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  • #264,781
  • Jun 29, 2010 10:34am Jun 29, 2010 10:34am
1040 so close
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #264,782
  • Jun 29, 2010 10:36am Jun 29, 2010 10:36am
Quoting gatorinla
will tripple bottom hold today? well we got a bad nfp expected. we will just have to wait n c. .. adp tomorrow and quarters/monthly end
back below flash crash
  • #264,783
  • Jun 29, 2010 11:14am Jun 29, 2010 11:14am
Hey folks. Been spending some with GU. Made some notes this morning about EU goes as follows:

Daily: dying bull, never made it past 0 line MACD. Fairly corrective of move past long term 50% fib. Will test below.

QQE verging on downward cross. MACD same deal.

H4: all crosses down. MACD expanding below 0 line. Bounce off 50% fibo of local bull.

retrace numbers: 2229 19%, 2243 23%, 2264 30.9%

H1 full on sell. Expanding MACD below 0. Stopped at S3.

Conclusion: Big Bear just begun. Nothing to do but wait for correction and sell.
  • #264,784
  • Jun 29, 2010 11:23am Jun 29, 2010 11:23am
Quoting stevefx
Hey folks....
I do agree with your post in the part that US equity is in for a hard landing. Otherwise though, on the currency front and especially in the longer term things don't look so certain, with T-bonds getting hard hit by China. We are in for interesting times, both economically and politically, and man, the situation of the US doesn't seem too good. Actually it seems abysmal! Oo I'm not happy about it, but seems that the facts point to this.
  • #264,785
  • Jun 29, 2010 11:24am Jun 29, 2010 11:24am
Quoting stevefx
Hey folks....
why w8 when u can take money on correction ... : )
  • #264,786
  • Jun 29, 2010 11:24am Jun 29, 2010 11:24am
Quoting T@rantula
I need to agree with u. Look at Hurst Channel and TLs. Also there is a hidden bull on momentum h4 tf. I closed my short at 2160, I predicted 2130



Attachment
What is the name of the indicator which is in aqua colour?
  • #264,787
  • Jun 29, 2010 11:33am Jun 29, 2010 11:33am
Quoting Masrim
I do agree with your post in the part that US equity is in for a hard landing. Otherwise though, on the currency front and especially in the longer term things don't look so certain, with T-bonds getting hard hit by China. We are in for interesting times, both economically and politically, and man, the situation of the US doesn't seem too good. Actually it seems abysmal! Oo I'm not happy about it, but seems that the facts point to this.
I hear you-this is a simple reading of the techs. I don't want to make myself look foolish trying to talk about fundies. From what I understand though, the EZ economy is linked to the US in such a way that if things turn bad for us, they turn worse for them, and in either or both cases the dollar gets stronger for lack of something better to invest in. IE only someone truly optimistic about the global economy, or corporate media's ability to make the global economy look good, would be buying euro's...Correct me if I'm wrong-I am here to learn. Thanks.
  • #264,788
  • Jun 29, 2010 11:37am Jun 29, 2010 11:37am
Quoting vanyxster
why w8 when u can take money on correction ... : )
What I've discovered about myself as a trader is that my trades and trading methods require structure in order to be successful over the long haul. Trading this way and that way has done me no good. So, I keep my trades in line with what I consider to be the trend. Trade less, make more, hopefully.
  • #264,789
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:15pm Jun 29, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting stevefx
Hey folks. Been spending some with GU. Made some notes this morning about EU goes as follows:

Daily: dying bull, never made it past 0 line MACD. Fairly corrective of move past long term 50% fib. Will test below.

QQE verging on downward cross. MACD same deal.

H4: all crosses down. MACD expanding below 0 line. Bounce off 50% fibo of local bull.

retrace numbers: 2229 19%, 2243 23%, 2264 30.9%

H1 full on sell. Expanding MACD below 0. Stopped at S3.

Conclusion: Big Bear just begun. Nothing to do but wait for correction and sell.
SteveFX
great observations - thanks for sharing.
  • #264,790
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:22pm Jun 29, 2010 12:22pm
1038 = GAME OVER.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #264,791
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:22pm Jun 29, 2010 12:22pm
Quoting DMA Trader
1040 so close
Here you go, just passed it (-;
  • #264,792
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:22pm Jun 29, 2010 12:22pm
last hour sell-off?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #264,793
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:23pm Jun 29, 2010 12:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
last hour sell-off?
Hmmm.
  • #264,794
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:25pm Jun 29, 2010 12:25pm
i want to see the close.

we have a new intraday low for 2010
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #264,795
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:27pm Jun 29, 2010 12:27pm
Price seems to be stuck at 1.22. I'm still holding my shorts as the daily timeframe suggest more shorts to come. My outlook/target is 1.21. We may not reach that number until after the Asian session has finished. Just my personal take on things.

