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  • #260,381
  • Jun 20, 2010 10:20am Jun 20, 2010 10:20am
I am going to be short on Euro in my medium term trading for the whole of next week, sell on all highs. Seems to have gained too much, but without much reason. However I will keep an eye on FOMC news.

Any advice guys?
  • #260,382
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:12am Jun 20, 2010 11:12am
Quoting PipMaxzz
I am going to be short on Euro in my medium term trading for the whole of next week, sell on all highs. Seems to have gained too much, but without much reason. However I will keep an eye on FOMC news.

Any advice guys?
don't fight the trend, and the short term trend is definitely up

I also would be a seller on strenght, but would rather sell at 1.26 - 27 than at 1.23....
  • #260,383
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:19am Jun 20, 2010 11:19am
Quoting TheWalrus
You're comparing 1920's Germany, who was absolutely devastated after world war AND living through a global depression of unprecedented scale, to a global superpower with financial resources and power up the ass?

Interesting
Interestingly enough the strengths you list can also be considered weaknesses.
Take for example financial resources. What are financial resources? They are just condensed public confidence. A belief that you can back them up with something substantial, and that you are generally a reliable entity. You can be the judge how the current crisis has influenced the financial trust in the US.
There was and still is unfortunately a great imbalance in the proportions of the financial sector compared to the rest of the US, and actually the western economy in general. The other parts of the economy have become addicted to the easy profits and investments provided by financial institutions. You so often criticize other parts of the world for social welfare, yet you fail to see that your own economy and even worse, your private sector has become addicted to welfare financial schemes provided by the "top institutions". Unfortunately as any other unsustainable business models, this one also experienced a crash, and as a result the global economy is in the process of a painful withdrawal and rebalancing. There is one thing about the US, which is still top notch and there's no arguing - military hardware. But the enemy I believe is internal for the US, so it's not helping much.


Now to make myself perfectly clear, I'm pro US, and I'm greatly sorry about what happened to your country. Any country could have fallen victim to the same imbalances. Also I'm a die hard free market supporter and capitalist. And I think the current crisis only shows the unbiased justice of the market, which punishes unsustainable models and restores balance eventually. If anything I think overregulation, populist political interventions and other games greatly enhanced this crisis, by allowing this bubble to exist and build up for way longer than it would have survived in a market free of such manipulation.


One tragic figure who takes all the blame is president Obama. It's so pathetic it's actually getting a bit funny, got a problem? Blame Obama. It's as if he personally created the crisis and now he can wave his magic wand and remove it. But in reality the guy just can't do anything in this hopeless situation. The best we all can do is be patient for an year or two, let the fallen fail ,as painful as it is, and see what leads the next growth cycle come 2013.
  • #260,384
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:21am Jun 20, 2010 11:21am
Quoting fammira
don't fight the trend, and the short term trend is definitely up

I also would be a seller on strenght, but would rather sell at 1.26 - 27 than at 1.23....
Yes. I was a seller at 2403 caught some pips, hedged back up to where we are and waiting for a better entry to short again. Until then I have small positions long looking for an extension of the last move if not right up to the 50 daily ma (2580-2650ish.)
  • #260,385
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:28am Jun 20, 2010 11:28am
Quoting Masrim
Interestingly enough the strengths you list can also be considered weaknesses.
Take for example financial resources. What are financial resources? They are just condensed public confidence. A belief that you can back them up with something substantial, and that you are generally a reliable entity. You can be the judge how the current crisis has influenced the financial trust in the US.
There was and still is unfortunately a great imbalance in the proportions of the financial sector compared to the rest of the US, and actually the western economy...

Yes, but we complain because he cant see that what he is trying to do is further hindering growth and the strength of our dollar. There is no such thing as too big to fail. He should have let the banks fail. Let the car companies fail. The banks just hold financial instruments that other banks would have bought at a discount. The car companies could have gotten rid of the unions and some of their stupid decision debt. Then everything would have come out stronger. Instead you have huge monopolizing banks and bloated car companies that will fail at the drop of a hat as soon as even the breeze of a recession peaks its head. So no he should not get blame for what happened but how he handled it.
  • #260,386
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:35am Jun 20, 2010 11:35am
Quoting klinckphilip
Yes, but we complain because he cant see that what he is trying to do is further hindering growth and the strength of our dollar. There is no such thing as too big to fail. He should have let the banks fail. Let the car companies fail. The banks just hold financial instruments that other banks would have bought at a discount. The car companies could have gotten rid of the unions and some of their stupid decision debt. Then everything would have come out stronger. Instead you have huge monopolizing banks and bloated car companies that will fail at...
Yeah, I tend to agree, only I think the main responsibility for this lies with mr Bernanke and mr Geithner. Still, you are right, Obama, or maybe his team, isn't innocent, I was just pointing out he's taking too much blame in his ratings lately. I agree with you thought.
  • #260,387
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:36am Jun 20, 2010 11:36am
Quoting Masrim
One tragic figure who takes all the blame is president Obama.
Politicians love taking credit where it's not due, so it's only fair they cop much of the blame.
  • #260,388
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:42am Jun 20, 2010 11:42am
In my humble opinion I think all currencies are screwd,

