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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #7,021
  • Jun 23, 2010 12:24pm Jun 23, 2010 12:24pm
Quoting randomperson
Never watch much futbol...but holy crap that u.s. vs algeria game had me tense...
I can imagine the tense moments Good game though .... pairs are moving darn slow. I hope there is some sense of direction and new setups will pop up.
  • #7,022
  • Jun 23, 2010 12:28pm Jun 23, 2010 12:28pm
Quoting Custos
well, I slightly have to disagree. For me the green is a seperate resistance level.
I would have drawn your yellow resistance zone like that. Orange marks where price bounced off in the past.

You see how price nicely respected that area in all three occasions? That's what you want in an S/R level. Lots of occasions when price respected it (historical significance and alignment with the most recent hits)
Thanks Custos ....I just looked at the EURCHF chart and price decided not to pullback to that level. I had a sell limit order in place which i ended up cancelling.
  • #7,023
  • Jun 23, 2010 2:26pm Jun 23, 2010 2:26pm
Quoting randomperson
I'm still short from 91.08 with small scale at 90.53, and more at 89.85 if it gets there. Just note that this area is a 4hour pivot, not hourly, so wait until a clear flip occurs before getting in.
target hit and scaled out a lot. still looking for other opportunities
  • #7,024
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:33pm Jun 23, 2010 3:33pm
...there was a low intensity earthquake here in southwestern Ontario ....things were shaking like crazy especially on the upper floors ...fortunately it stopped fairly quickly.

It got me really worried. I hope there are no aftershocks.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2010/06...ttawa-reports/
  • #7,025
  • Jun 23, 2010 4:15pm Jun 23, 2010 4:15pm
Quoting randomperson
target hit and scaled out a lot. still looking for other opportunities
good job
  • #7,026
  • Jun 23, 2010 4:19pm Jun 23, 2010 4:19pm
Quoting MktScape
...there was a low intensity earthquake here in southwestern Ontario ....things were shaking like crazy especially on the upper floors ...fortunately it stopped fairly quickly.

It got me really worried. I hope there are no aftershocks.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2010/06...ttawa-reports/
yeah, when I was one time in china, there was this really huge earthquake a couple of years ago. I was in shanghai that time and that was I think 2000 km (that number could be totally off) from the earthquake origin away. I was in a skyscraper and thought, oh my god, why are the skyscrapers around me moving. Pretty scary when skyscrapers start to move, even though it was only slightly. I actually thought I just had a headache until the quake was all over the news.
  • #7,027
  • Jun 23, 2010 4:37pm Jun 23, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting Custos
yeah, when I was one time in china, there was this really huge earthquake a couple of years ago. I was in shanghai that time and that was I think 2000 km (that number could be totally off) from the earthquake origin away. I was in a skyscraper and thought, oh my god, why are the skyscrapers around me moving. Pretty scary when skyscrapers start to move, even though it was only slightly. I actually thought I just had a headache until the quake was all over the news.
Yes .... it was weired man ....i thought my head is spinning but but things around be start shaking .....i ran out. Downtown buildings were evacuated.
  • #7,028
  • Jun 24, 2010 7:54am Jun 24, 2010 7:54am
Hi Custos ,

Please advise what happened to this usdcad h1 trade ?

Cheers

Ibz


Quoting Custos
another short: usdcad h1
  • #7,029
  • Jun 24, 2010 9:26am Jun 24, 2010 9:26am
Quoting Ibz
Hi Custos ,

Please advise what happened to this usdcad h1 trade ?

Cheers

Ibz
I believe the candle with the arrow was the entry candle. It bounced off of the resistance level initially. At the next bar it found support again at the support level I marked and then broke back up through the resistance level and shot off to the upside.

How do you know when an S/R level will hold and when price just breaks through? I have no idea how to know that beforehand. If you have a method that calls breaks of S/R levels beforehand, please post. I would love to learn it.

What I do know is this, if one S/R level holds, then price will very likely go to the next one and then decide again what to do. That's why it can be important in your strategy to take profit, either full or partial and so on.
You not only wanna be good in entries but in exits too.

