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Simone Guy's 'Simple and Consistent Fibonacci Method'

  • #241
  • Jun 17, 2010 4:15am Jun 17, 2010 4:15am
Quoting d-Squared
Hi Sundog

That's impressive. Can you post your set file(s)? What timeframe did you use?

Cheers & well done!

David
The congrats go to Steve and the other coders. I just put the EA on the chart and let it run, with the Magic number history Analysis to tell me the results.

It is all default with the exception of a 150 pip distance. No money manager.

Regards
  • #242
  • Jun 17, 2010 4:28am Jun 17, 2010 4:28am
Quoting desmodeus
Hi Steve,

I'm seeing about breakeven lately from Simone in demo. I've been running RSI Trend filter off, too. And, as my minimum lot size is 0.1, I've been running with closehalf off, too. Is closehalf making a difference for you? I could go to 0.2 lots on fewer pairs and turn it on. What MPTM settings are you using above?
Breakeven + 2 at +15, then jumping stop at 20.

  • #243
  • Jun 17, 2010 4:36am Jun 17, 2010 4:36am
Quoting grandehombre
ps: Steve, what if you supplied the ex4 as well? It may help in some cases...Anyway, I can feel some A- blues coming on...
I woke up this mornin',
my platform had crashed,
My pippies are gone,
My hopes are dashed.
<solo starts here and goes forever>


This was a really useful post for those of us not fully conversant with the oddities of computer environments. It was especially useful to me, cos now I can stop worrying when someone posts about a crash after loading something. I have placed a link to this post in post 1.

___________________________

The latest Simone is in post 1 and addresses an issue that can arise when:

 

  1. Rsi trend filter is disabled
  2. you have a trade open
  3. the market retraces and crosses the 50% in the opposite direction
  4. the robot wants to place an opposite-direction trade but cannot because your criminal is a US pillock who does not allow hedging

The new trade will fail, so the robot will try again, and again, and again............

I have added code to limit the number of tries to 10. If none of the above is true, then you do not need the update.

  • #244
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:04am Jun 17, 2010 8:04am
Quoting grandehombre
Wow!
I don't mind seeing my name in lights, but not when there is a lynching party out!
LOL. I really appreciate all your excellent work here and the fact that you provide thorough instructions. Keep it up.

In my case, however, it appears that the problem was I had RSI off and was using an NFA-compliant broker. It appears Steve may have addressed these issues in the latest bot version since he called these out as issues.
  • #245
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:41am Jun 17, 2010 8:41am
Hey Steve and Crew,

Just reporting my first live results trading micro. +48 pips in 6 trades, all winners. I entered a few of these manually, and a few were entered by the EA. However-all of the gains were made due Simone's excellent strategies, and the awesome tools you guys provided. I feel like an infomercial but I love the set-up, very powerful stuff.

Anyway, keep in mind, I'm a technically challenged dude, so if I can do it...

And very cool that you can do manual and use the robot at the same time! You guys are awesome!

(default settings, except for time of operation, pip distance between trades, and lot size, no of which affects the results in terms of # of pips made)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: simoneresults.JPG Size: 49 KB
  • #246
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:52am Jun 17, 2010 8:52am
Quoting sundog
The congrats go to Steve and the other coders. I just put the EA on the chart and let it run, with the Magic number history Analysis to tell me the results.

It is all default with the exception of a 150 pip distance. No money manager.

Regards
Hi sundog,

By "a 150 pip distance" are you referring to the minimum distance between trades setting? Do you mean that you've changed that setting to 150 (which would be 15 pips) or that you've changed that setting to 1500 (which would be 150 pips)? Or, are you talking about the max TP setting?
Thanks,
desmodeus
  • #247
  • Edited 9:31am Jun 17, 2010 9:03am | Edited 9:31am
I have attached Simone's progress for the last few days.

One is a report of orders already closed and the other of orders currently open.
The account was opened with $2,000

not bad at all so far.

