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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #6,981
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:16am Jun 21, 2010 2:16am
Quoting Custos
wow, if you can identify a weekly resistance with a 3 pips range, then you gonna be soon really rich.
Haha... you are totally right. This weekend I have been experimenting drawing weekly S/R levels and then I used a Pivot indicator to see how it identified the areas and it was very close to what I had... very close. The previous range I gave was just a rough figure based on the Weekly pivot points... I know price can shoot over it by a large number of pips before the bounce actually takes place This morning I watched how price reacts to the pivots points (daily lines) and it is amazing to see how it more often than not will bounce even if it is only 20 - 40 pips.

Do you ever use a pivot indicator to "quickly" identify potential S/R areas?
  • #6,982
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:34am Jun 21, 2010 2:34am
Quoting CharlesSA
Haha... you are totally right. This weekend I have been experimenting drawing weekly S/R levels and then I used a Pivot indicator to see how it identified the areas and it was very close to what I had... very close. The previous range I gave was just a rough figure based on the Weekly pivot points... I know price can shoot over it by a large number of pips before the bounce actually takes place This morning I watched how price reacts to the pivots points (daily lines) and it is amazing to see how it more often than not will bounce even if it is...
hm, I have a little bit mixed feelings about daily pivots. Because again we have a time-zone issue. pivots are calculated at the close of the daily bar. So do we take the close of the daily bar of london traders, frankfurt trader, ny traders or tokyo traders?
Normally they are pretty good, but because of that time-zone issue not all traders might use the same pivots. But if I were to use them, I would set them to gmt. But yes, price can react quite well to pivots. Maybe you can take them as a guide to lead you to the most significant horizontal S/R levels, of which price might bounce off more accurately.
Not sure what you mean with quickly but after a while you can see S/R levels anyway really quickly.
  • #6,983
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:34am Jun 21, 2010 6:34am
I came across this setup ...i think its a nice confluence RN 91.40 with the trend line..Please check this out

what are your opinion
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 4hr.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #6,984
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:57am Jun 21, 2010 6:57am
Quoting mayorowo
I came across this setup ...i think its a nice confluence RN 91.40 with the trend line..Please check this out

what are your opinion
hm, I think you got the concept of round numbers a little wrong. in such high tfs, RNs are 50 pips apart. like 91, 91.5, 92, 92.5. If you go even higher, then they are maybe 500 pips apart.
If you take every 10 pips as an RN in those tfs then you always gonna find an RN as a confluence factor, no matter what.

Anyways, to the setup now:
Pros:

 

  1. confluence of trendline + fibs + RN is somewhere close (91.5)

Cons:

 

  1. no real horizontal level (that is a basic requirement normally, however doesn't need to be there all the time)
  2. PA is way too fast. Look at the impulse wave, that one took longer than the retrace, very likely to just blow through that trendline later.
  3. daily is ranging around, not a good established trend, so I think we are more in consolidation mode here than trending mode

It is always important to grasp when we are trending and when we are ranging, as far as I am concerned, usd/jpy is just ranging in the moment, thus trending setups won't be that good

Of course as usual, this might work out, I just say probabilitiy-wise it might just blow through your trendline for the above reasons.

cheers

  • #6,985
  • Jun 21, 2010 7:03am Jun 21, 2010 7:03am
Quoting Custos
hm, I think you got the concept of round numbers a little wrong. in such high tfs, RNs are 50 pips apart. like 91, 91.5, 92, 92.5. If you go even higher, then they are maybe 500 pips apart.
If you take every 10 pips as an RN in those tfs then you always gonna find an RN as a confluence factor, no matter what.

Anyways, to the setup now:
Pros:

 

  1. confluence of trendline + fibs + RN is somewhere close (91.5)

Cons:
[list][*]no real horizontal level (that is a basic requirement normally, however doesn't need to be there all the...


