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EURUSD

  • #263,981
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:05am Jun 28, 2010 8:05am
divergence is forming in the 5min..
  • #263,982
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:05am Jun 28, 2010 8:05am
Quoting ptistrader
Yup you are right, but it will take may be years to happen as your chart is on montly basis.

Hope you are there when it happens. I am also waiting for it to happen.

When we break below these consolidations you'll notice the euro usually falls about 1000 pips or 10k and then consolidates for a few months. It could actually be much quicker than we think if we get below that support line.
December: Fall from 1.52 to 1.42 basically 1000 pips or 10k 1 lot in 3 weeks
next we get our 4 week consolidation
January: Fall from 1.45 to 1.35 in basically 1000 pips or 10k 1lot in 4 weeks. followed by a
10 week consolidation
April: Fall from 1.35 to 1.1850 basically 1,650 pips or $16,500 1lot in 7 weeks.

Conclusion: The breakouts are netting about an average of 1000 pips + on this pair with the trade averaging out to 1 months time. If we get a breakout below this support line you could very well net half of those 2,000 pips in a months time as it drops around 1,000 pips again before consolidating. Of course if you are patient and wait for the breakouts on the higher timeframe charts the currency(and almost anything traded in general) tends to move much more quickly.
  • #263,983
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:09am Jun 28, 2010 8:09am
Quoting Maxsmart
23k in 6 months to a year isnt bad for one trade as long as you can make other trades in your account while that one is operating and If you know how to add on and compound the trade to get even more than 23k. Id wait till we break below the support line though before I take that trade. Since on the dailys there is still the possibility of an inverted Head and Shoulders. Fundamentally though, I do think we will see euro/dollar parity or close to near it in the next 6 months to a year but I cant ignore the inverted head and shoulders threat.
will be interesting to see.. maybe it's still a bit early for this trade, i think a better entry on the short term will be above 1.24, maybe even 1.2550

forex is tricky..
  • #263,984
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:15am Jun 28, 2010 8:15am
Back , bottle neck problem ? not even up to 2410 nor 2283 but reached 2329 perfectly though & now will expect 2283 before 2410 & if further break next to 2169 . Bull is tired but still standing with big head and lean & thin limbs. do or die , otherwise boring .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #263,985
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:16am Jun 28, 2010 8:16am
Any news behind the EURCHF blowing up? Down below 1.34 currently; another lifetime low.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...28-704372.html
  • #263,986
  • Edited 8:28am Jun 28, 2010 8:17am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting Morita
Just touching the 23.6 Fib level from the previous 2-week uptrend @ 1.2326. But we're below a major level that Gator pointed out, also a wedge withing a steady downtrend. I think we're gonna be seeing 2308-231x levels soon
Not picking on you....honest....but you might want to google some wedges, and take another look at what you have there. Also, we hit the 38.2 fib last week. We are under several of Gator's levels, and thus far we're making lower highs and lower lows on the small timeframe charts. Slap some Bollinger Bands on a 5M and you will notice that they have narrowed to less than 20 pips.....a squeeze indicating low volitility and consolidation....albeit for the time being we're grinding lower. Good luck!
  • #263,987
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:18am Jun 28, 2010 8:18am
we still swimming in the doji - hammer do not expect large moves
ブードゥー教
  • #263,988
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:20am Jun 28, 2010 8:20am
adding longs, targeting to 2425

Quoting Rocroy
waitin for 2355 to go long...
  • #263,989
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:22am Jun 28, 2010 8:22am
Quoting Rocroy
adding longs, targeting to 2425
long isn't the right direction i think...
  • #263,990
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:33am Jun 28, 2010 8:33am
Quoting PriceVolume
Not picking on you....honest....but you might want to google some wedges, and take another look at what you have there. Also, we hit the 38.2 fib last week. We are under several of Gator's levels, and thus far we're making lower highs and lower lows on the small timeframe charts. Slap some Bollinger Bands on a 5M and you will noticed that they have narrowed to less than 20 pips.....a squeeze indicating low volitility and consolidation....albeit for the time being we're grinding lower. Good luck!
Thats cool man, thanks for the info and I'll be sure to check out those wedges, I still have much to learn!
Just wondering tho, about the Fib retracement, since we hit the 38.2 fib of the previous 2 week uptrend and rebounded higher, could we still use the same 23.6 and 38.2 fib levels of the previous 2-week uptrend as support levels?
  • #263,991
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:35am Jun 28, 2010 8:35am
it is, my friend, it is. just wait and see...