(edit: I use Simone alone, no other EAs. The version I use is the one from msg#1, as of about 14 hrs ago or so)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image 1.png Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Image 2.png Size: 12 KB
  • #248
  • Edited Jun 18, 2010 1:45am Jun 17, 2010 9:15am | Edited Jun 18, 2010 1:45am
[edited: 18jun2010, 12:49am, Melbourne time, GMT+10)
[edited: 18jun2010, 3:43am, Melbourne time, GMT+10)
[edited: 18jun2010, 4:45pm, Melbourne time, GMT+10 <= this is correct! I had +9)

Hi Steve,

Now that I have watched Simone run by herself for the last day or so, without me messing with her undergarments, ahem source code, and seeing some excellent results, I have a suggestion to make, borne out of pure greed!

What if we tracked the highest and lowest any order has gotten to?

The results can be written in a text file for subsequent viewing.
The format can be made to be spreadsheet-friendly too.

This would allow us some after-the-fact analysis of performance.

For example, we could say Simone generally extracts 75% of pips from an order or Simone finishes too early (for men, I believe medical science can help, alas for women I don't know :-) )

We can also how close to the SL Simone gets, as well as how close to the TP she gets (and perhaps misses it by a pip!)

I believe that info will help greatly in tweaking Simone.

(I hope this is not already in the code and I have missed it! If so, 65535 hail marys for me!)

=============
Here is another suggestion:
Any time a new Simone makes it to msg#1, she should have a build number increase, say from r14 to r15 etc (r=build release)
That way, when someone reports an issue, he can (must!!!) report the build number.

The build number should be shown on the screen (and, I'd suggest, should be included in the text entered in the orders' comments)

As for other versions that are stored in msgs throughout the thread, I'd suggest that they are called something like SimoneEX_%date% or some such.
That way we'll know that the issue someone is reporting is not about the 'stable/release' version of Simone but for one of the experimental versions.

As Simone is getting better and better, we (devs and users) will be wanting to use her for either
- benchmark testing for quite some time,
- her intended purpose, ie to make money.

For either of the above, we need stability. Thus the msg#1 version.

At the same time, we need flexibility and enhancements. Thus the throughout-the-thread versions.
People can test those versions and when they look like they are stable, they then become part of msg#1...

=============
And another one!

When users post msgs reporting issues with Simone, we'd need to know the following
- Simone release (if it is in place) or the date of the Simone.mq4 file that was downloaded.
(I'd ask for the date in the format of ddmmmyy,
eg 06jul2010, instead of 6/7/2010 which means 6jul2010 to everyone in the world, oh except Americans who read that as 7jun2010! Ahem! :-)
Sharp-eyed observers will have seen that I spell thus: colour, meter, center and theater, so I manage to annoy everybody in equal measure!
)

- their version of MT4. This can be found via the MT4 Help/About menu
- their version of Windozzze (XorbitantProfits, AstaLaVista, Win7), 32/64 bits.
- their favourite ice-cream flavour.

The last one is optional!

Cheers,
Nick
  • #249
  • Edited 12:50pm Jun 17, 2010 11:31am | Edited 12:50pm
Just reporting a bug. Occasionally Simone misdraws the breach fib. She has done it on the EU, GY, and EJ. Removing the bot then re-dragging fixes it, except with the GY, couldn't fix that even after deleting global variables and resetting. Attached example on (left) chart.

Download today 6/17; Simone, Simones Stuff, and Nicks Special Sauce.

MT4 version 4, build 226.

Windows Vista Home Premium 64 bit.

-Cheers

One more thing-no big deal-but if you change time frames on the charts momentarily while the EA is engaged, when you switch back some of the extra information will dissappear, basically everything to the left of the intraday info, meaning price levels but not the program info listed in white. Again removing the bot and redragging it does fix it.

Also, changing the EA settings on the fly does the same thing. If you try to change while EA is running, when click OK the changes take effect, but some of the price levels dissapear.

Sorry to bring more stuff up but one more thing that I noticed, which is not a bug but just a problem with the setup:

The chart on the right shows the breach fibs drawn correctly, but established by a very narrow range. For this reason if a short trade were to get triggered by passing through the lower breach, it would be selling directly into the Intraday 61.8, which is a big buy level. In this case its reenforced by the Daily Support. I was thinking maybe you could include something which says-"if above 61.8 intraday fib, then no sell." Alternatively you could put a min limit on the size of the breach fib as you have on the intraday fibs.