Thanks Custo,

I am geting it better and better
  • #6,986
  • Jun 21, 2010 7:12am Jun 21, 2010 7:12am
Quoting mayorowo
Thanks Custo,

I am geting it better and better
better you focus more on pairs that already trend, like most aud pairs (aud/jpy, aud/usd, aud/cad) all trending up on h1. And the euro pairs, most trending down eur/aud, eur/cad, eur/chf, eur/gbp all trending down on daily to h1.

First you wanna find clear trends, then you look for a setup.

Hope that helps

p.s. don't try to pick tops and bottoms. Best is to find setups in clear trends that are already on the way... (that's for trending setpus)
  • #6,987
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:25pm Jun 21, 2010 12:25pm
This setup has 2 confluence factor the S/R (yellow line) is from daily TF and the 50% Fib. I got a bit late in placing the order now waiting for a potential spike to get me in.

Anyone else on board this one?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,988
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:31pm Jun 21, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting MktScape
This setup has 2 confluence factor the S/R (yellow line) is from daily TF and the 50% Fib. I got a bit late in placing the order now waiting for a potential spike to get me in.

Anyone else on board this one?
awesome setup. you got some really good chart-reading skills now. I attached the weekly. The same resistance you see on your h1 chart is actually also visible on the weekly. That one is very high probability in my eyes. Don't bet all your money though
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad w1 21.6.2010.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #6,989
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:36pm Jun 21, 2010 12:36pm
Nice R level, mktscape.

slow day for the pairs I'm watching (and index's). summer has officially hit i think.

/wishes the market would let me know in advance, given it's so nice out here...
  • #6,990
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:00pm Jun 21, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting Custos
awesome setup. you got some really good chart-reading skills now. I attached the weekly. The same resistance you see on your h1 chart is actually also visible on the weekly. That one is very high probability in my eyes. Don't bet all your money though
Thanks for your positive affirmations and support .... i am feeling more confident in reading charts and finding levels with good confluence levels. This one was a quick in and out type of trade as price did reacted for about 25 pips and decided to move up. I couldnt place an order well in advance however .... good to know that my screen time is starting to pay off slowly but surely.

This weekend i spent a lot of time in reading the book and worked on getting a handle on a shorter time frame strategy 15M & H1. I think its important to have a couple of strategies handy. I havent finished with the book yet ...but i must say that a lot of things that the author has mentioned in trader development resonates with the work i have done so far.

Thumbs up for referring that book .... as it served as yet another positive feedback for me.
  • #6,991
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:03pm Jun 21, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting randomperson
Nice R level, mktscape.

slow day for the pairs I'm watching (and index's). summer has officially hit i think.

/wishes the market would let me know in advance, given it's so nice out here...
Yes thats what i was feeling too .... PA appear slow. Also thanks for your feedback ...much appreciated. This week i am pretty much at home thanks to G20 in toronto. However i would spend more time in reading, and appling the trading skills learned sofar.

Ciao
  • #6,992
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:13pm Jun 21, 2010 1:13pm
Quoting MktScape
Thanks for your positive affirmations and support .... i am feeling more confident in reading charts and finding levels with good confluence levels. This one was a quick in and out type of trade as price did reacted for about 25 pips and decided to move up.
hm, I think usd/cad is not over yet. Give it some room. That one could still go short.

Quoting MktScape
This weekend i spent a lot of time in reading the book and worked on getting a handle on a shorter time frame strategy 15M & H1. I think its important to have a couple of strategies handy. I havent finished with the book yet ...but i must say that a lot of things that the author has mentioned in trader development resonates with the work i have done so far.

Thumbs up for referring that book .... as it served as yet another positive feedback for me.
good that it helps you
  • #6,993
  • Jun 21, 2010 4:20pm Jun 21, 2010 4:20pm
This one is hitting the bottom on range at an H4 support level. Custos ...does this warrants a limit buy order or would you wait for a retest of previous resistance? For your range trading setups do you always wait for a breakout and retest?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY-Range REversal.jpg Size: 103 KB
  • #6,994
  • Jun 21, 2010 4:33pm Jun 21, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting MktScape
This one is hitting the bottom on range at an H4 support level. Custos ...does this warrants a limit buy order or would you wait for a retest of previous resistance? For your range trading setups do you always wait for a breakout and retest?
Not sure what you mean. If you mean buying right now, then no. I would buy at 134 support level.

