS A explains the movement?
  • #16,786
  • Jul 1, 2010 11:54am Jul 1, 2010 11:54am
A POSSIBLE ANSWER
http://www.forexlive.com/116669/all/...inues-recovery
  • #16,787
  • Jul 1, 2010 12:03pm Jul 1, 2010 12:03pm
well, macd turned too ...

stocs flaring up ..

probably range ..

don't take my word for it ... this is a very short term view ..
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  • #16,788
  • Jul 1, 2010 12:07pm Jul 1, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting TheArcher
well, macd turned too ...

stocs flaring up ..

probably range ..

don't take my word for it ... this is a very short term view ..


this looks like a "mirage ".... the dollar reacted? has some hand pulling up?
what level of resistance is important? I've lost the history of today, yesterday, etc ..
  • #16,789
  • Jul 1, 2010 12:26pm Jul 1, 2010 12:26pm
Well, if the pair manages a daily close above 88, that would be a very bullish sign.
  • #16,790
  • Jul 1, 2010 1:54pm Jul 1, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting Kas1
...stopped out on this one...made it back plus more on chjp...now that pair has been movin up for a while...might try to short uj from 88563 resistance if the signs are there...support around 88143
downward sentiment...from the monthly I dont see why it couldnt drop to 86328 support...resistance around 89657...charts only for me
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  • #16,791
  • Jul 1, 2010 10:07pm Jul 1, 2010 10:07pm
Quoting Kas1
downward sentiment...from the monthly I dont see why it couldnt drop to 86328 support...resistance around 89657...charts only for me
http://news.finance.yahoo.co.jp/deta...02-mosf-stocks

look at the visual and verbal intervention!
translating this site, from Japanese to English, the companies did all their planning for the year 2010 to the dollar to 90 yen. The euro is expected to 120 ~ 125 yen.

http://news.finance.yahoo.co.jp/deta...02-mosf-stocks

Dollar yen exchange rate, its year highs in both the euro.

きょうは逆に 小幅円安となっているが、欧州、米国とも財政、景気の先行き不安が解消されていないだけに、先行きさらに円高が進む可能性もある。

Today has been slightly weaker yen Conversely, Europe and the United States with financial, not only eliminates the uncertainty of the economy, the yen could further future advances.

２日の東京市 場の主要輸出企業の株価は高安まちまちだが、円高の進行は収益にマイナスに響いてくる。

Tokyo market shares of major exporters but vary Takayasu 2, the yen's appreciation has a negative earnings boom.

以下は主要企業の１０年度の為替想定レートだが、これから行われる１０年４－６月期の決算で軒並み見直 しに進む可能性が高い。

The following year, but the exchange rate assumption of 10 major companies, made 10 years from now most likely go 4-6 in the closing months of the review across the board.

単にレートの 変更だけでなく、生産のさらなる海外移転など、円高対策もより強化されることが予想される。

Just as well as changes in rates, outsourcing of more production is expected to be even more strengthened against the yen.

企業名　コー ド　想定レート・ドル、ユーロ日立 < 6501 > 　　　　　　　８５円、１２０円東芝 < 6502 > 　　　　　　　９０円、１２０円三菱電 < 6503 > 　　　　　　９０円、１２５円ＮＥＣ < 6701 > 　　　　　　９０円、１２０円富士通 < 6702 > 　　　　　　９０円、１２５円パナソニック < 6752 > 　　　９０円、１２０円シャープ < 6753 > 　　　　　９０円、１２５円ソニー < 6758 > 　　　　　　９０円、１２５円キヤノン < 7751 > 　　　　　９０円、１２０円リコー < 7752 > 　　　　　　９０円、１２０円日産自 < 7201 > 　　　　　　９０円、１２０円トヨタ < 7203 > 　　　　　　９０円、１２５円ホンダ < 7267 > 　　　　　　９０円、１２０円