I personally didn't take any profit and booked a loss on that trade. Reason was, that we broke through weekly S/R level and it looked like a retest of the S/R. That suggested to me that the market wants to go down, thus the short bias. That's the thing about biases, they can be wrong very often.
Now, an indication that this might not work out is actually also on the weekly. Price is just ranging, not in a trend anymore. But at that point in time I was focused on the weekly S/R level and thought price would at least test recent weekly lows again.

How could we have avoided this loss? We could have taken profit when price retouched the support level I marked. How much profit we take depends really on the setup. I normally take either full profit or half profit and let the rest run. Anyways, just some thoughts.

And finally the statistics, to be able to make wins you gotta be willing to lose as well. As long as the winners are either bigger or more than the losers, you gonna do fine.

Does that answer your question? Since your question was very general I don't know what you wanna hear from me, any more specific questions concerning that trade?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad h1 24.6.2010.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #7,030
  • Jun 24, 2010 9:34am Jun 24, 2010 9:34am
Custos, thanks again for your input on my previous post. As you will see I was hopelessly mistaken on that one and price has just been going up and up. As for the EUR/CAD pair, what are your thoughts on it? I feel that a shorting opportunity must be near as it is rising into strong S/R levels not so?

I see it has hit through Weekly resistance 1 and is closing in on Weekly resistance 2. I would have expected a decent bounce off of those levels.

Any thoughts from your side?
  • #7,031
  • Jun 24, 2010 9:47am Jun 24, 2010 9:47am
Same with GBP/CAD. It is already above its weekly 3 resistance level. Is a drop to be expected? Is this a trend change? Your thoughts are appreciated.
  • #7,032
  • Jun 24, 2010 9:49am Jun 24, 2010 9:49am
Quoting CharlesSA
Custos, thanks again for your input on my previous post. As you will see I was hopelessly mistaken on that one and price has just been going up and up. As for the EUR/CAD pair, what are your thoughts on it? I feel that a shorting opportunity must be near as it is rising into strong S/R levels not so?

I see it has hit through Weekly resistance 1 and is closing in on Weekly resistance 2. I would have expected a decent bounce off of those levels.

Any thoughts from your side?
attached are two charts with a level range for each. the first is the daily chart, I think that could be a level. And the second is the h4 chart, that is also a good level, which price actually is just touching. Recent PA has been quite strong, so it might just blow through.

But I would just give that level a shot. It looks good, has a lot of touches. That will for sure not go unnoticed (okay, let's not say sure, but very likely). Again, it's a probability game. You gotta be willing to lose in order to win.

And please, since you have the forex tester I believe, please test out your strategies, how they would play out if you would have followed them to the letter. You know why? Cause then you become confident in taking any setups that gets in your way, because you see in the tester that it works, or even more important, you realize that your strategy is not good and you have to readjust.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad d1 24.6.2010.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad h4 24.6.2010.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #7,033
  • Jun 24, 2010 9:56am Jun 24, 2010 9:56am
Quoting CharlesSA
Same with GBP/CAD. It is already above its weekly 3 resistance level. Is a drop to be expected? Is this a trend change? Your thoughts are appreciated.
attached are gbp/cad weekly and daily.

Let's look at it with the right perspective. That strong PA in gbp/cad doesn't look so strong on the weekly. gbp/cad has been ranging around for the last couple of weeks.
Now let's go to the daily chart: price is testing or breaking through the resistance level I marked up. We don't know yet.
It can now either snap back and go back into the range, shoot for the trendline and get back down or just totally change direction. Anyways, again, when looking at the weekly chart. The trend is definitely down. Sooner or later gbp/cad should reverse back down. But here I would suggest to wait and see. Wait for the move back down and get in on lower tfs. The daily / weekly is just too long-term to trade, in my opinion. Your stoploss would have to cover a couple of hundreds of pips. Not a wise use of your money.

that answers your question?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad w1 24.6.2010.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad d1 24.6.2010.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #7,034
  • Jun 24, 2010 11:37am Jun 24, 2010 11:37am
Hi Custos ,

Thanks for your reply . I think its very important to learn how to take loses instead of profits . Great explanation .

