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  • #265,601
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:12pm Jun 30, 2010 11:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72
apply it to china. we are 20 years into high percentages of growth. some housing prices have gone up 20% a month. divide 20 into 72 and this is how long it takes for money (house) to double in value. so in a aprox 3.5 months a home in some areas has doubled in price. at some point these homes will cost more then they can sell for. at that point the mortgage holder (bank) will fail. 20% is high and not the norm but even at smaller amounts its still out rages. for the ones who bought last. when the...
Much clearer, thanks.

So essentially a mess so large that the U.S. housing B.S. will look like it's not even on the radar screen.

To play devil's advocate, wouldn't it make more sense for China to spend their USD surplus while it's worth something? Even if it meant having empty buildings?
Not all sins are created equal
  • #265,602
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:13pm Jun 30, 2010 11:13pm
Quoting Spsantos
s'up bro....?? long time no see here...

which only proves you have more sense than most of us.
FUBAR...
  • #265,603
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:15pm Jun 30, 2010 11:15pm
China is going to have a really good "soft landing".

The difference will be that the Chinese government has purposely "puncture" the bubble instead of having hard to control "panic" situation.

Given the "quickness" of the Chinese government to change gears to handle economic issues, this will lead to a control break of the bubble that will preserve a lot of the asset and will not lead to massive financial disruption nor Housing crisis like we saw in the states.


How do I know this?

I know this because I was told by some very senior officials in Beijing last month over a dinner.
  • #265,604
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:17pm Jun 30, 2010 11:17pm
Spsantos bringing sanity to the house

Good to see you.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #265,605
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:18pm Jun 30, 2010 11:18pm
Quoting 4xmaker
How do I know this?

I know this because I was told by some very senior officials in Beijing last month over a dinner.
Seriously? Not meaning to be rude but "it's true because I read it on the internet" doesn't exactly cut it.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #265,606
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:20pm Jun 30, 2010 11:20pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Much clearer, thanks.

So essentially a mess so large that the U.S. housing B.S. will look like it's not even on the radar screen.

To play devil's advocate, wouldn't it make more sense for China to spend their USD surplus while it's worth something? Even if it meant having empty buildings?
u.s. housing bubble aint a pimple on china's ass. now whats the catalyst to start the last guy not to be able to afford his home? price to high, economic slowdown,
unlike the rest of the world 5% growth in china would be a depression.. a lot of pissed off unemployed youngsters w/o a girl to relieve pressure.

baltic dry shipping is down
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #265,607
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:21pm Jun 30, 2010 11:21pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Seriously? Not meaning to be rude but "it's true because I read it on the internet" doesn't exactly cut it.
Yes, seriously. You don't have to believe me if you don't want to, but I know more than that and will share more if the discussion about China gets deeper when necessary.
  • #265,608
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:22pm Jun 30, 2010 11:22pm
Quoting 4xmaker
China is going to have a really good "soft landing".

The difference will be that the Chinese government has purposely "puncture" the bubble instead of having hard to control "panic" situation.

Given the "quickness" of the Chinese government to change gears to handle economic issues, this will lead to a control break of the bubble that will preserve a lot of the asset and will not lead to massive financial disruption nor Housing crisis like we saw in the states.


How do I know this?

I know this because I was told by some very senior...
wanna bet? not the same china officials that always tell us the truth?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #265,609
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:25pm Jun 30, 2010 11:25pm
Quoting 4xmaker
Yes, seriously. You don't have to believe me if you don't want to, but I know more than that and will share more if the discussion about China gets deeper when necessary.
It's been a long time since I've been in China and it was already a changing country.

I do agree that the "quickness" of the Chinese government to change gears, as you so well put it, helps them. They don't need to debate ad nauseam before making decisions which helps getting things done.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #265,610
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:25pm Jun 30, 2010 11:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
wanna bet? not the same china officials that always tell us the truth?
Not a fair argument Gator. All governments lie.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #265,611
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:26pm Jun 30, 2010 11:26pm
AUD on the increase-why after the bad news about china it should be going down???
  • #265,612
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:28pm Jun 30, 2010 11:28pm
Quoting chowur
AUD on the increase-why after the bad news about china it should be going down???
Because Kevin Rudd is plotting to take over the AUD market.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #265,613
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:29pm Jun 30, 2010 11:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
wanna bet?
I would have not bet you 2 months ago, but now I have a much clearer knowledge of what is going on China, and the misconception of what real estate means and is in China. I am willing to bet you.

