Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

15 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY

Appreciation of 15 years on Forex Factory

My PASR method works on any freely traded financial instrument on any time frame.

It HAS to and does, because it is based purely on the energy and emotions (fear and greed) of the buyers and sellers otherwise known as PRICE ACTION.

There are students of PASR who trade Crude Oil, Gold and E-Minis and students who profitably trade M5, M15, H1 and H4 time frames. Indeed, on my BootCamp exercise, even M1 was traded profitably.

The choice of instrument and time fame is purely personal depending on the individual’s mentality, personality, characteristics, adrenalin, health, time and freedom.

Here is a short video explaining the basics of PASR:

http://www.screencast.com/t/c7h0VTMRT




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http://www.stratsforextrading.com

In addition to this revered thread in the Commercial Section of Forex Factory, we also have, from November 18, 2010, our own private website at http://www.stratsforextrading.com

This website has been developed from day 1 with the full knowledge of the Administration of Forex Factory in accordance with their rules of participation.

‘’Why a private website’’ I hear you ask?

The website was created to satisfy the countless requests I have received to provide a vehicle for the more serious minded students who are interested in pursuing a career in trading.

While Forex Factory continues to be THE Premier FREE website for those interested in Forex, http://www.stratsforextrading.com was created specifically for those students who wish to take their trading to the next level, whether that requires instruction more tailored to the individual or indeed, for those who seek a mentoring program.

"Why do we have to pay for forex tuition" I hear you ask?

If you can answer "Why do we have to pay for Higher (University) Education?", then you have the answer. This thread is the "high school" for forex education and the private website is the "University" for forex education. Those students who go from high school to University to major in a subject are SERIOUS in their quest for a Professional Career in their chosen subject. Similarly, those who are SERIOUS and want to Learn To Trade For A Living move to the private website to be mentored and tutored in a focused and structured environment away from the distractions and negative doubters found on public forums.


There will be no change to this thread, save its new location in Forex Factory, and it will continue as it has from day 1 on February 27, 2009; Providing the solid foundations of PASR trading.

As we have done since the beginning, we continue to support Forex Factory in all it does for the Forex community.

Good luck and profitable trading,

Strat
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INDEX TO THIS THREAD http://sites.google.com/site/stratstrading/

On the above, there are actually two Indexes. The first link on the words "INDEX TO THIS THREAD" is the original Index started early in the life of the thread. The second link is a later one to continue where the original ended. The reader should check both Indexes for complete information.

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This whole thread IS THE PATH of Learning.

The Path of Learning takes you through the following progression:

The very first thing we have to do is learn basic PASR. This involves learning and UNDERSTANDING exactly what PASR is.

We then have to learn how to IDENTIFY accurate SR levels to SUIT our particular trading style.

We then have to learn the basic price reversal candles – Hammer, Shooting Star, BUOB, BUEB, BEOB and BEEB, nothing else. At this point we have to learn the classical definitions of these candles. Do NOT think about or study other candles or patterns as they are NOT reliable and/or consistent for PASR trading.

IGNORE THE INSTRUCTION TO GO TO J16 THREAD - THERE IS NO LONGER ANY ADVANTAGE OR VALUE TO DO THAT AND WILL JUST WASTE YOUR VALUABLE TIME.

We then put this all together to do SIMPLE yet very profitable trading:

Trade from support to 1st resistance and resistance to 1st support.

At this stage, you would “paper” trade to exercise the technical content i.e., make sure your understanding of basic PASR is correct.

Doing this will bring up many doubts on SR levels and candle types etc. This is part of learning and a stage where every doubt and question must be resolved. How long this takes is up to the individual but there is NO time constraint – you learn within your own time frame.

When you have a very high success rate of doing this, you move in to REAL trading. You open an account with REAL money and trade the smallest lot size your broker offers.

This will OPEN a whole new world of “little men in your head”, “the man in the mirror” and “gremlins and demons” in you. You will learn the importance of a believed, trusted and accepted PLAN. You will go through grief and pain UNTIL you learn to CONTROL your emotions.

Again, how long it takes to master and control your emotions is up to the individual. You will continue to trade until you get to the point that you feel you can “walk on water”. Despite anything written on here, you will go through this emotion and do it. After you have been eaten up, chewed and spat out in little pieces you will learn that you are NEVER in CONTROL of your emotions and you ALWAYS have to be ON GUARD.

