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  • #265,581
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:44pm Jun 30, 2010 10:44pm
China's housing bubble is getting VERY close to blowing up. It makes the US housing bubble look like a bunch of amateurs. The Aussies don't have as bad of a bubble but it's getting ready to pop also.
  • #265,582
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:45pm Jun 30, 2010 10:45pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
China's housing bubble is getting VERY close to blowing up. It makes the US housing bubble look like a bunch of amateurs. The Aussies don't have as bad of a bubble but it's getting ready to pop also.
the rule of 72 will have no mercy on china.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #265,583
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:46pm Jun 30, 2010 10:46pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
China's housing bubble is getting VERY close to blowing up. It makes the US housing bubble look like a bunch of amateurs. The Aussies don't have as bad of a bubble but it's getting ready to pop also.
see

News message h3 { font-size:14px; } p { font-size:12px; } (IGM)Besides China's Jun manufactures PMI, HSBC China Jun PMI (released much earlier) fell to a 14-month low of 50.4...

Besides China's Jun manufactures PMI, HSBC China Jun PMI (released much earlier) fell to a 14-month low of 50.4 from 52.7 in May due to decline in new orders and production. [DLR/YEN] is at session low, dealing with the 88.00 protection orders, while the Nikkei-225 starts its PM session one step lower.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #265,584
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:47pm Jun 30, 2010 10:47pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
China's housing bubble is getting VERY close to blowing up. It makes the US housing bubble look like a bunch of amateurs. The Aussies don't have as bad of a bubble but it's getting ready to pop also.
Canada too.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #265,585
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:47pm Jun 30, 2010 10:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
hump buster
News message...
thx man
  • #265,586
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:47pm Jun 30, 2010 10:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
the rule of 72 will have no mercy on china.
Please Gator, pretend I'm a retarded monkey and explain that to me.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #265,587
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:49pm Jun 30, 2010 10:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
China Manufacturing Slows Again Amid Growth Concern


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...h-cooling.html
i posted a few days ago i had a feeling some bad chinese news was coming..didn't know it would come this soon but it'll work
  • #265,588
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:51pm Jun 30, 2010 10:51pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Please Gator, pretend I'm a retarded monkey and explain that to me.
he just means i think that they can't keep building a new cubicle for each citizen...real estate bubble. holding everyones debt creates bubbles everywhere else that buys stuff from them. they slow down it kills australia cause that's who buys the stuff...i don't know the true definition of the rule of 72 but more or less I believe he's getting at the bubble is gonna burst...they're people are killing theirselves because of the work and it doesn't seem that they've ever really cared too much for their people, employment bubble(currency unpeg helps but it hasn't yet for some reason)

edit: it would be cool though to see the G man himself break it down a little better tho ocourse
  • #265,589
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:55pm Jun 30, 2010 10:55pm
Quoting uraceulose
yep...i'll move stop to some profit way before then..I also plan on taking a long when I close this trade..where ever I actually close it...i think we see one more drop down on some china bad news within the next few weeks. I don't know what the news is and I don't have a "tip"...just a hunch
bad news china post here...this was a lot of the reason i was looking so hard this weekend to short au at the beginning of the week
  • #265,590
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:56pm Jun 30, 2010 10:56pm
Quoting uraceulose
he just means i think that they can't keep building a new cubicle for each citizen...real estate bubble. holding everyones debt creates bubbles everywhere else that buys stuff from them. they slow down it kills australia cause that's who buys the stuff...i don't know the true definition of the rule of 72 but more or less I believe he's getting at the bubble is gonna burst...they're people are killing theirselves because of the work and it doesn't seem that they've ever really cared too much for their people, employment bubble(currency unpeg helps...
I understand that it's a bubble filled with crap that's going to burst.

The rule of 72 is to measure how long an investment takes to double up. Take 72 and divide it by the interest rate.

What I don't get is how the rule of 72 fits into this.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #265,591
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:57pm Jun 30, 2010 10:57pm
Quoting Jay Walker
I understand that it's a bubble filled with crap that's going to burst.

The rule of 72 is to measure how long an investment takes to double up. Take 72 and divide it by the interest rate.

What I don't get is how the rule of 72 fits into this.
I'm also confused about the relationship.
  • #265,592
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:59pm Jun 30, 2010 10:59pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Rule of 72 is that an investment doubles with ~72% of interest. 8% x 9 yrs, 7% x 10 yrs, 6% x 12 yrs, etc. Roughly works out to doubling your money.
right on man. thx. i just did a little search..guess theres' a rule of 70 and 69 too

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72

edit: so basically, every aspect of the chinese economy is growing at an impossible pace to be sustained
  • #265,593
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:01pm Jun 30, 2010 11:01pm
Quoting uraceulose
right on man. thx. i just did a little search..guess theres' a rule of 70 and 69 too

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72
A rule of 69 now? A slip of the tongue and you're in deep shit.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #265,594
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:03pm Jun 30, 2010 11:03pm
Quoting Jay Walker
A rule of 69 now? A slip of the tongue and you're in deep shit.
yeah...hopefully that post isnt' extracted lol, it's a real rule I swear...just one of those double meanings i guess

edit: on a more serious note..driver55 told us months ago that 1.0624 would be a reference for a "LONG time"..as high as we got, i didn't think we'd get back down that low this soon..we are getting close though and I'll try building some longs starting there on down to 1.0500

rotflmao at the post below
  • #265,595
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:04pm Jun 30, 2010 11:04pm
Well, it shouldn't be extracted, My smartassness should remain for the ages.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #265,596
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:04pm Jun 30, 2010 11:04pm
starting 6/29 at 7 15 pm central standard time(chicago) on a 15 minute chart, you will see a head and shoulders pattern it broke this afternoon and should make it down to 1.2160
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #265,597
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:06pm Jun 30, 2010 11:06pm
Ah, he must be referring to China's hyper growth rate over the last several years.

Edit: sorry on the edit to the previous post you quoted; it essentially stated the same thing as Jay's post.
  • #265,598
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:06pm Jun 30, 2010 11:06pm
Price printing 2200..

Will take half off my half lot "hunch short" at 2296 (LOD + spread) and set SL to +2 and TP to 2172.

Methinks it'll hit something sooner or later...


Moral of this story will be "it's not sellin at the Bottom if it goes Lower..."


FUBAR...
  • #265,599
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:07pm Jun 30, 2010 11:07pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Please Gator, pretend I'm a retarded monkey and explain that to me.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72
apply it to china. we are 20 years into high percentages of growth. some housing prices have gone up 20% a month. divide 20 into 72 and this is how long it takes for money (house) to double in value. so in a aprox 3.5 months a home in some areas has doubled in price. at some point these homes will cost more then they can sell for. at that point the mortgage holder (bank) will fail. 20% is high and not the norm but even at smaller amounts its still out rages. for the ones who bought last. when the last ones in cant afford their homes it will have a domino affect. on the entire economy.

as of 6 months ago there's enough office space in china, for every man women and child to have a cubicle. yet more is being built each day. rule of 72 takes no prisoners.. this is it in the simplest terms. "mule that shit fast don't shit long"
time is not a friend of china atm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #265,600
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:08pm Jun 30, 2010 11:08pm
Quoting Jay Walker
A rule of 69 now? A slip of the tongue and you're in deep shit.
sh*t happens
Traders are smartasses
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