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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #12,661
  • Jun 17, 2010 4:06am Jun 17, 2010 4:06am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Good analysis Simpleman!

I would redraw some of your TL's though. The ones i have drawn in my chart below are the only valid ones i see.
Hi Craig,

Thanks for your reply. When I analysed the pair the swing high at 98.50 was not there so I had no TL but the lower TL I should have done it connecting swing lows and have now corrected it on my chart. I beleive trend is still up but will wait for the break of wedge.
  • #12,662
  • Edited 6:06am Jun 17, 2010 5:39am | Edited 6:06am
Dear CrudeCraig

Would you be so kind to discuss the USDCAD down move, and at which point you initiated your trade?

I have been looking to Short it too, but hadn't had the chance to do so since 2days back retest of 1.35 area.

Are you in since the 07 june doji?

..always a pleasure to read you posts

R
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #12,663
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:45am Jun 17, 2010 7:45am
Very interesting the channels on this pair.Monthly down making LH,LL.Weekly down making LH,LL and closed under the strong 0.84.Daily down ,closes under 0.84 and the strong line channels,turns to retest it and finds R at 0.84+20 ema+line channels.I wait to see some PA at this level.Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: img.gif Size: 20 KB
My humble opinion.
  • #12,664
  • Jun 17, 2010 1:42pm Jun 17, 2010 1:42pm
So quiet today where the hell is Mr Strat I miss his posts?
  • #12,665
  • Jun 17, 2010 2:22pm Jun 17, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting kratun
So quiet today where the hell is Mr Strat I miss his posts?
He's in vacation for the whole month of June.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #12,666
  • Jun 17, 2010 2:44pm Jun 17, 2010 2:44pm
Thanks Soso for your quick response. I expect him to say us all about his trip in England. Regards...
  • #12,667
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:33pm Jun 17, 2010 7:33pm
The USDJPY has been trading in a tight coil/wedge formation since the last wide ranging bar on the weekly 7 weeks ago.

It has broken out of a very tight coil/wedge formation on the daily, formed over the last 30 or so trading days (no Sunday bars on my chart).

It has now broken out of that formation on both the weekly and the daily charts.

On the monthly it is trading more or less in the middle of the range of the May controlling bar.

Overall trend on the Monthly is unclear to me following one slightly HL and an as yet unconfirmed HH.

On the attached daily chart the blue and green dashed lines show respectively the ranges of the controlling bars on the Monthly and Weekly.

It seems to me that this breakout is going to lead to trading opportunities, but as I have not seen this before, and cannot readily find any examples of a similar situation on the charts, I would like to receive opinions from other traders, especially our senior members, on how this breakout should be approached.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy monthly 18 june.jpg Size: 122 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy weekly 18 june.jpg Size: 121 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy daily 18 june.jpg Size: 139 KB
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,668
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:32pm Jun 17, 2010 9:32pm
Quoting No1Optimist
The USDJPY has been trading in a tight coil/wedge formation since the last wide ranging bar on the weekly 7 weeks ago.

It has broken out of a very tight coil/wedge formation on the daily, formed over the last 30 or so trading days (no Sunday bars on my chart).

It has now broken out of that formation on both the weekly and the daily charts.

On the monthly it is trading more or less in the middle of the range of the May controlling bar.

Overall trend on the Monthly is unclear to me following one slightly HL and an as yet unconfirmed HH....
Hi No1Optimist.
I've been watching this pair, and just recently opened a short position.
Here is my analysys that led up to my decision.

Big Boss- Making LL and LH, 20 and 50 both sloping downward indicating to expect lower prices. May candle closed as a BEEB and confluence of resistance at 20, S/R, 61.8 Fib and TL.

Boss- Although short term HH and LL, May 2 candle took out last swing low. SS formed on May 30 candle . Also resistance at ( between 78.6 and 61.8 Fib) S/R, 20 and 50. SS also closed below 20.

Worker- SS formed on June 14 and again confluence of resistance at 50,
S/R, 61.8 fib and TL.

Everything looked like basic PASR.
I entered short below June 14 SS, as RR of 1/1 was acheivable.
I will close 2/3 of position at first support of 90.00 area. if trade works out.