As you continue to trade in this manner, things that were difficult to see will become clearer and more obvious.

We will move from trading classical candle shapes, sizes and patterns to “SEEING” who and what is behind the candles, groups of candles, waves of candles etc.

We will learn to recognize market behaviour by eyeballing a chart rather than in depth analysis of a chart.

In short, we will be developing our “feel” for the market. This is a very, very personal attribute. Some get it early, for some it seems to take forever while for others, they NEVER get it.

At this point, we move into other strategies and techniques.

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Support & Resistance Levels – Recognition & Identification
See Posts #7738, #7739, #7740, #7741, #7743 and #7744

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CONFIRMED swing highs and lows - Explanation
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4483

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Refresher on the POWER OF TIME FRAMES:

Post #11342

Quick refresher on the Power of Time Frames

1) We take our direction from the BIG BOSS

2) We take our direction (and sometimes trades) from the BOSS

3) We time and initiate our trades on the Worker


So, when we do an analysis of a pair or any financial instrument for that matter:

We identify our SR levels

We find out where the BIG BOSS is relative to ITS trend AND where it is headed in the SHORT TERM relative to ITS SR levels

Knowing the direction of the BIG BOSS, we review the BOSS. If the BOSS is fighting the BIG BOSS, it will be very difficult to trade so we WAIT until the BOSS aligns herself with the BIG BOSS.

With the BIG BOSS and BOSS now in harmony (both moving together in the same direction) we drop down to the Worker.

We wait for the Worker to give us PASR in the direction of the BIG BOSS and BOSS. Rewarding and stress free trades come when we time the Worker JUST TURNING into the direction of the BIG BOSS and BOSS at PASR (as shown on the attached chart)

The MOST REWARDING and STRESS FREE trade comes when you can time the Worker turning into the direction of the BIG BOSS at THE SAME TIME as the BOSS turns into the direction of the BIG BOSS.

It sounds SIMPLE and it really is that SIMPLE but to make it stress free we MUST trade with PASR. Trying to guess trades is the best known way to blow an account.

WAIT until you SEE all the above happening.


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Example of a Student’s stress free trade

Here is a stress free example, by a Student, of trading from Resistance to 1st Support

Post #8664


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Strat's Mantra:

We TRADE TO LIVE. We are NOT like others who LIVE TO TRADE.

We know that our Health is ALWAYS more important than our wealth.

We know trading is NOT a "Get Rich Quick Scheme".

We know trading is a serious business and WE treat our trading as a SERIOUS BUSINESS

We understand we have, like any other profession, to put in the thousands of hours studying, learning and practicing our methods and techniques.

We understand there is NO SHORTCUT to becoming successful and profitable traders.

We understand that successful and profitable trading is 95% psychology and 5% technical skill. We know who and what we have to control.

We need PATIENCE to wait for and "SEE" opportunities

We need DISCIPLINE to act and trade on such opportunities

We are PLANNERS – We always PLAN each and every trade and then Trade the PLAN without exception.

We are BELIEVERS. We believe in ourselves and our PLAN.

We believe in the Holy Grail. We know what the Holy Grail is. We have found the Holy Grail and our search for trading enlightenment is over.

We can only take what the market gives us - we do "NOT" force the market.

We understand that PRICE is Lord, King, Queen and Country.

We ACCEPT losses as the cost of doing business

We are PROFESSIONALS and PROFESSIONALS look for a reason NOT to take a trade

We are NOT Amateurs. Amateurs manage money by taking RISK. PROFESSIONALS manage RISK by taking money.

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My story begins here:


At the request of traders on other Forums, I have been asked to start a thread on my style and method of trading the longer term time frames, i.e., the Daily and up.

This is my 27th year of "serious" trading having traded everything that you can hold, eat, smell, taste and grow. I started out on the Daily time frame, blew numerous accounts and over $200K. I have bought books, videos, tapes, dvds, systems, black boxes, and paid stupid, stupid money to attend seminars by those famous $million traders.