And what do you mean with retest of previous resistance? I thought we talk about a buy here. I only would buy at support, not at resistance.

And no, I don't wait for breakouts and retests, I buy at support and sell at resistance.

cheers
  • #6,995
  • Jun 21, 2010 4:59pm Jun 21, 2010 4:59pm
Quoting Custos
Not sure what you mean. If you mean buying right now, then no. I would buy at 134 support level.

And what do you mean with retest of previous resistance? I thought we talk about a buy here. I only would buy at support, not at resistance.

And no, I don't wait for breakouts and retests, I buy at support and sell at resistance.

cheers
I would rephrase the question ... If i dont have a buy limit order in place at 134 support level then i can still get into the trade using a lower TF via buy limit order ...correct?

w.r.t previous resistance .... i meant that the if the yellow TL (which will become previous resistance) is retested from above (future potential support). However if you would buy/sell at support and wont wait for a retest then this wont be applicable.

What SL strategy you are using on range trading .... are you using tight SL, or fixed pips ? In our trend trading setups I would preferably go with the nearest swing high as my potential SL point however when range trading there arnt any swing highs/lows nearby therefore in that case how should the SL be placed?
  • #6,996
  • Edited 2:51am Jun 22, 2010 1:34am | Edited 2:51am
Quoting MktScape
I would rephrase the question ... If i dont have a buy limit order in place at 134 support level then i can still get into the trade using a lower TF via buy limit order ...correct?
okay, I am still not sure if I understand. But yes you can always lower your time-frame and find lower tf support levels. But the lower you go, the less your profit target will be, since you also have a lot of other lower tf S/R levels above. So, In this case going lower to get in won't help you that much, since your profit target will be much lower as well.

Quoting MktScape
w.r.t previous resistance .... i meant that the if the yellow TL (which will become previous resistance) is retested from above (future potential support). However if you would buy/sell at support wont wait for a retest then this wont be applicable.
well, if you wanna go long at the yellow line, yes then you have to wait for a break and then retest to enter long.

Quoting MktScape
What SL strategy you are using on range trading .... are you using tight SL, or fixed pips ? In our trend trading setups I would preferably go with the nearest swing high as my potential SL point however when range trading there arnt any swing highs/lows nearby therefore in that case how should the SL be placed?
as mentioned in my previous posts, I put them behind the next S/R level.
  • #6,997
  • Jun 22, 2010 2:48am Jun 22, 2010 2:48am
went short on eur/jpy at the retest of the orange marked resistance level. Let's see how it works out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy h1 22.6.2010.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #6,998
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:16am Jun 22, 2010 4:16am
Quoting Custos
went short on eur/jpy at the retest of the orange marked resistance level. Let's see how it works out.
Excellent call Custos. I admire your accuracy and ability in spotting these setups. This move is already 60 pips in your favour and momentum is still strong. Well done.
  • #6,999
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:52am Jun 22, 2010 4:52am
Quoting CharlesSA
Excellent call Custos. I admire your accuracy and ability in spotting these setups. This move is already 60 pips in your favour and momentum is still strong. Well done.
haha thanks. It's just a probability game. I believe if you gonna stick to it and get more screentime, then you gonna be able to spot those setups in no time. Then you can tell me how to trade.
  • #7,000
  • Jun 22, 2010 7:54am Jun 22, 2010 7:54am
Quoting Custos
haha thanks. It's just a probability game. I believe if you gonna stick to it and get more screentime, then you gonna be able to spot those setups in no time. Then you can tell me how to trade.

I guess the right question we to ask you is, how did u started and what were the process in knowing the right support and resistance levels becos all your lines are always working real good....I want to be good at this too Custo.
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