Quoting dtrader9
long isn't the right direction i think...
  • #263,992
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:36am Jun 28, 2010 8:36am
Eur/Chf: I've seen this too often. This is my assumption.

"No one" knows, who's selling that much, no big news, only the common thing(Euro weak, bla) but that does not justify that drop.
Someone knows...believe me but this is not getting to the audience...not now.
If big news coming out this guy(s) buying all things back in blow off.

So->

You want to know how to trade that pair to participate ?
What i learned: Go short. Now. The chance that this will be the low is 5% i would say. If reached 100pips plus put stop-loss on break even.

I don't say it will work but the probability is definetly over 50%...

Jack

I
  • #263,993
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:43am Jun 28, 2010 8:43am
Quoting Morita
Thats cool man, thanks for the info and I'll be sure to check out those wedges, I still have much to learn!
Just wondering tho, about the Fib retracement, since we hit the 38.2 fib of the previous 2 week uptrend and rebounded higher, could we still use the same 23.6 and 38.2 fib levels of the previous 2-week uptrend as support levels?
It's certainly possible....but of more immediate concern are a few trendlines that will be evident on your charts. Last run down last week hit it to the pip, on one particular, for example. Fib levels, imho, should also be considered in the context of price action....if you see price begin to reverse off of a fib, then you have confirmation....if a fib level has confluence with a pivot, or trendline, for example....all the better.....I wouldn't play fibs without at least confluence but preferably only with price action confirmation and in the direction of the trend on a higher timeframe chart....but that's me. I'm sure others are successful with other approaches....
  • #263,994
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:45am Jun 28, 2010 8:45am

Euro's PA seems to be very weak. They try to upload longs to short it through 1.2330 to earn some bucks i think.

They want the rest to be sold from friday move 12330 to 12310 i think. Let's see if they manage next hour.
The good thing: Big boys don't earn money right now but they have to , let's see what they do, sharks are hungry

  • #263,995
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:47am Jun 28, 2010 8:47am
I'm not sure if this is about selling the euro, or buying chf *crosses*. In central and eastern europe there have been tonnes (70% for the past few years, but I have not verified this data) of loans in the swissy. A recent announcement by the hungarian government stated that they want to ban foreign currency denominated loans...so if you had one, you'd be buying the chf to limit your losses.

Just my 2 cents.

Quoting JackintheBox
Eur/Chf: I've seen this too often. This is my assumption.

"No one" knows, who's selling that much, no big news, only the common thing(Euro weak, bla) but that does not justify that drop.
Someone knows...believe me but this is not getting to the audience...not now.
If big news coming out this guy(s) buying all things back in blow off.

So->

You want to know how to trade that pair to participate ?
What i learned: Go short. Now. The chance that this will be the low is 5% i would say. If reached 100pips plus put stop-loss on break even.

I...
  • #263,996
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:48am Jun 28, 2010 8:48am
Quoting JackintheBox

Euro's PA seems to be very weak. They try to upload longs to short it through 1.2330 to earn some bucks i think.



They want the rest to be sold from friday move 12330 to 12310 i think. Let's see if they manage next hour.
The good thing: Big boys don't earn money right now but they have to , let's see what they do, sharks are hungry

Perhaps....but this wouldn't be the first NFP week that was dull until after release......not saying it happens, but it could be we're in a holding pattern...
  • #263,997
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:55am Jun 28, 2010 8:55am
do they have the courage to push it further ?
  • #263,998
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:58am Jun 28, 2010 8:58am
Quoting PriceVolume
It's certainly possible....but of more immediate concern are a few trendlines that will be evident on your charts. Last run down last week hit it to the pip, on one particular, for example....
Ahhh I see. Thanks for the answer mate, its much appreciated! =]
  • #263,999
  • Jun 28, 2010 9:04am Jun 28, 2010 9:04am
Broke the 23.6% of the last 4h low and the recent high, should be heading down now although im waiting for a 4hr close below to confirm
  • #264,000
  • Jun 28, 2010 9:04am Jun 28, 2010 9:04am
still short from 2290. sl 2250 trail 15
If only,.....
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