I am a degreed mechanical engineer by profession so I love technical analysis and spent hours, days, months and years modifying and developing indicators and devising my own systems. The dawn of realisation hit me several years ago when I realised all I was doing was re-living history. At about the same time, I came across a few professional traders and ex - floor traders and thought this was my golden opportunity to learn THE SECRET. Well it was - but not what I expected!

Far from having super - dooper highly fandangled systems, I learned all they had was their EYES and EARS! No fancy squiggly lines for them - if it went up, they bought; if it went down they sold. Every single one of them told me the same thing - TRADING IS SIMPLE, DON'T COMPLICATE IT.

So, I trade what the market tells me.

After having success on the Daily and Weekly time frames, I decided I needed something to do during the day, so I thought I will do the same thing but on M5 time frame. Wow, I couldn't do it. Everything was just moving too fast for me, the wheels between my ears couldn't keep up!

I then stumbled across some professional traders who left their jobs and set up on their own and published their strategy on another forum. I eventually got M5 and M15 to work for me but it was so stressful. After spending all day watching the one eyed monster for a measly 100 pips or so, I felt so mentally and emotionally drained that I couldn't sleep well at night. Then as my health deteriorated, so did my profits.

Again, another moment of realisation for me - I'm not suited for anything faster than trading the Daily. I practiced and trained myself on the Daily and up and that is where I belong.

I will post my analysis and trades here for anyone who is interested and hopefully share further insight with like minded traders.

I will apologise right now for my weird sense of humour but I need balance in my life and I know no better way than having a good laugh - usually at my own expense! I celebrated my 2nd 35th birthday last June but usually feel like a 16 year old!

I was a lead guitarist in a group back in England in the early 60s playing Buddy Holly, Chuck Berry, Roy Orbison and Elvis plus all the other stuff. I made it through the Holly inspired British rock n roll era until Jimi Hendrix came on the scene playing scales I couldn't even pronounce let alone play! (Pentatonic, Lydian, Mixolydian, Aeolian, Locrian, Dorian etc.). At that point me and my 57 Telecaster and 59 Stratocaster decided to call it a day!

I will start this off with my last post on a previous forum:



Originally Posted by Stuart14 http://www.forex-tsd.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif

Strat, do you like USD:CHF going lower longer term?

Feb 20th as reversal day, with stops above the high?

Entry below the low of the day before?


USDCHF:
Both technically and fundamentally, USDCHF is looking for direction from EURUSD.
Here is what we know technically:

Weekly:
In a corrective up move within the larger, dominant down move. This correction is now losing momentum having been rejected by Fib resistance.
The 20 continues to move in parallel above the 50 telling us to expect higher prices.

Daily:
We have a swing top in place on Feb 20 and now in a down cycle. Prices are in a corrective up cycle within the down cycle trying to re - test the swing high, however, momentum is non - existent. Again, the swing high is at final Fib resistance.
The 20 is above the 50 telling us to expect higher prices but they are converging.
There is major support at 1.1400 which, so far, is being successful in rejecting the downward attack.

What's next?
Who knows? I certainly don't.
A possible scenario is that when both the Weekly and Daily down cycles are in harmony, we may see a retrace down to their respective 38.2% Fib retracements before making a push to newer highs.

Now throw in a splash of funny mentals which are saying "we are in a world financial crisis, what shall I do with my money?" The answer, by the majority of actions, is to go to cash. "But which currency I hear you say?" GBP is teetering on the edge of the cliff with EUR a couple of steps behind. JPY is being whored by BOJ and CHF, although backed by gold, is being overlooked by the big boys so what is left? Well Japan and China are buying US$ which is still the World currency and backed by the World's largest economy (printing press) so that's the situation right now.

So how to trade USDCHF? - don't (at least not until we have clear direction).

Most currencies are in some sort of daily consolidation/ranging phase right now which is when the Pros put their hands on their wallets and the novices/amateurs use theirs like monopoly money.

Wait for the right opportunity - it is already being set up somewhere - our job is to find out where, when and which one, but it is there.

Me, I'm taking the strings off my 59 Strat to see why they are rattling on the frets so I think I'll give her a good going over.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
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THIS THREAD CONTINUES AT https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=708441

Nice axe. On older guitars sometimes the buzz is from the not so obvious problem of the nut having been slightly worn to much. I had an old "V" that needed a custom nut and it took me forever to figure it out that it wasn't my settings.