Which one is screwed least?
  • #260,389
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:54am Jun 20, 2010 11:54am
Hound, why do you think it?
  • #260,390
  • Jun 20, 2010 12:03pm Jun 20, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting Masrim
Yeah, I tend to agree, only I think the main responsibility for this lies with mr Bernanke and mr Geithner. Still, you are right, Obama, or maybe his team, isn't innocent, I was just pointing out he's taking too much blame in his ratings lately. I agree with you thought.
True. But, we depend on the "smart people" too much. If a strong fiscal conservative where the president he may call these people down. He could with his bully pulpit make them do what he wants.
  • #260,391
  • Jun 20, 2010 12:04pm Jun 20, 2010 12:04pm
My broker only shows the close price. Does anyone have the current price? Has it moved? Are we looking at a gap?
  • #260,392
  • Edited 1:13pm Jun 20, 2010 12:18pm | Edited 1:13pm
There are fundamental considerations to take into account as well. I believe we're seeing not simply a correction that will return to the downside move for Euro, but the seeds of a months-long reversal with a falling USD.

The data from the past ten days include numbers that have not been seen in months... examples:

US CPI recently took its biggest drop since December 2008.

Housing starts took their biggest drop since March 2009.

US is seeing very low inflationary pressures coupled with very slow employment gains; last week's unemployment figures unexpectedly worsened. Last month's employment included only 41,000 new jobs in the private sector, all other gains coming from hiring by the Census Bureau.

US retail sales had their first decline in 8 months.

USD Index, which has moved only higher all year (from 76.6 in January) reached a high of 88.7 on June 6th but since has dropped to 85.7. Only twice has the USDX been higher than 88.7: in March of '09 when it hit (but did not close for the month) 89.5. After that level, it fell to as low as 74 in November of '09. The rate has tagged trend lines on the monthly USDX charts.

The Euro just closed its best week since September and is a full five cents above the lows of 1.1875 around June 6th.

Also, Jim Rogers (who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1970) said this week: "It's time to go in and take the other side. It's (the Euro) gotten beat down so much." Rogers said he's buying Euros. When larger, institutional, and established traders with a history of "smart money" become contrarian, there's cause to reconsider positions.

Ashraf Laidi (who is on vacation in South Africa for the World Cup) a couple weeks ago wrote: "expect Euro to hit 1.1630-50 by June 16th." Instead, the Euro tagged 1.24. Ashraf was wrong by nearly eight cents!

There's also a change in global sentiment, with sentences like these in various articles: "as concern eased that Europe's debt crisis would worsen" and "on prospects for greater stability in Europe" and "Europe's banks are robust."

This coming week the FOMC will keep rates unchanged at 1/4 point and will almost certainly keep the language in the statement that rates will stay this low "for an extended period."

GOLD has hit new record levels, with the established inverse correlation between the yellow metal and the USD.

There are still people who are saying that the Euro and the dollar will reach parity. Goldman Sachs a couple of weeks ago revised its predictions for the year and said it expects the Euro to reach 1.15. (in January I made note of expert's predictions for the year ahead. The median forecast from 43 economists was for the Euro to hit 1.51 by the end of March and 1.49 by June. "Expert" does not always equal "always correct.")

In the competition for the least-ugly currency -- to find robust economies look to places like Norway and Brazil -- the Euro is looking less ugly and the dollar is looking more ugly.

Granted: much of the news from the Eurozone these past couple weeks can be summed as an absence of bad news, instead of a presence of good news. But these fundamentals may signal a stability that will allow a four-month Euro rise.

Right now, I cannot take the "Euro bearish - Dollar bullish" positions comfortably. At best, I'm neutral. But the smart money is the first money. Smart money leads the pack and then profits when the pack comes on board. I believe that what we're seeing in Euro may not simply be a correction to precede the return to a lower Euro. Euro is at extremely low prices, which I believe are a bargain at these levels.
  • #260,393
  • Jun 20, 2010 12:33pm Jun 20, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting klinckphilip
My broker only shows the close price. Does anyone have the current price? Has it moved? Are we looking at a gap?
http://www.ukforex.co.uk/cgi-bin/int...spot-rates.asp