(OK my bad-one of the errors I reported is not the EA's fault, it was just readjusting its breach level because I took a manual trade. Sorry about that, the rest of it I think is valid)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: simoneproblem.png Size: 498 KB
  • #250
  • Jun 17, 2010 12:58pm Jun 17, 2010 12:58pm
Here are some thoughts, spoken aloud, that could have only come about at 3:31am!

(This is referring to Simone and possibly Steve's MTM but with no sauce)


I am all for flexible, adaptive software.
I am all for extracting maximum pips from any order.

That means that the software has to be able to adjust itself to get me the maximum pips.

In trading, setting a TP means that I have to estimate up front a compromise between greed and achievable/conservative ok-to-have profits.

Nothing new so far but I'd like to get peoples' ideas on how that can be optimised in our favour.

Having a trailing stop (TSL) and no TP would be one (a bit rigid) way of achieving this.

The only issue being that PA will almost always retrace for a bit before proceeding to pip heaven.

Of course, it can also reverse in which case you hope the TSL collects the $s and closes the order.

If it retraces, the trick is to have a TSL that is wide enough to accommodate the retracement, yet not too wide that it will give away too many pips, if it becomes a reversal.

So, the question is, should order management be simply a TSL, albeit with a very smart, adaptive algorithm?
If so, what should the algorithm be, to extract the maximum pips?

Note that the above is currently implemented in pretty much all of the order-manager EAs out there (the saucy one included) , in a variety of ways. For all I know, each and every one of them has got a right answer.

What I am hoping for is to harvest ideas from all the experienced traders of this forum.
The way this needs to be designed is on a piece of paper. No software to talk about.

If you can make it work on paper and your peers in this forum agree, you are on your way to stardom.

Implementing in code, is the least of our worries (disclaimers apply!).

I believe Steve's work on Simone and all the input from the traders in this forum has created a damn good EA for opening orders.
People are also putting it through its paces, which is helping Steve identify any code issues.

This is helping improve Simone more and more!

While all that is happening, it would be great if we sharpened our pencils (and I really do mean pencils!), whipped out our recycled paper and did the only thing that makes money in forex:
think, analyse, think, analyse, think, re-consider, test, dry-run and only then, execute.

I am at the think stage. How do I close an order at the best possible profit level?

Cheers,
Nick
  • #251
  • Jun 17, 2010 2:05pm Jun 17, 2010 2:05pm
I have good news and bad news.

Good: Simone is trading with the latest version and not crashing.

Bad: Simone was still open for business when she should have closed up shop. Simone SHOULD have closed up shop at 11am on my VPS time zone, but she stayed open until noon.

Let's see if she opens for business again at 10pm when she is supposed to, or if she decides to open late (or early).
  • #252
  • Jun 17, 2010 5:03pm Jun 17, 2010 5:03pm
Quoting stevefx
Just reporting a bug. Occasionally Simone misdraws the breach fib. She has done it on the EU, GY, and EJ. Removing the bot then re-dragging fixes it, except with the GY, couldn't fix that even after deleting global variables and resetting. Attached example on (left) chart.

Download today 6/17; Simone, Simones Stuff, and Nicks Special Sauce.

MT4 version 4, build 226.

Windows Vista Home Premium 64 bit.

-Cheers

One more thing-no big deal-but if you change time frames on the charts momentarily while the EA is engaged, when you switch back...
Re changing tf's whilst an ea is running, just never do it. Changing inputs does not always work either. I have added this to the user guide:
A couple of general points about EA use:

 

  1. Never change the chart time frame once you have a robot running on it. You will confuse the robot, with unpredictable effects.
  2. Dot assume that changing EA settings will work whilst the EA is up and running – often, they will not. Changing EA settings should be a 3-stage process:

  1. Make the changes in the inputs window.
  2. Save these as a set file.
  3. Drag a fresh instance of the EA onto the chart and load up your saved set file.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------


As to the confluences thingy this is the next stage in this robot's development.


No idea how to carry this forward. Manually, it is obvious and I use it all the time. Robotically is a different issue.

