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  • #7,001
  • Jun 22, 2010 8:15am Jun 22, 2010 8:15am
Quoting mayorowo
I guess the right question we to ask you is, how did u started and what were the process in knowing the right support and resistance levels becos all your lines are always working real good....I want to be good at this too Custo.
well, read this thread, he is the master of S/R level picking:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=86429

that's how I got good in levels, after reading his material

cheers
  • #7,002
  • Jun 22, 2010 9:24am Jun 22, 2010 9:24am
another short: usdcad h1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad h1 22.6.2010.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #7,003
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:17pm Jun 22, 2010 12:17pm
This pair is showing a strong price rejection on daily chart between 50% & 61.8% Fib levels coinciding with daily and monthly TF resistance zones. On daily a bearish engulfing bar is following by a strong pin bar.

This looks like a good short candidate. Anyone else on board. ?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY-Daily.jpg Size: 104 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY-H4.jpg Size: 103 KB
  • #7,004
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:25pm Jun 22, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting MktScape
This pair is showing a strong price rejection on daily chart between 50% & 61.8% Fib levels coinciding with daily and monthly TF resistance zones. On daily a bearish engulfing bar is following by a strong pin bar.

This looks like a good short candidate. Anyone else on board. ?
very good level. Good short candidate!
  • #7,005
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:57pm Jun 22, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting Custos
very good level. Good short candidate!
Great ... my sell limit has been hit .... let see how it unfolds.
  • #7,006
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:27pm Jun 22, 2010 1:27pm
How about a potential short at the highlighted level. This has quite a strong resistance along with RN & % fib.

Custos what do you say?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY-H1.jpg Size: 96 KB
  • #7,007
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:38pm Jun 22, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting MktScape
How about a potential short at the highlighted level. This has quite a strong resistance along with RN & % fib.

Custos what do you say?
Almost, I would draw the level differently. The orange areas mark support and resistance. Your level doesn't really match recent S&R.
Historical significance is one thing, but it should also match with recent support and resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy h4 22.6.2010.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #7,008
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:45pm Jun 22, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting Custos
well, read this thread, he is the master of S/R level picking:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=86429

that's how I got good in levels, after reading his material

cheers

Thanks a million Custo....
I will digest all the threads, I will make you proud
  • #7,009
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:50pm Jun 22, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting Custos
Almost, I would draw the level differently. The orange reas mark support and resistance. Your level doesn't really match recent S&R.
Historical significance is one thing, but it should also match with recent support and resistance.
I agree ... the price reaction zone should really start from the lower spikes on H1 as the price can very well reverse from the level as you have drawn and may not go up to the level that i have marked. So i should place my sell limit at this level? ...where would you look to place at the Sl .... i am thinking at the last major swing on H1 which is near 91.500?
  • #7,010
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:56pm Jun 22, 2010 1:56pm
Quoting MktScape
I agree ... the price reaction zone should really start from the lower spikes on H1 as the price can very well reverse from the level as you have drawn and may not go up to the level that i have marked. So i should place my sell limit at this level? ...where would you look to place at the Sl .... i am thinking at the last major swing on H1 which is near 91.500?
exactly
that's also where I would place my SL. But you only need such a wide stop loss for a reverse strategy. Like, if price comes up to the level you enter short and price breaches that level and closes on the other side, then price comes back to retest the area from above, you should definitely look for a long near your entry levels.
If you don't want this reverse kind of strategy, you can tighten your stop loss, but be prepared to get stopped out more often. Again, it's a trade-off between win-loss and R:R ratio.
  • #7,011
  • Jun 22, 2010 2:33pm Jun 22, 2010 2:33pm
Quoting MktScape
How about a potential short at the highlighted level. This has quite a strong resistance along with RN & % fib.