Let's talk constructively regarding the China problem:

first of all, we need to understand the difference of real estate of China and the rest of world. It actually has a very very big difference.
-On the surface, China is a Developing country, and not a developed country. Therefore, extreme "differences" in the norm of growth will always be seen due to the need to rapid growth.

-Deeper down, Real estate in China has only seen 2-3 decades of actual "ownership" and how Real Estate was acquired is different from the Western world. In a more correct term, it was actually distributed in many many parts of Chinese Real Estate owners.

I'll let everyone digest this first, and I can add more points when I hear some responses from people.
  • #265,614
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:29pm Jun 30, 2010 11:29pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Not a fair argument Gator. All governments lie.
so they did let your go?
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #265,615
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:30pm Jun 30, 2010 11:30pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Because Kevin Rudd is plotting to take over the AUD market.
POOR Kevin....sobhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
  • #265,616
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:32pm Jun 30, 2010 11:32pm
Quoting ak4x
s'up bro....?? long time no see here...

which only proves you have more sense than most of us.
Hi ak, all is well now, i've reduced my trading activity to a longer term due to some health issues with one of my siblings, nothing too serious, but it requires some attention for some time. Hence i changed my daily habbits, some of them being related to participating here...

I keep a few trades, but honestly i'm only checking daily and weekly charts right now, with an occasional 4H for a possible entry when I plan a pending order.

At the moment I have a long on EUR/USD that's about 200 pips in the red , my stop point is below 1.16, and as i don't have a boss that makes me close my trades, i'll guess i'll hold down to those.
Also my long EUR/CHF is still on, swap is paying off, but still almost 800 pips in the red, that's what you get when you believe historical levels don't do what they're "supposed" to do .

I've also been doing some USD/CAD and Cable trades that have been quite stable, cable is on a nice trend, rather easy to catch .

If all goes well, in September i'll resume "normal" activity, meaning getting back to some weird comments and trading more often.
Traders are smartasses
  • #265,617
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:32pm Jun 30, 2010 11:32pm
Quoting 4xmaker
I know this because I was told by some very senior officials in Beijing last month over a dinner.
Good luck to them. Hopefully, unlike Keynesians, they'll learn the error of their ways quickly and allow the economic collapse to occur. Get it out of the way immediately and it'll be smaller and shorter.
What our brilliant faux Keynesian government officials have done is simply dug a deeper hole in a failed attempt to avoid the inevitable. Trying to solve a problem caused by excessive debt by taking on more debt? Insanity.
To quote Von Mises: 'There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit (debt) expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.'


* I used 'faux Keynesians' because Keynes' theory required government to run surpluses in good economic times.
Keynesianism is nice in theory, but doesn't work in the real world. It's a lot like communism; great form of government in theory - doesn't work in the real world. Man's greed is not taken into account in either communism or Keynesianism.
  • #265,618
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:33pm Jun 30, 2010 11:33pm
Quoting chowur
AUD on the increase-why after the bad news about china it should be going down???
Im wondering if THEY are going to do the ol pump and dump??
Any thoughts???
  • #265,619
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:36pm Jun 30, 2010 11:36pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Good luck to them....

I personally find China to be a Weirdo "monster" like economic power that the standard "capitalism" is having a hard time controlling.
  • #265,620
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:37pm Jun 30, 2010 11:37pm
Quoting chowur
POOR Kevin....sobhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
Poor Kevin my formerly fat ass. He wanted to impose a 40% mining tax and just got dragged out on his ear to the curb.

Check out what happened to the AUD over the past weeks to see how it affected Australia. Good riddance.
Not all sins are created equal
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