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  • #12,641
  • Jun 15, 2010 2:03pm Jun 15, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting benkm108
On closer inspection, i would be trading right into support at .6884. something i originally overlooked. that wouldve been unfortunate.
the 100ema and 250sma are left off my charts as i find the clutter it a little, i see where price is in relation to these on the boss chart. is that ok?
Ben
You have answered it yourself you were selling into support and yes it is better to put those two moving averages on which we can't see even on your boss chart.
  • #12,642
  • Jun 16, 2010 9:40am Jun 16, 2010 9:40am
Price at ressistanse.I am just curious what will happen at this level,although I won't be surprized to see heading towards 1.500 level.
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  • #12,643
  • Jun 16, 2010 9:59am Jun 16, 2010 9:59am
Quoting kratun
Price at ressistanse.I am just curious what will happen at this level,although I won't be surprized to see heading towards 1.500 level.
Kratun,

In keeping with the educational theme of the thread. Please post the analysis and reasoning for your call. i.e. Why you think it's headed for the 1.5000 level so we can discuss it here. Otherwise we run the risk of being accused of giving hand outs!

thanks,
Marcus
  • #12,644
  • Jun 16, 2010 10:43am Jun 16, 2010 10:43am
GBPUSD Monthly is still down and in fact shows the monthly downward momentum is still increasing despite the retrace last year. Also, last month's bearish candle is still in control.

GBPUSD Weekly shows that downward momentum is still steady and is again making LH and LL. It has also past the 61.8 fib of 'no return' and is approaching it from the bottom as resistance. Price also remains below the 20 and well below DSRI.

GBPUSD Daily has made a single HL but not a confirmed HH yet. To call it long at this point would be a great catch of the falling knife...if it's long to be. 1.4800 is an important level but is has a bit of traffic to go through to get to 1.5000, namely the 50ma, previous chop and the 50 fib.

Might it go to 1.5000? Sure. The previous few candles don't say otherwise, however, according to the method, the proper strat play for GBPUSD is still short off of SR 1.4800 or 1.5000.

To start looking for Strat method longs, you'd need to have GBPUSD above 1.5500 and have a retest of that level.
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  • #12,645
  • Jun 16, 2010 10:54am Jun 16, 2010 10:54am
Having posted my previous analysis, I'll make a more advanced case for it seeing 1.5000.

The black lines are impulse and the green lines are corrective. You might have to zoom in to see the color difference...sorry.

Without getting into EW, which I don't do. I've noticed that when you get 2 opposite impulse waves, things might be about to change.

The current move up is an impulse move as you can see by the steep angle (more buy). But the last move down was also impulse making us think that this move up might only be a correction. My call is that this move up is in fact an impulse move and that the next move down might be a HL and a corrective move. Only time will tell.
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  • #12,646
  • Jun 16, 2010 10:57am Jun 16, 2010 10:57am
The point of my last 2 posts which appear to be in opposition to each other is to show that, depending on your skill level, this can be played either way.

If you are learning the method and trading it, then you should only be looking for shorts in GBPUSD at this point in time.

If you are trading some of Strat's advanced teaching, then you can take it either way. Just be sure to post your analysis so the rest of us can learn from your point of view or discuss it.
  • #12,647
  • Jun 16, 2010 12:21pm Jun 16, 2010 12:21pm
I don't know what Strat's advanced method is, I suppose he doesn't know either.As for me Iam newbie trader so bare with me.It was just an assumption nothing more .Thank you for your kind words Mstandifer I'll have in mind what you're saying.Although the short term is up so as I've already said ,won't be surprized ,to see GBP at 1.50
  • #12,648
  • Jun 16, 2010 12:27pm Jun 16, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting kratun
I don't know what Strat's advanced method is, I suppose he doesn't know either.As for me Iam newbie trader so bare with me.It was just an assumption nothing more .Thank you for your kind words Mstandifer I'll have in mind what you're saying.Although the short term is up so as I've already said ,won't be surprized ,to see GBP at 1.50
I had hoped to get your analysis on 'why' you believe it's going to 1.5000. This is an educational thread after all. Would you mind sharing your reasons?
  • #12,649
  • Jun 16, 2010 1:13pm Jun 16, 2010 1:13pm
Quoting mstandifer
GBPUSD Monthly is still down and in fact shows the monthly downward momentum is still increasing despite the retrace last year. Also, last month's bearish candle is still in control.

GBPUSD Weekly shows that downward momentum is still steady and is again making LH and LL. It has also past the 61.8 fib of 'no return' and is approaching it from the bottom as resistance. Price also remains below the 20 and well below DSRI.

