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  • #260,341
  • Jun 19, 2010 5:41pm Jun 19, 2010 5:41pm
Wow, look at this chart from TimingCharts.com.
Large investors are definitely buying more euros, even if they are still buying dollars.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: getchart.php.png Size: 36 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: getchartpng.png Size: 41 KB
  • #260,342
  • Jun 19, 2010 6:09pm Jun 19, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting mfoste1
I don't put the though out that we could push a little bit higher towards the larger shorts. I'm sure that last weeks covering rally shook out a lot of the weak shorts. With that being said, bulls might still try to cover a few more shorts.....I also wouldn't discount the fact that with volumes decreasing due to illiquid holiday (July 4) and summer trading conditions coming into effect, we could see a bunch of consolidation up here in the range from 1.2150-1.2645 until mid-July to August. Here's my chart.....

That says it all.. I am with ya
Follow the Trend, thats all
  • #260,343
  • Jun 19, 2010 6:15pm Jun 19, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting goods
Ok here is a chart of my overall sentiment, long term bear, short term retracement small bull for how long??? Dont know but hopefully we will see correction in the short future. I am pending to buy at 1.2350 after watching the gap on sunday. I have posted my reasoning on the charts. Please I offer your opinion on my output here.

Thank you.
Yeah but dont go short if the TL breaks, its 50:50
Follow the Trend, thats all
  • #260,344
  • Jun 19, 2010 6:20pm Jun 19, 2010 6:20pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu5day.PNG Size: 45 KB


Price has been stopped in it's tracks when neared 1.24 level. Not sure what the gap will look like tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if a trend change (short) is due.
  • #260,345
  • Jun 19, 2010 7:09pm Jun 19, 2010 7:09pm
COT Weekly Data Discloses Biggest Euro Short Covering Episode In History

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/18/2010 15:30 -0500


The CFTC Commitment of Traders is out and, it's a doozy: the amount of short covering in net spec EUR short positions hits what is certainly an all time record, as just under 50 thousand (49,585) short contracts are covered. This represents a huge 44% of all outstanding EUR net shorts (-111,945) as of the prior week. No wonder the EUR surged, and no wonder Goldman downgraded the EURUSD - in tried and true fashion we wonder how many banks tightened up margin requirements only to force the biggest short squeeze in history. It is only logical that every sellside desk would try to sucker as many clients as they could in advance of this rampage. The current net spec short position takes total shorts back to levels from mid-April, when the euro was trading in the 1.30 range. This is very bad news for existing EUR longs as it is now guaranteed that all weak hands have certainly been shaken out. Any additional move higher will actually have to occur for truly fundamental reasons. Alas, those will not be coming any time soon.

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

  • #260,346
  • Jun 19, 2010 8:23pm Jun 19, 2010 8:23pm
How does China's decision to free up the yuan ( to some extent) affect the EUR? Will this be the boot the EUR needs? Will the Shorts go running for the door?
  • #260,347
  • Jun 19, 2010 9:05pm Jun 19, 2010 9:05pm
Quoting Prosac_100Mg
I am really pleased with them. no problems okay the spreads increase during news time but that about the only problem .
I USE OANDA and I am very pleased
  • #260,348
  • Jun 19, 2010 9:18pm Jun 19, 2010 9:18pm
Quoting siewhf
COT Weekly Data Discloses Biggest Euro Short Covering Episode In History

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/18/2010 15:30 -0500


The CFTC Commitment of Traders is out and, it's a doozy: the amount of short covering in net spec EUR short positions hits what is certainly an all time record, as just under 50 thousand (49,585) short contracts are covered. This represents a huge 44% of all outstanding EUR net shorts (-111,945) as of the prior week. [color=red]No...
This makes sense, actually. I was expecting a big retracement in the EUR. The only way the Euro can move substantially higher is for investors to see a reason to go long, rather than investors simply closing their existing shorts. The Euro MAY rise a bit more, but I'm definitely expecting a big downwards movement any day now.
  • #260,349
  • Jun 19, 2010 9:24pm Jun 19, 2010 9:24pm
Quoting klinckphilip
How many of you watch every pair to see what is in the action at the moment? Do you trade every pair?
Do you have some favorites?
If you do trade lots of currencies, how do you find the ones that are moving? And how do you find them before the move is over?
I watch about 6 pairs. I trade solely on price action while keeping short term trends in the back of my mind. I'm a scalper. Sometimes if I short Eur in one pair, I short it with another as well (i.e. EUR/USD, EUR/JPY) but it depends on the situation. The type of trading I do doesn't rely on anything but price action. I drop my position summary into an excel file I made every week and I am at 71% positive with my trades, and many of the negatives are netted with a positive when I double dip. The one problem I have is knowing when to exit a loser, and letting a winner ride a bit longer. I'm a scalper, so that's the toughest decision to make.
  • #260,350
  • Jun 19, 2010 9:51pm Jun 19, 2010 9:51pm
Quoting okh
Wow, look at this chart from TimingCharts.com.
Large investors are definitely buying more euros, even if they are still buying dollars.
Attachment