Compare with stocks , why forex pairs don't seems to respect S/R very well ?

Thanks .

Ibz




Quoting Custos
I believe the candle with the arrow was the entry candle. It bounced off of the resistance level initially. At the next bar it found support again at the support level I marked and then broke back up through the resistance level and shot off to the upside.

How do you know when an S/R level will hold and when price just breaks through? I have no idea how to know that beforehand. If you have a method that calls breaks of S/R levels beforehand, please post. I would love to learn it.

What I do know is this, if one S/R level holds, then price will...
  • #7,035
  • Jun 24, 2010 11:45am Jun 24, 2010 11:45am
Quoting Ibz
Hi Custos ,

Thanks for your reply . I think its very important to learn how to take loses instead of profits . Great explanation .

Compare with stocks , why forex pairs don't seems to respect S/R very well ?

Thanks .

Ibz
hm, honestly, I don't have much experience in stocks, so I can't tell you how the market behaves there. But my guess is, that technicals are almost the same in any market, especially if it's about S/R levels.
Thing is, S/R levels do get respected a lot, but not all the time. They have to break eventually. That is why I am now employing this wider stop loss thing to account for these break and retest situations of S/R levels. Also don't forget, markets are not driven by S/R levels mainly, there is a ranking.
First of all the market is driven by fundamentals only secondly it is driven by technicals. Thus you will always have breaks, always. There is no 100% winning strat. Cause S/R levels have to break at one point. But it is more likely that they hold, than that they break and that is what I wanna exploit.
It's like poker. You are not gonna win each hand, but you can get good at seeing the probabilities of winning your current hand and your overall statistical edge.

cheers
  • #7,036
  • Jun 24, 2010 12:13pm Jun 24, 2010 12:13pm
Good day

how are your trades over there,I have got a horizontal line setup...please check it out.waiting for your responses
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy 4hr.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #7,037
  • Jun 24, 2010 12:23pm Jun 24, 2010 12:23pm
Hi Custos ,

Thanks . By looking at maybe 4h or 1hr forex charts , I can see lots of false break outs and its not just a small breakout but can be huge and after which it came back . This is a concern to S/R as the SL level must be placed far away .

Cheers
Ibz



Quoting Custos
hm, honestly, I don't have much experience in stocks, so I can't tell you how the market behaves there. But my guess is, that technicals are almost the same in any market, especially if it's about S/R levels.
Thing is, S/R levels do get respected a lot, but not all the time. They have to break eventually. That is why I am now employing this wider stop loss thing to account for these break and retest situations of S/R levels. Also don't forget, markets are not driven by S/R levels mainly, there is a ranking.
First of all the market is driven by fundamentals...
  • #7,038
  • Jun 24, 2010 1:33pm Jun 24, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting mayorowo
Good day

how are your trades over there,I have got a horizontal line setup...please check it out.waiting for your responses
Hi, yeah, we almost agree. I drew mine slightly different. the orange marks the touches of the S/R level range.

But anyways, yours is okay too I think. And it already responded well. Now maybe take off some of your position. Cause the momentum leading toward the level has been very high. It might just crash through with the next push.


cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy h4 24.6.2010.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #7,039
  • Jun 24, 2010 1:46pm Jun 24, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting Custos
Hi, yeah, we almost agree. I drew mine slightly different. the orange marks the touches of the S/R level range.

But anyways, yours is okay too I think. And it already responded well. Now maybe take off some of your position. Cause the momentum leading toward the level has been very high. It might just crash through with the next push.


cheers
okay, actually forgot a level, that is one huge S/R range.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy h4 24.6.2010.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #7,040
  • Jun 25, 2010 2:19am Jun 25, 2010 2:19am
just shorted eur/usd a minute ago. Attached is the eur/usd h1 chart. By the way, this is a very clean S/R level, hope you guys also see it that way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd h1 25.6.2010.gif Size: 23 KB
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