GBPUSD Daily has made a single HL but not a confirmed HH yet. To call it long at this point would be a great catch of the falling...
Good analysis. From weekly point of view, I see price bounced off at 78.6% retracement level from swing of 01-09 to 08-09. Will see how this week close.
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  • #12,650
  • Jun 16, 2010 1:55pm Jun 16, 2010 1:55pm
Good analysis Mstandifer. I wish I had your writing capability. I don't believe it will go now to 1.5000.. I feel nervous now. I'd rather sell.When I am calm I always buy . But this is different story.
  • #12,651
  • Edited 3:05pm Jun 16, 2010 2:51pm | Edited 3:05pm
Hello everybody,

The way i see it Big Boss is up, Boss is up and todays IB sat on S and 50MA.
I would be looking for Longs on the pair.
I wont take today's trade however. I don't like the look of this TL

Thank you
R
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  • #12,652
  • Jun 16, 2010 4:35pm Jun 16, 2010 4:35pm
Sorry Rubens, but could you please explain your reasoning for both the Big Boss and the Boss being up? From what I see the boss is clearly making lower lows and lower highs and the big boss has closed below important support. also, on my data todays candle has close as a BEEB

thanks, ben
  • #12,653
  • Jun 16, 2010 4:49pm Jun 16, 2010 4:49pm
To: benkm108

Yes, agreed BEOB on NY closing, when i wrote the post it was still an IB

Regarding Boss and Big Boss, I am referring to the short term/immediate trend, since the 15-25 May candle-noise. Overall trend is indisputably down

R
  • #12,654
  • Jun 16, 2010 5:00pm Jun 16, 2010 5:00pm
Quoting Rubens PP
Hello everybody,

The way i see it Big Boss is up, Boss is up and todays IB sat on S and 50MA.
I would be looking for Longs on the pair.
I wont take today's trade however. I don't like the look of this TL

Thank you
R
Your are trying to go for countertrend which is not the teachings of Strat. If you like TL then there is on more TL on your charts that is near 150.50

My advice to you is to become expert in basic PASR and don't worry countertrends.

See MSTANDIFER's post above analysing the pair.
  • #12,655
  • Jun 16, 2010 8:46pm Jun 16, 2010 8:46pm
Hi All,

Im a newbie. Just want to share what your opinion regarding USDJPY?

I see very interesting cha[IMG]file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/leo.suryatejoisworo/Desktop/usdjpy-weekly.gif[/IMG]rt. Thank you
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  • #12,656
  • Jun 16, 2010 11:16pm Jun 16, 2010 11:16pm
Quoting simpleman
My second analysis for the week is AUDCHF – Overall Trend is UP Again



BIGBOSS: Last month BEOB was the only month when prices closed below the previous two months and this month so far it is a DRAGONFLY. Prices have been respected by 61.8 fib drawn from the high of Nov 07 to the low of Oct 2008 and have closed back above TL.
[size=3][font=Calibri]BOSS: has closed above 100/250 and also above 95.30 resistance...
Good analysis Simpleman!

I would redraw some of your TL's though. The ones i have drawn in my chart below are the only valid ones i see.
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  • #12,657
  • Jun 16, 2010 11:23pm Jun 16, 2010 11:23pm
Quoting igmal
USDCAD looks good, too!

I took this trade, literally got triggered by one pip and am in drawdown right now but the daily hammer is holding so far.
  • #12,658
  • Jun 16, 2010 11:50pm Jun 16, 2010 11:50pm
Quoting benkm108
Hi all.
I have been reading the thread since late last year but am only 220 pages through and feel i am learning alot.
I would like to post a setup i have seen this evening to see how my progress is going, so if anyone could give me any feedback it would be much appreciated.

Thanks and here goes:

NZDUSD

BIG BOSS - after the big boss (bond?) shooting star of october 2009 the immediate trend has changed to bearish whilst the overall trend is also bearish after placing the lower high of october 09 (confirmed by big boss close below SS and...
Welcome Ben!

Very well written analysis! this is what we want to see from posters on the thread NOT these little one line "I think ill buy here" BS posts.

Because i do not have the time at the moment to do a Strat style reply i will just point out a couple of things that stood out at me.

First thing is the bar itself, I would have preferred a weaker close to consider this bar.

Second is the weekly bar that preceded this week, its a BUEB meaning all the time frames were not in agreement. This leads into my next point which is pretty much the same thing. Look into Mstandifers post on impulse and corrective waves. This trade may still work out but at the beginner level we want all the odds on our side.

I hope i havent been rude posting this monstrosity as my first post!


Not at all Ben! This was a great first post.
  • #12,659
  • Jun 16, 2010 11:52pm Jun 16, 2010 11:52pm
Quoting allysius2005
Hi All,

Im a newbie. Just want to share what your opinion regarding USDJPY?

I see very interesting cha[IMG]file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/leo.suryatejoisworo/Desktop/usdjpy-weekly.gif[/IMG]rt. Thank you

Please post a full Strat style analysis and we would be glad to go over USD/JPY.
  • #12,660
  • Edited 1:16am Jun 17, 2010 1:12am | Edited 1:16am
Hi CrudeCraig,
Weekly chart:
1. Creating Triangle
2. Price at 20EMA and 50SMA
3. Price in minor resistance

Daily chart:
1. 20EMA and 50SMA close each other
2. Price below 20EMA and 50SMA

what do you think? if something missing please let me know. thank you
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