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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #5,801
  • Jun 24, 2010 8:28am Jun 24, 2010 8:28am
Quoting niteshift02
Hi FXChi,

Think I missed the entry for the 18.4, otherwise I think conditions are good for that template. Thanks for the heads up on the 30 min div.

Only problem is if the 18.4 plays out well, then the 30 min div will have to be visited another time.

Attachment

My own view is that price may not reach beyond the upper TL on the right, and the div may be hit today. But hey, as Igrok says, if I don't have an opinion, then I can't be wrong .

Maybe its a triangle? If lower TL gets broken, I may enter, but my spread on this pair is a nightmare

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,802
  • Jun 24, 2010 8:34am Jun 24, 2010 8:34am
Quoting niteshift02
Maybe its a triangle? If lower TL gets broken, I may enter, but my spread on this pair is a nightmare

Attachment
Any line can be drawn through space by having only 2 connection points so mostly likely market will not care. I prefer to trade breakouts on the 4th approach to the trendline and would recommend this. Of course there are exceptions but not in your case.
  • #5,803
  • Jun 24, 2010 8:59am Jun 24, 2010 8:59am
Quoting belekas
Any line can be drawn through space by having only 2 connection points so mostly likely market will not care. I prefer to trade breakouts on the 4th approach to the trendline and would recommend this. Of course there are exceptions but not in your case.
Hi Belekas,

Thanks for the analysis. Just remembered that a valid triangle must have 3 or more significant touches on one side to make it valid, so my triangle is a hopeful trick of the mind. But I do like the symmetry we seem to have at the moment, and the likelihood that div will be hit. Just need an entry point to trade this.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sym gbpchf.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #5,804
  • Jun 24, 2010 9:23pm Jun 24, 2010 9:23pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
If this does form, I'm really liking the chances of it. So far looking good to me....but I seriously have heaps to learn. lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: june 24 2010 eu reversal potential.jpg Size: 94 KB
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #5,805
  • Jun 25, 2010 2:23am Jun 25, 2010 2:23am
Quoting FxChi
If this does form, I'm really liking the chances of it. So far looking good to me....but I seriously have heaps to learn. lol
I don't think so. The trend before entering that projected formation is too short.
  • #5,806
  • Jun 25, 2010 3:45am Jun 25, 2010 3:45am
Quoting Igrok
I don't think so. The trend before entering that projected formation is too short.
Good morning Igrok,

It's a pleasure that you are here with us today. I hope the new book is going well, many of us are waiting for it in great anticipation

I have a small question which I hope you don't mind answering. Do you ever take quick guaranteed 20-50 pips trade, or pass them on in favour of bigger better trades. I ask this because some traders seem to pass on certain trade setups, even though the probabilty of a quick breakout is very high.

Thanks for your time.
  • #5,807
  • Jun 25, 2010 4:43am Jun 25, 2010 4:43am
Quoting niteshift02
Good morning Igrok,

It's a pleasure that you are here with us today. I hope the new book is going well, many of us are waiting for it in great anticipation

I have a small question which I hope you don't mind answering. Do you ever take quick guaranteed 20-50 pips trade, or pass them on in favour of bigger better trades. I ask this because some traders seem to pass on certain trade setups, even though the probabilty of a quick breakout is very high.

Thanks for your time.
have never heard about such a thing as "guaranteed profit".... the rest depends on the initial plan... usually I try to follow it....
  • #5,808
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:04am Jun 25, 2010 5:04am
Quoting Igrok
have never heard about such a thing as "guaranteed profit".... the rest depends on the initial plan... usually I try to follow it....
Yes, very true sir. What I meant was 'very high probability' rather than guaranteed. The situation I had yesterday was a potential 20.6 long on EURUSD, the main move of the day was down, but the TL was being tested, and I knew that at some point there was a very good chance it would break:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 24th jun eurusd 20.6 .gif Size: 22 KB


Price broke free and moved up around 50 pips before retracing back down to continue the downward trend. My own feeling was there was a high probability to catch some pips, even though the move was against the main trend. I didn't take the trade due to other commitments, but some traders advised against it. I think long term it would not have been good, and they're right, however, I still think there was a high probability to catch some pips simply because of the nature of the setup.

My question really is would you have taken such a setup to make a 'quick' profit, or do you believe it's not worthwhile, or too risky?

Again, thanks for your time
  • #5,809
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:34am Jun 25, 2010 5:34am
Quoting niteshift02
Yes, very true sir. What I meant was 'very high probability' rather than guaranteed. The situation I had yesterday was a potential 20.6 long on EURUSD, the main move of the day was down, but the TL was being tested, and I knew that at some point there was a very good chance it would break:
Price broke free and moved up around 50 pips before retracing back down to continue the downward trend. My own feeling was there was a high probability to catch some pips, even though the move was against the main trend. [b]I didn't take the trade due to other...
Sorry Mr. Igrok for me answering the question addressed to you. But by saying "I didn't take the trade due to other commitments, but some traders advised against it" I think fellow trader is referring to my post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3827231&postcount=316).
So a simple question to niteshift02: would you take the risk on a big live account for your "guaranteed quick profit"?
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #5,810
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:34am Jun 25, 2010 5:34am
Hello mr. Igrok,

First of all i feel lucky to see U back on a forum again, i have one short question due to correct pattern recognition, if You don't mind answer it
Can we call such a formation as it is now on USDNZD h4 charts as a duoblle top?