Custos what do you say?
I'm still short from 91.08 with small scale at 90.53, and more at 89.85 if it gets there. Just note that this area is a 4hour pivot, not hourly, so wait until a clear flip occurs before getting in.
  • #7,012
  • Jun 22, 2010 2:43pm Jun 22, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting Custos
exactly
that's also where I would place my SL. But you only need such a wide stop loss for a reverse strategy. Like, if price comes up to the level you enter short and price breaches that level and closes on the other side, then price comes back to retest the area from above, you should definitely look for a long near your entry levels.
If you don't want this reverse kind of strategy, you can tighten your stop loss, but be prepared to get stopped out more often. Again, it's a trade-off between win-loss and R:R ratio.
So if price retest the level from above then short should be closed and long s/b initiated. I'll try doing that once i come across such PA.
  • #7,013
  • Jun 22, 2010 2:50pm Jun 22, 2010 2:50pm
Quoting randomperson
I'm still short from 91.08 with small scale at 90.53, and more at 89.85 if it gets there. Just note that this area is a 4hour pivot, not hourly, so wait until a clear flip occurs before getting in.
Yes ... the level that i have marked has the H4 resistance as well ..which is slightly above the start of the G1 level. When you say wait until a clear flip occurs ....does that mean you would wait for a few of bars to confirm price rejection at that level and then enter ? I'll appreciate if you can comment on your entry style ... would you enter a sell/buy limit at the defined levels or wait for the PA to confirm your analysis or wait for a breakdown from that level and enter on the retest?
  • #7,014
  • Jun 22, 2010 2:57pm Jun 22, 2010 2:57pm
Quoting MktScape
So if price retest the level from above then short should be closed and long s/b initiated. I'll try doing that once i come across such PA.
yep, except you wanna go truly trend biased, then you just close the trade at the retest from above.
  • #7,015
  • Jun 22, 2010 8:18pm Jun 22, 2010 8:18pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bud...hpbmt0aGVndWxm
  • #7,016
  • Jun 22, 2010 10:05pm Jun 22, 2010 10:05pm
Here is a potential PA resistance zone between the green (1.36990) and yellow(1.37384) lines.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,017
  • Jun 23, 2010 12:27am Jun 23, 2010 12:27am
Quoting MktScape
Here is a potential PA resistance zone between the green (1.36990) and yellow(1.37384) lines.
well, I slightly have to disagree. For me the green is a seperate resistance level.
I would have drawn your yellow resistance zone like that. Orange marks where price bounced off in the past.

You see how price nicely respected that area in all three occasions? That's what you want in an S/R level. Lots of occasions when price respected it (historical significance and alignment with the most recent hits)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf h4 23.6.2010.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #7,018
  • Jun 23, 2010 1:56am Jun 23, 2010 1:56am
Chart: EUR/CAD

The majenta line (resistence), 61.8% fib and trend line seem to confluence in the general area of 1.26717. Could this be a potential short opportunity? The main trend is down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,019
  • Jun 23, 2010 2:24am Jun 23, 2010 2:24am
Quoting CharlesSA
Chart: EUR/CAD

The majenta line (resistence), 61.8% fib and trend line seem to confluence in the general area of 1.26717. Could this be a potential short opportunity? The main trend is down.
hm, it's not an A+ setup, but nonetheless could be an opportunity.

Some points to be discussed with that setup:

 

  1. look at my arrows, eur/cad made higher lows recently, showing at least a pause in the trend. Right now we are in ranging mode.
  2. Then look at my blue lines, there you can see better that we are just ranging
  3. The S/R level you identified is okay, but it's not the cleanest. Look at the posts: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6997 and http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7002 those are much cleaner S/R levels, these are the types you wanna find.
  4. Also in my opinion fibs are only to be drawn in a new swing down or a new swing up. The swing you have drawn it from is maybe not ideal, cause it didn't make new lows.
  5. Now to your trendline, haha. Don't just draw a trendline from any high to any high to make it "fit". The trendline should make sense. It either should show boundaries of consolidations or connect swing high with swing high and swing low with swing low. Yours just connect a random high with the most recent high. Doesn't really make sense. You have to think like that: would other people in the world also see my trendline? would they draw it the same way? if the answer is no, then delete it. A trendline has to be clear for everybody in the world.

But anyways, it's an okay opportunity, trend is really down. So even I write you a lot of points here, I think you should trade it in a demo account. So you can see yourself if it was really a valid opportunity. Cause maybe I am totally wrong and you found a new profitable way to trade. You gotta test that out. First hand experience is always the best.

cheers

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad h4 23.6.2010.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #7,020
  • Jun 23, 2010 11:18am Jun 23, 2010 11:18am
FOMC later today, hence the slowness on a lot of pairs/index's. Usually find price pushes to the nearest pivot before the release.

Never watch much futbol...but holy crap that u.s. vs algeria game had me tense...
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