Anyway, do you ever trade lower than the daily?

Thanks ramrob,

I never thought to check the nut, but will do so now. I think it's more like that she needs re-fretting - after 50 years, it might be time!

I have tried H4 and H1 but, for me, they require too much babysitting. If you have something low maintenance, then I'm all eyes and ears!

Rock n Roll,
Strat

Hey Strat!
I have been waiting for you to start this thread for so long!
I have finally followed you to FF.

Strat has been helping me get less stress and more sense into my trading for a while. I am very grateful to him!
Listen up, he often makes a bunch of pips too!

Nicola

Stress Free Trading is everything I need now. looking forward to read about your method.I think that main reason for stress trading is undercapitalised.

Thanks

Thanks for the kind words, Nicola.

Now lets rock n roll here on FF - bring on the pips (no, not the group, the MONEY!)

Rock n Roll,
Strat

Very nice to met you here strat, looking forward to follow and participate in your tread,

regards, rock on

hans..

Far from having super - dooper highly fandangled systems, I learned all they had was their EYES and EARS! No fancy squiggly lines for them - if it went up, they bought; if it went down they sold. Every single one of them told me the same thing - TRADING IS SIMPLE, DON'T COMPLICATE IT.

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Strat,

I love your intro post. That was my trading experience from the start... gurus and signal services and indicators, indicators, indicators, when all along it is simply price action for entrys and following the tend. Got my mind right when I met Jacko here at FF and started following his mentorship. Now trading is actually boring; my greatest trading enemy is impatience! That is the account killer...

Anyway, welcome...

D

AUDUSD:
Weekly:
Made a higher low at major support but still has some downward momentum left over from the last down cycle. The retrace could only manage 32.8% and with the 20 paralleling below the 50 it is telling us there are still lower prices ahead. This week's higher volume suggests a shot at major resistance at 0.6700 with a possibility to maybe touch 0.6850 but it's really more bearish than bullish.

Daily:
At minor support and it's bottom trend line. This is the 4th time testing this bottom trend line so let's see if the Rule of 4 comes into play. Also trapped in a triangle with the trend line from the recent highs so there is a breakout coming somewhere. Price, volume, cycles and momentum say to me that it will bounce back up to the trend line at 0.6570ish before making another attack on it's base line. Too congested and not enough potential for me to trade.

CHFJPY:
Weekly:
In a strong upward cycle but bouncing off major resistance at 84.90. Volume, cycles and momentum look good for a push up to next major resistance at 88.00ish which also coincides with the 38.2% Fib retrace. Although the 20 is still below the 50, this week saw a strong close above the 20 so that is suggesting higher prices.

Daily:
Don't be fooled by yesterday's shooting star or today's hammer - the cycle and upward momentum is still very strong and with the lower volume on these two bars, it suggests profit taking to me. This high is at Fib resistance, major and minor resistance at 85ish so if it clears this we have a good run up to 85.60 and 87.30. The 20 has crossed above the 50 suggesting higher prices ahead confirmed by a cross above the Weekly 20. I'm looking for a minor retrace to go long again.

EURGBP:
Weekly:
In a down cycle with good downward momentum although it stopped dead in it's tracks at major support and the 20 at 0.8760ish with confluence of the 50% Fib retrace. The 20 is above the 50 and both are looking up at the heavens. No brainer here - my one legged blind man knows what to do!

Daily:
Bouncing off minor resistance at 0.8980ish in a corrective down cycle within the bigger up cycle. The 20 which is just below the 50 is also providing immediate resistance but we have two tests of support from the bottom trend line. On this alone, it could waffle about between the 20 and 50 but I'm looking for the Weekly to win out and maybe push it up to the down trend line at 0.9050ish

Lost my data feed so more later

Rock n Roll,
Strat

Here is something I posted on another Forum:

Belief Statement from a professional CME Floor Trader
For those of us that are battling our psyche, emotions, the little man inside our head and the guy in the mirror when we are trading, I use a Belief Statement I got from a professional CME Floor Trader. I read it before each trading session and find it particularly calming after having a couple of losing trades or when I reach my maximum allowable loss.