On another note, GbpUsd seems to have been the pair to trade today. I haven't trade GU in months and may have to add it to my basket of currencies as I made a quick 50 pips on the up run from it today.
  • #264,796
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:27pm Jun 29, 2010 12:27pm
to my AUDUSD is broke, it's been stuck on the same bar for the last 3 hours, on the hourly chart.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #264,797
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:30pm Jun 29, 2010 12:30pm
Expecting price at 1.2175 with H4 candle low , close 1:35 hr left & bull to start .This 9th candle close will constitute bull set up perfection in H4 tf & already buy set perfection in h1 ,so a retracemnt up before more bull due .

Inverted HS H1 & below tf and Bullish hammar with lots of buyers H4 tf .

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #264,798
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:30pm Jun 29, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
last hour sell-off?
H1 just presented another bearish reversal bar near whole number level 1.22. It could be a valid reversal signal? I'm still holding my short and it's currently in the red. If this reversal signal plays out, I'll be looking to add to my position in hope price can finally reach and break past 1.2150.
  • #264,799
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:31pm Jun 29, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting Masrim
I do agree with your post in the part that US equity is in for a hard landing. Otherwise though, on the currency front and especially in the longer term things don't look so certain, with T-bonds getting hard hit by China. We are in for interesting times, both economically and politically, and man, the situation of the US doesn't seem too good. Actually it seems abysmal! Oo I'm not happy about it, but seems that the facts point to this.
Quoting stevefx
I hear you-this is a simple reading of the techs. I don't want to make myself look foolish trying to talk about fundies. From what I understand though, the EZ economy is linked to the US in such a way that if things turn bad for us, they turn worse for them, and in either or both cases the dollar gets stronger for lack of something better to invest in. IE only someone truly optimistic about the global economy, or corporate media's ability to make the global economy look good, would be buying euro's...Correct me if I'm wrong-I am here to learn. Thanks....
I'm a neophyte with the technicals, but I understand the fundamentals well. The trend over the last couple of years has been risk on - money flows out of the USD and JPY; risk off - money flows into the USD and JPY.

I chose to go long one the strongest currencies - the USD and short the weakest currency - the EUR. (There are a couple of other minor currencies in worse shape but they're not nearly as liquid).

I understand Masrim's concern about the US economy and share those concerns. However, the USD (and JPY) is the best looking horse in the glue factory.
If you're looking at this strictly USD vs EUR, there's no contest that the Eurozone is in far worse shape than the US. Yes, we're in terrible shape. But there are things that have not yet hit the mainstream about the Eurozone which would make anyone wonder why it hasn't collapsed yet. Hint: take a look at European bank leverage. I know at least one German bank that has leverage (on their mark to model assets) in the triple digits.
I don't know if you understand the accounting procedures behind level I, level 2, and level 3 assets, but it was what brought down Bear Stearns and Lehman.
At this point in time, I'd venture to guess that most of Europe's banks are technically insolvent. That doesn't mean that they can't recover; I looked at Citigroup's 10K and 10Qs back in 2008 and it was easy to see that they were insolvent. Viktor Pandit worked some miracles and was able to revive Citigroup - with a LARGE capital injection from both the government and secondary offerings. European banks haven't gotten capital injections, but they have neither delevered (their leverage ratios have actually increased), have not written down much bad debt, and have not gotten new capital injections.

I was going to go after the GBP after the EUR, but it looks like Cameron is getting the UK's house in order. I expect to see the same actions here in the US after the elections. It's already happening, as the GOP has been able to filibuster a lot of excess spending bills.

There are so many different aspects of the Eurozone that are in deep kimshi that I could write for pages, each one of them a huge red flag. Their bank problem is only one of the issues. Shorting the Euro and walking away from your account for the rest of the summer is almost guaranteed to make you money.
  • #264,800
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:33pm Jun 29, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
last hour sell-off?
Last 15 minutes are the ones to watch. I'm not in front of a TV but if Maria Bartaroma starts talking about a lot of sell order imbalances in the last 15 minutes, you be almost guaranteed a bloody close.

Edit: You can bet that there's going to be a lot of money thrown at guarding the 1040 line.
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