I also felt very comfortable with the risk of 100 pips on this one.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy Big Boss.jpg Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy Boss.jpg Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy Worker.jpg Size: 76 KB
  • #12,669
  • Jun 18, 2010 1:58am Jun 18, 2010 1:58am
Quoting GibsonL6
Big Boss- Making LL and LH, 20 and 50 both sloping downward indicating to expect lower prices. May candle closed as a BEEB and confluence of resistance at 20, S/R, 61.8 Fib and TL.
Your monthly trend line seems "unorthodox" since is not drawn from the high from June 2007. Why you used the October 2007 high for your TL?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tl.png Size: 17 KB
  • #12,670
  • Jun 18, 2010 7:48pm Jun 18, 2010 7:48pm
Quoting hcristea
Your monthly trend line seems "unorthodox" since is not drawn from the high from June 2007. Why you used the October 2007 high for your TL?
Hi hcristea!

Yes you are right. Big Boss T/L should be at June 07 high. My Boss T/L should probably be there as well. I just figured a more recent unbroken T/L would be more usefull. Thank you for your reply.
  • #12,671
  • Jun 19, 2010 1:20pm Jun 19, 2010 1:20pm
Don't quite know if these three last weekly candles are tradeable.

First one rejected by the 100. Second does a hanging man which is engulfed by the last bearish candle.

88 (and bottom of up channel) and 87 would be targets. R/R is OK.

Also price seems to already have retested the tl of the triangle it broke down, on Friday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Usd j weekly.jpg Size: 182 KB
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #12,672
  • Jun 20, 2010 12:08pm Jun 20, 2010 12:08pm
http://www.hiddenmysteries.net/gltes...00610081702539
  • #12,673
  • Jun 20, 2010 1:22pm Jun 20, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting kratun
I don't know what Strat's advanced method is, I suppose he doesn't know either.
I don't know what Strat's advanced method is, I suppose he doesn't know either.

I am Manuel in Fawlty Towers - I KNOW NOTHING!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,674
  • Jun 20, 2010 1:30pm Jun 20, 2010 1:30pm
I was wondering where you were staying. But I think the sign out front said:
Farty Towels.
  • #12,675
  • Jun 20, 2010 4:29pm Jun 20, 2010 4:29pm
Quoting strat
I don't know what Strat's advanced method is, I suppose he doesn't know either.

I am Manuel in Fawlty Towers - I KNOW NOTHING!
Glad to see your post Mr Strat. Who he knows nothing knows everything
  • #12,676
  • Jun 20, 2010 7:15pm Jun 20, 2010 7:15pm
Many pairs gapped when my metatrader platform opened. I use another broker for placing my trades. My question is... if you are using a broker that uses the metatrader charts... then what happens to your position or order with regard to the gap?

Just curious with regard to this question.
  • #12,677
  • Jun 20, 2010 7:43pm Jun 20, 2010 7:43pm
Quoting Lou
Many pairs gapped when my metatrader platform opened. I use another broker for placing my trades. My question is... if you are using a broker that uses the metatrader charts... then what happens to your position or order with regard to the gap?

Just curious with regard to this question.
It depends on the broker.

Most will not price improve but a few will.

If price gaps down below your TP order, you will be filled at the TP regardless of how far down it actually gapped.

If it gaps up above your SL then you will get hit for however high it gapped regardless of where your SL is.

I had this happen to me and while it pissed me off, they can legally do it.
  • #12,678
  • Jun 20, 2010 8:27pm Jun 20, 2010 8:27pm
Thanks Marcus, see my PM
  • #12,679
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:55pm Jun 21, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting Lou
Many pairs gapped when my metatrader platform opened. I use another broker for placing my trades. My question is... if you are using a broker that uses the metatrader charts... then what happens to your position or order with regard to the gap?

Just curious with regard to this question.
Lou, I can't/am not allowed to access my charts so I don't know the exact situation but if your broker does not include the Sunday bars from Asian trading, the difference between the Friday close and Monday open often produces a gap.

If it is a genuine gap caused by news then there is nothing we can do. However, Forex, being a 24/6 market is less prone to gaps than Futures and Commodities (an 8/5 market) and Stocks.

Many times I have been at the mercy of gaps in Futures and Commodities which is why, even though PASR works very nicely on them, I prefer to trade Forex.

Done England, done Scotland, done Ireland, (well and truly done my bank account), Wales is next this week.

Lost on changing my EUR back to GBP - damned forex!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,680
  • Jun 21, 2010 7:15pm Jun 21, 2010 7:15pm
Hi All,

A few pairs are looking good on Worker, but if you check the Bosses you would think twice.
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