I made the mistake of questioning the $1 million target and was very quickly rebuked as "not having the confidence or belief in myself" so I just read it as copied:

Quote
I am a professional trader. My job is to take risk. If I manage my losses and let my profits run I will be successful. Because I am a professional trader, I will forgive myself easily for making mistakes and move on to new opportunities. I feel great that I have the discipline to control my emotions and the patience required to be a professional trader. I am a professional trader and will make $1,000,000 by year end. I will achieve this by following my trading plan, setting achievable goals, and controlling my emotions. I am confident and believe in my own ability to be consistently profitable because I AM a professional trader.
Unquote

Hope you find this helpful

Rock n Roll,
Strat

Another of my posts:

Hey Spitfire,

I hope I'm not flogging a dead horse but from my post #1532 I wrote about how reducing my lot size from $10/pip to $1/pip removed my fear of losing.

It's those gremlins, demons, inside all of us that want us to make a killing to better our standard of living. By following the gremlins and demons we trade $10/pip hoping to get $1000 from a 100 pip move. Unless we have a $50,000+ account, this is way too much for our "real and logical" emotions to handle when the trade turns into a 40 or 50 pip loss.

We have to fight those gremlins and demons and not let them interfere with our logical and "real world" thinking. As others have said, drop down to a $/pip level that is comfortable for you to accept WHEN YOU LOSE. The trick is to base it on LOSING and not WINNING. Forget about thinking how much you will win and instead focus on how much you will lose. Doing this controls your losses and you will find the winners just take care of themselves.

I was told this a long time ago and rejected it - it's taken me 9 or so years (and many $thousands lost) to finally realise and accept this and put it into practice. After doing this, I was finally able to treat my trading as a business - some you win, some you lose and after a loser, just quietly move on to the next trade.

Also, with a lower $/pip, you can put on multiple trades. Bank a third after say 20 pips and move the rest to break-even. This way you make 20 pips no matter what the rest do. If all goes well, bank another third after say 50 pips and then trail the final third.

Don't be an idiot like me, Spitfire, and wait 9 or so years, DO IT NOW!

Hope this helps.

Rock n Roll,
Strat

And another post:

Gone back to trading the Daily
I came here because I wanted more action than I was getting trading the Daily and soon found out that the action I got (pressure) was way more than I could handle.

I learned that I am more suited to doing a 20 minute analysis over 10 pairs after 2pm (PST, when NY closes) and placing limit/stop orders and letting them run, than I am doing my head in watching M15 charts all day, which also requires me to be awake and alert at non - social hours (11pm and 5am PST). Plus I can go back to doing other things during the day while my trades are working. Yes, you do need wider stops and therefore a larger account or smaller contract size.

I have just closed my Daily short GBPUSD trade at the close (1.3874) after entering at 1.4788 for a nice 914 piparoonis in 3 days.

I have now placed an order to go long at 1.4029, a couple of pips above the high of the hammer bar with a SL at 1.3615, a couple of pips below the low.

Again, I take my hat off to you guys (and Pip Queen Nicola) that can profit from these short time frames. Keep on doing what works for you.

Rock n Roll,
Strat

Structure and workings of Forex
For anyone needing information on the workings and structure of the Forex market, this is a very good link:

The Structure of Forex Brokers

With all the respect, if you take those CME Floor Brokers lock them in a room with a computer and a TV (like me and you) they will go broke in no time. Those guys get the inside scoop and that's how they make money. The information they receive well ahead of you and I makes the huge difference. They all know what's coming up regarding a buy or sell order at any given commodity long before it hits the electronic trading. One of the NYSE Floor brokers admitted one day that when you know that there are huge buy orders coming at the close a few hours ahead of time the things that you can do...

We are all trying to get a very tiny piece of the action with all odds against us. The system is designed for you and I to lose. All these indicators people follow are mostly full of crap so as all the programs and softwares. The future of a price action has NOTHING to do with the past.

The only thing could be detected by us the little guys who has no inside scoop is the early recognition of the powerful trends and reversals of those. And most of those trends are caused by fundemantals not technicals.

I hope to follow your valuable comments in this thread

Hi Strat,

Good to see you venture out on your own thread, i have watched you from a distance and i have been very impressed
I think we now have the best of both worlds with the short term pimp strategy and your longer term strategy.