This one is pretty good.
  • #260,394
  • Jun 20, 2010 12:49pm Jun 20, 2010 12:49pm
hello all, here 1.2450, is the point ,last hard support which is hard resistance .
trend is down but if we consider fibo lines as a marker for retracement there
r more rooms to go up 1.2550,1.26,1.27,1.3 but it needs to break this point
to show a plan for touching fibo lines.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #260,395
  • Jun 20, 2010 12:58pm Jun 20, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting Masrim
Yeah, I tend to agree, only I think the main responsibility for this lies with mr Bernanke and mr Geithner. Still, you are right, Obama, or maybe his team, isn't innocent, I was just pointing out he's taking too much blame in his ratings lately. I agree with you thought.
the guy is a millionaire..i'm sure he's fine. ratings, he don't care lol...if this situation is "hopeless", he came into the job unprepared. i saw a lot of "hope" bumper stickers and still do..all three of the guys you listed are in the exact same club. Geithner is a little easier to kick out is all

by the way, the initial estimate for the oil spill barrels leaking out of the horizon accident..was 500 barrels or so..??!!?!?!!?

Government,BP, whoever! Get you phucking facts straight! Don't even give an estimate, I mean how in the phuck could they be that far off?

It's sitting over the gulf, the know the amount of oil the that is "supposed" to be in the hole. Of course it's huge..they're all liars. seriously

the estimate now is up to about 50,000 barrels(35-60 depending on who you talk to)..

I just heard the "energy secretary" or whatever she is (like we need a special multi million dollar department when they..nevermind) say in an interview with Judy Woodruff on Bloomberg that the relief well is the only guarantee that we have that will stop this leak! (this interview is from the last couple of days)
another freaking lie! that relief well doesn't guarantee shit, that's why they're drilling 1 more simultaneously because neither is guaranteed anything..
these people will lie to us constantly and without fail ever single time to save face for even a week. they are all elected officials and by far and large POLITICIANS!

on another note:http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-49468620100620
  • #260,396
  • Jun 20, 2010 1:11pm Jun 20, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting klinckphilip
My broker only shows the close price. Does anyone have the current price? Has it moved? Are we looking at a gap?
It hasn't move yet, how should it? It will start to move in about 50 minutes.

Look here: http://mmm.saxobank.com/CrossesView.aspx?Cross=Majors
  • #260,397
  • Jun 20, 2010 1:19pm Jun 20, 2010 1:19pm
Quoting Xaron
It hasn't move yet, how should it? It will start to move in about 50 minutes.

Look here: http://mmm.saxobank.com/CrossesView.aspx?Cross=Majors
My broker closed it at 78 but this quote has it at 92. Is that a move or is that just the difference in brokers.
  • #260,398
  • Jun 20, 2010 1:21pm Jun 20, 2010 1:21pm
Quoting klinckphilip
My broker closed it at 78 but this quote has it at 92. Is that a move or is that just the difference in brokers.
If your broker closed at 78 he just closed too early. The saxo close is the real one, same is true for the opening. You will see that there are no gaps. Gaps in the Forex market are a common myth.
  • #260,399
  • Edited 2:14pm Jun 20, 2010 1:21pm | Edited 2:14pm
Quoting klinckphilip
Yes, but we complain because he cant see that what he is trying to do is further hindering growth and the strength of our dollar. There is no such thing as too big to fail. He should have let the banks fail. Let the car companies fail. The banks just hold financial instruments that other banks would have bought at a discount. The car companies could have gotten rid of the unions and some of their stupid decision debt. Then everything would have come out stronger. Instead you have huge monopolizing banks and bloated car companies that will fail at...
i don't know if you realized this, but Bush bailed out the banks before obama took office. It happened in early November. As for letting the car companies fail, you must not really understand just how many jobs the auto industry creates. Including jobs that are indirectly connected, such as factories that create lights, door panels, paint, etc. A lot more jobs than the banking industry. Further If you head to Florida, and see how workers are treated without unions, and head to the north were the unions help secure much better wages, and not third world illegal alien wages, you would change your opinion of that statement.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #260,400
  • Edited 2:14pm Jun 20, 2010 1:24pm | Edited 2:14pm
Quoting uraceulose
the guy is a millionaire..i'm sure he's fine. ratings, he don't care lol...if this situation is "hopeless", he came into the job unprepared. i saw a lot of "hope" bumper stickers and still do..all three of the guys you listed are in the exact same club. Geithner is a little easier to kick out is all

by the way, the initial estimate for the oil spill barrels leaking out of the horizon accident..was 500 barrels or so..??!!?!?!!?

Government,BP, whoever! Get you phucking facts straight! Don't even give an estimate, I mean how in the phuck could...
All politicians lie, but lets not forget, the wmd's in Iraq has cost us more money, and lives than any other lie!
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
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