Thanks a lot!
  • #5,811
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:43am Jun 25, 2010 5:43am
Quoting niteshift02
Yes, very true sir. What I meant was 'very high probability' rather than guaranteed. The situation I had yesterday was a potential 20.6 long on EURUSD, the main move of the day was down, but the TL was being tested, and I knew that at some point there was a very good chance it would break:

Attachment

Price broke free and moved up around 50 pips before retracing back down to continue the downward trend. My own feeling was there was a high probability to catch some pips, even though the move was against the main trend. I didn't take...
that trendline didn't have any technical significance at all in the first place... so the break or the lack of it didn't matter as well...
  • #5,812
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:48am Jun 25, 2010 5:48am
Quoting PutaMadre
Hello mr. Igrok,

First of all i feel lucky to see U back on a forum again, i have one short question due to correct pattern recognition, if You don't mind answer it
Can we call such a formation as it is now on USDNZD h4 charts as a duoblle top?

Thanks a lot!
the short answer is "no".... the longer one would be that I'm not even sure that such a formation exists... but even if it really exists, I never trade it for the luck of any certainty since I just don't even know how to evaluate the probability for such a trade....
  • #5,813
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:56am Jun 25, 2010 5:56am
Quoting Mr.C
Sorry Mr. Igrok for me answering the question addressed to you. But by saying "I didn't take the trade due to other commitments, but some traders advised against it" I think fellow trader is referring to my post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3827231&postcount=316).
So a simple question to niteshift02: would you take the risk on a big live account for your "guaranteed quick profit"?

Hi Mr.C,

I would've definitely taken it on yesterday, but I had to leave my terminal, so couldn't trade it without monitoring it. I agree totally with everything you said yesterday, and I did say in my post to Mr.Igrok that you're right. However, your reply to my post yesterday had got me thinking more and more about the 20.6 setup and whether it can be used in a counter trend situation. Well in answer to your question, yes, I would've traded it on a live account, but only under the specific condition I'm there to monitor it and get out at quickly if the situation turns against me. Sort of scalping I guess.

As Mr.Igrok was here, I was just interested in his opinion to this particular situation. In no way was this meant as a disrespect or comment against you, I have nothing but upmost respect for you and the other experienced guys here. I just wanted an opinion from the man himself. My apologies if I have caused you any offense
  • #5,814
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:56am Jun 25, 2010 5:56am
Quoting Igrok
the short answer is "no".... the longer one would be that I'm not even sure that such a formation exists... but even if it really exists, I never trade it for the luck of any certainty since I just don't even know how to evaluate the probability for such a trade....
Thanks for your thoughts Igrok Somehow i expected such i answer, i quess the the farther we go in time the less probability of these formattions exists as to many TA traders try to follow it
  • #5,815
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:58am Jun 25, 2010 5:58am
Seems like we had a perfect 18.3 on gbp/usd. You still trade those templates Igrok ?
Measure twice, cut once
  • #5,816
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:59am Jun 25, 2010 5:59am
Quoting Igrok
that trendline didn't have any technical significance at all in the first place... so the break or the lack of it didn't matter as well...

Thanks for your answer. I will need to evaluate how my trend lines are drawn. Is there a short answer as to what makes a line technically significant?
  • #5,817
  • Jun 25, 2010 6:23am Jun 25, 2010 6:23am
Quoting niteshift02
Is there a short answer as to what makes a line technically significant?
there is one that would look like the third book
  • #5,818
  • Jun 25, 2010 6:24am Jun 25, 2010 6:24am
Quoting aediaz1
Seems like we had a perfect 18.3 on gbp/usd. You still trade those templates Igrok ?
the templates are my bread and butter...
  • #5,819
  • Jun 25, 2010 6:34am Jun 25, 2010 6:34am
Quoting Igrok
the templates are my bread and butter...
More like foccacia and foie gras

Been a long time since you showed one of your analyses. Looks like we're heading in for 18.4 on some of the majors.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #5,820
  • Jun 25, 2010 8:05am Jun 25, 2010 8:05am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Hi Igrok. Thanks for the info on the ever elusive pattern. Point taken and notes taken.

BTW, the book and thread are great. The more I reread the book, thread, and study past charts, the more things are coming together. It certainly leads me to believe that given enough experience we can create our own robust templates using some of the core concepts.

Earlier in this thread, you made a crack at the Saxo guys with their forecasts but there's definitely validity in it ( http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1853324&postcount=824) They still accurate in their inaccuracy, or are there even better "analysts" worth countertrading? I think the GBP/USD and EUR/USD thread here at FF can serve the same purpose, but it's much more efficient to check a particular report.

I'm looking forward to the new book, although I must admit, I am not in any rush to read it...I know I'm the minority in here..lol. There's still so much for me to apply/master from the first and really grasp. Hopefully by the time its ready, I'll be ready. Any new updates on the estimated publish date?
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
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