Expected rate of dollar code, company name, Hitachi euro < 6501 > 85 yen, 120 yen, Toshiba Corp. < 6502 > 90 yen to 120 yen, Mitsubishi Electric < 6503 > 90 yen, 125 yen, NEC < 6701 > 90 yen, 120 yen, Fujitsu < 6702 > 90 yen, 125 yen, Panasonic < 6752 > 90 yen, 120 yen, Sharp < 6753 > 90 yen, 125 yen, Sony < 6758 > 90 yen, 125 yen Canon < 7751 > 90 yen, 120 yen Ricoh < 7752 > 90 yen, 120 yen Nissan Motor < 7201 > 90 yen, 120 yen Toyota < 7203 > 90 yen, 125 yen Honda < 7267 > 90 yen, 120 yen
  • #16,792
  • Jul 1, 2010 10:21pm Jul 1, 2010 10:21pm
Kind of funny to watch. Many in Japan want a weaker Yen. Many in USA want a weaker dollar. Who will win?



I was so tempted to go long earlier when it crossed under 87, but I thought perhaps my historical analysis to the downside was in play. However, if the upside historical analysis is true, this thing will have a nice upside over the coming months.

Think for now I'm watching to see if it hits the 89 area or retreats.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #16,793
  • Jul 1, 2010 11:06pm Jul 1, 2010 11:06pm
Still nice in place. no crash yet. :-)
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  • #16,794
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:59am Jul 2, 2010 12:59am
Quote from business week in an article talking about how BoJ will intervene.

"Morgan Stanley predicts the yen will weaken to 98 per dollar by year-end"

Link: http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...nley-says.html

I'm still waiting to see north of 89 and prefer it closing on 90 given all the historical stuff I showed over the past fews days.

Only expectation matters . . .
  • #16,795
  • Jul 2, 2010 2:14am Jul 2, 2010 2:14am
Quoting RebelRed
Quote from business week in an article talking about how BoJ will intervene.

"Morgan Stanley predicts the yen will weaken to 98 per dollar by year-end"

Link: http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...nley-says.html

I'm still waiting to see north of 89 and prefer it closing on 90 given all the historical stuff I showed over the past fews days.


Very interesting this news! now let's wait for the end of the year and celebrate Christmas! be?
  • #16,796
  • Jul 2, 2010 2:16am Jul 2, 2010 2:16am
Let's do a search??
Have someone with long position (open) here, right now?:nerd:
  • #16,797
  • Jul 2, 2010 2:24am Jul 2, 2010 2:24am
I'm neither. I was short and got that finished. I did a long position and exited with a small gain.

Right now I'm watching for things to iron out. Too much uncertainty at the moment. While it looks like we will be enjoying a UJ at 92 and higher eventually, the short term is likely to be rocky.

NFP in hours from now could send UJ down a lot. Will that trigger BoJ intervention?
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #16,798
  • Jul 2, 2010 3:17am Jul 2, 2010 3:17am
Quoting RebelRed
I'm neither. I was short and got that finished. I did a long position and exited with a small gain.

Right now I'm watching for things to iron out. Too much uncertainty at the moment. While it looks like we will be enjoying a UJ at 92 and higher eventually, the short term is likely to be rocky.

NFP in hours from now could send UJ down a lot. Will that trigger BoJ intervention?
I know very well these Japanese, they are silent and treacherous! Japanese pride would not allow an intervention, but one possible manifestation in 86 ~ 87 would trigger its KAMP take action with the market, but could be starting next week!
  • #16,799
  • Jul 2, 2010 3:48am Jul 2, 2010 3:48am
Quoting Mary Silvert
I know very well these Japanese, they are silent and treacherous! Japanese pride would not allow an intervention, but one possible manifestation in 86 ~ 87 would trigger its KAMP take action with the market, but could be starting next week!
I know them well too....I work for a Japanese owned and run company here in NZ. Saving Face is of primary concern to them and it's a very interesting phemononem to see in action. It's illogical and antiquated but that is one way that the Japanese culture is still in the dark ages, yet in other ways it is well advanced.

You're right I'm sure, they will be reluctant to intervene directly, but they will do it if they have to. We can see through various announcements they are indirectly intervening now, by way of tryig to 'talk down' the Yen. NFP will be upon us soon and then we'll see whether further action is need from Japan.

So, no trading for me tonight, I'll just be a spectator!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,800
  • Jul 2, 2010 3:57am Jul 2, 2010 3:57am
I followed this thread is quite long and I just become new members today,I just made $2000 over yesterday from USDJPY movement

Keep sharing
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