Attachment

I am deciding between two things here. Either there is a ginormous short squeeze going on, which is temporary, OR... large investors are betting that we are at or NEAR the bottom... and are throwing money into the euro so they don't miss the upswing. I'm betting on the Euro going down to at least 1.15 just because the recession in Europe is a lot different. Spain worries me the most, and austerity measures across Portugal, Ireland, UK, and now Germany will keep the economy weak there. Then there is Hungary, outside the Euro (as is the UK) but something that will affect the currency in a negative way...
  • #260,351
  • Jun 19, 2010 10:25pm Jun 19, 2010 10:25pm
Quoting ppxdf
I USE OANDA and I am very pleased
I use Oanda also and have been happy with them for the most part. Every now and then the platform goes down for a few minutes but this doesn't happen very often. Spreads are also very low most of the time. Their charting kind of sucks, but you can use other software for charting. For order entry they are though to beat.
  • #260,352
  • Jun 19, 2010 10:26pm Jun 19, 2010 10:26pm
How does the CHINA's statement affect risk appetite this week? I think this will gap up and start to decline as new shorts come in.
  • #260,353
  • Jun 19, 2010 11:30pm Jun 19, 2010 11:30pm
Quoting Awesome
I use Oanda also and have been happy with them for the most part. Every now and then the platform goes down for a few minutes but this doesn't happen very often. Spreads are also very low most of the time. Their charting kind of sucks, but you can use other software for charting. For order entry they are though to beat.
FXOpen rarely goes down.
  • #260,354
  • Jun 19, 2010 11:56pm Jun 19, 2010 11:56pm
Still the momentum is up now, we might see a stabilization this week before a new pop up. . Euro/USD is bullish, US Dollar is struggling hard. There is no good news in the US. The only thing coming is printing money and printing money. This is not sustainable and far worse than the situation in Europe. Watch your back when the USD$ loses 5%,10% and + intraday. It will happen one day before you get your eyes opened.

For those who owns a lot of USD and even other currencies, buy gold and silver to protect yourself !
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #260,355
  • Jun 20, 2010 12:14am Jun 20, 2010 12:14am
Quoting FxEpic
How does China's decision to free up the yuan ( to some extent) affect the EUR? Will this be the boot the EUR needs? Will the Shorts go running for the door?
This is bad news for the USD. China is becoming less dependent on others countries. The domestic demand is skyrocketing, with 1 billion + people, they can consume what they produce. So they don't rely on their exportations to United States and other countries. As China is becoming stronger, they won't prop up anymore USA by buying theirs Treasuries. Eventually, nobody will want to lend their money to the US Government. Fannie et Freddie Mac = 8 trillions, Federal debt = 13 trillions and +, Unfunded liabilities (Medicare, Medicaid...) = 50 trillions

70 trillions and growing everyday ! Printing presses going to run at full capacity.

Even if the Euro is not a sound currency, people will realize that it is still better than the USD for the moment. So, people will diversify out of the Dollar.

A lot of money is going into the Asian Markets and currencies. That'S where the growth is.

Just my 2 cents.
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #260,356
  • Jun 20, 2010 12:36am Jun 20, 2010 12:36am
Quoting Bootleger
Still the momentum is up now, we might see a stabilization this week before a new pop up. . Euro/USD is bullish, US Dollar is struggling hard. There is no good news in the US. The only thing coming is printing money and printing money. This is not sustainable and far worse than the situation in Europe. Watch your back when the USD$ loses 5%,10% and + intraday. It will happen one day before you get your eyes opened.

For those who owns a lot of USD and even other currencies, buy gold and silver to protect yourself !
Is it better in Europe? Countries that are so far in debt have to borrow money and go FURTHER into debt just to make ends meet? Doesn't make cents. Or sense.

The fact still remains that the US economy is strong and the US govt able to print money while Europe is stagnant and having to borrow money like third world nations. European nations CANNOT print their own money (the ECB can but not individual countries) and therefore they have a flawed currency mechanism and will continue to fall IMHO.

Keep in mind I am a scalper and indifferent to direction the currency goes. I'm giving you my opinion about the direction of the currency and not the direction I *want* it to go...
  • #260,357
  • Jun 20, 2010 12:56am Jun 20, 2010 12:56am
Quoting TheWalrus
The fact still remains that the US economy is strong and the US govt able to print money while Europe is stagnant and having to borrow money like third world nations. European nations CANNOT print their own money (the ECB can but not individual countries) and therefore they have a flawed currency mechanism and will continue to fall IMHO.

Keep in mind I am a scalper and indifferent to direction the currency goes. I'm giving you my opinion about the direction of the currency and not the direction I *want* it to go...
Well printing money is worse than borrowing. Printing money has always led to inflation. At least, European countries can't print money! That's way better. How can a country be able to print so much of the reserve currency of the world ?

United States can print as much money they want but look at countries like Zimbabwe of before, Weimar Republic. That's what happens when your printing money like a fool. Furthermorea, the currency crisis that is coming will hurt the USD and the USA. Prepare yourself !

I'm not saying that the Eurozone doesn't have any problems, but it will take many years before it really goes bad. I mean the USA are really closer to the edge of the cliff if I compare them to the Eurozone.

Just my 2 cents
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #260,358
  • Jun 20, 2010 1:00am Jun 20, 2010 1:00am
My two bits, I agree EUR will continue to lose ground, on a weekly/monthly basis, but I am fairly sure there will be some upside opportunities for short swings in the coming week as long as we see 2450 or a little better.
  • #260,359
  • Jun 20, 2010 1:39am Jun 20, 2010 1:39am
Even if 5 months from now it has shown substancial gains; I will continue to SELL extreme highs, BUY extreme lows.
  • #260,360
  • Jun 20, 2010 2:24am Jun 20, 2010 2:24am
Quoting Hound
Even if 5 months from now it has shown substancial gains; I will continue to SELL extreme highs, BUY extreme lows.

How do you define extreme highs and extreme lows?

It just sounds to me that you are trying to pick tops and bottoms, which is never a good idea. It might work for a while, but it's the fastest way to blow your account.

Just trade with the trend, apply proper money management, use a confirmation filter, and that's all you need for a winning strategy.
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