Good luck and i will be following you very closely from now on and lets get those pips rolling

Paul B

The 5% of traders that make it have one thing in common the ability to wait for what they want where and when regardless of time frame.Then its the yeild curve win loss ratios ect and %r.There is no "lower time frames" its just fractals of time.To become one with the charts is the key, to know and remember all the bars how they formed and remembering your trades.This takes time and live time at that with the proper risk in relation to your system profit and loss ratio.I dont want to make a profit,i dont want a hi % return i want to build a boat of capital IN the markets rising and falling on the tides of price action.i want all my account locked off in profit IN the market and in time and i can tell you its a slow process my base capital will be replaced by markets money and the "lower time frames" are apart of that its all a question of perspective..Anything less is short term speculating which is fine and correct in range bound price action but i see this as a part of the big picture not the picture itself.I dont think 95% of them cant be traders i think 95% dont have the where with all to hold a course of action and stick to a plan.1 150 pip move on a 5min pin and there Buffet but in the end there health gives up on them.This global depession is a result of all the bad bits coming together and maybe the "wanker bankers" of the 80s and 90s have finally lost there role model status in our community.Looking around though looks like greed is blinding another generation and our desire for a get rich quick plan is as strong as ever.....

Hello Levent,

Thank you for posting

While I know the floor traders have access to information that the common "Joe" doesn't, there are still many successful, profitable and professional traders who have nothing more than us i.e., eyes, ears and a computer (some with just a laptop) and are able to consistently succeed where we fail.

Just to name a few, Wayne Jackson, Peter Crowns, Joel Renski and Mark Norris; and they are all consistently successful without indicators.

They are the examples for us to follow and emulate (well me anyway)

Rock n Roll,
Strat

Baba G,

Welcome and thank you very much for visiting this thread and posting.

Bob Marley and Reggae eh? I like that too!

I also share your distaste for the "Merchant Wankers"!

This financial and economic mess the world is in right now is our opportunity to "make hay while the sun shines". Waiting for the right set up on the Daily and Weekly is what I do best although I must admit to missing my share of moves through being too conservative.

My style is something akin to investing in that I am really looking for the next major trend so that I can get in and keep adding contracts thereby building my huge equity train. Picking off the 500 to 900 pips in small ranges and trends is just for paying the bills.

I hope you keep contributing here Baba G, and sharing your views and thoughts. Thank you again.

Rock n Roll with a touch of Reggae,
Strat

Here's another relevant post I did from January 29, 2009:

Indicator overload means paralysis from analysis
Salat,

Just a few thoughts on when I had indicators up the ying yang on my charts. I had so many that I couldn't come to a decision on anything as some would agree while others disagreed and I ended up with paralysis of analysis. I always missed fantastic trades while waiting for all the indicators to line up which they never did. Then when I went back to look at the entry, I would beat myself up because it was so obvious even without any indicator.

I used to spend hours just looking at one chart trying to work out all the nuances of what it could and couldn't do and in the end, scared myself stupid into not trading. When I learned that Professional and Floor traders just take a glance or, at the most, one minute on each chart to make a decision, I knew I was doing something wrong. These guys, or the ones I know, make $millions each year using very simple methods and always preach "the simpler the better" or "keep it simple" or "the market is not complicated" or "you don't need anything special".

I'm a technical junkie so I'm fascinated with indicators but it wasn't until I found out what my problem was that my trading improved.

My problem was FEAR - I didn't trust anything, least of all myself so I always wanted something to confirm and then something to confirm the confirmer and so on. You have to find a system/strategy that works and then learn it, believe in it, and as Mr Nike says, JUST DO IT!

Oh and your stop loss of 55 pips on EURUSD wouldn't stop a one legged blind, old man with asthma - the average daily range of the EURUSD over the last 2 trading days is 229 pips!

Hope this helps,

Rock n Roll,
Strat

Here's another post I did on Feruary 3rd, 2009:

Professional Traders vs Amateurs
Here's a quote from the book, "Techniques of Tape Reading" , by Vadym Graifer and Christopher Schumacher - "Professionals take a trade when they are comfortable with the risk, while amateurs do it when they like the potential profit."

Rock n Roll,
Strat