  • #253
  • Jun 17, 2010 5:07pm Jun 17, 2010 5:07pm
Quoting octomanoak
I have good news and bad news.

Good: Simone is trading with the latest version and not crashing.

Bad: Simone was still open for business when she should have closed up shop. Simone SHOULD have closed up shop at 11am on my VPS time zone, but she stayed open until noon.

Let's see if she opens for business again at 10pm when she is supposed to, or if she decides to open late (or early).
The problem lies with your vps. Nowt I can do about that.

  • #254
  • Jun 17, 2010 5:30pm Jun 17, 2010 5:30pm
Quoting grandehombre
While all that is happening, it would be great if we sharpened our pencils (and I really do mean pencils!), whipped out our recycled paper and did the only thing that makes money in forex:
think, analyse, think, analyse, think, re-consider, test, dry-run and only then, execute.

I am at the think stage. How do I close an order at the best possible profit level?
I know if is fashionable to angst about trade exit. To be honest, I do not understand this.

Take this system. Why are we perfectly happy to base our entries on Simone's system, yet doubt the exits? Simone trades a fib system; fib systems give trade exits as well as entries. This system offers the intraday T1 as the exit. Simone has found this works for her, so why not just go with it? It is an intraday system, after all, so we are not shooting for hundreds of pips per trade.

Like others here, I have been using mptm to lock in be profits on my demo account. What I am seeing as a result is this:

 

  1. lots of tiny +2 trades closing
  2. the accumulated profits of these being blown out of the water by those trades that never made it to be and ultimately hitting their stop. I wonder how many of those be trades would ultimately have hit the post-retrace tp and transformed the account's performance.

Early days. We shall see.

  • #255
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:08pm Jun 17, 2010 7:08pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
I know if is fashionable to angst about trade exit. To be honest, I do not understand this.

Take this system. Why are we perfectly happy to base our entries on Simone's system, yet doubt the exits? Simone trades a fib system; fib systems give trade exits as well as entries. This system offers the intraday T1 as the exit. Simone has found this works for her, so why not just go with it? It is an intraday system, after all, so we are not shooting for hundreds of pips per trade.

Like others here, I have been using mptm to lock in be profits...



Exit is far more important then entry. If you look at my "new test" experiment in fxbook you will see that I took many strategies most not profitable, and hedged a good profit with MPTM. I have faith in good future performance.

Thanks Steve
  • #256
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:14pm Jun 17, 2010 7:14pm
Quoting rfking2
Exit is far more important then entry. If you look at my "new test" experiment in fxbook you will see that I took many strategies most not profitable, and hedged a good profit with MPTM. I have faith in good future performance.

Thanks Steve
Exits cannot happen without entries. This system offers an exit based on the fib. Not sure why anyone would accept a fib-based entry yet not the same fib-based exit.

Unless they have a successful hedging strategy in place. Any offers?

  • #257
  • Edited 9:44pm Jun 17, 2010 7:40pm | Edited 9:44pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
Not sure why anyone would accept a fib-based entry yet not the same fib-based exit.

Unless they have a successful hedging strategy in place. Any offers?


Because past experience does not guarantee future results Say you get the perfect fib entry and are in nice profit. Then some news breaks and shifts the market hard in the other direction without a good fib pattern. Then you loose. Having a good fib exit is very useful and can be extremely profitable. But having some good safety nets in place would protect you from major losses. Like BE settings and a trailing stop large enough to let the market retrace then if you get a good fib exit you can save pips from closing at your SL spread.

As for hedging with fibs there is a good strategy printed in the EM code I personally hedge everything that I can. I cant seem to get the hedge scale in to work on MPTM though.

I am not doubting the idea of a fib based exit on a fib based system. I am only saying that one should always have a back up to protect profits. Then again you could always let your trades drawdown 300 pips only to close at a 4 pip profit.
  • #258
  • Jun 17, 2010 10:14pm Jun 17, 2010 10:14pm
perhaps I need to clarify:
This is not about the core exit strategy, i.e. fib based or any other.
What those strategies do, is pick a Take Profit target.

What I am suggesting is that there may some fine-tuning to be done.
For example, if you reach within 5 pips of TP and reverse, you get not much at all, unless there is some TSL in place, which in itself is a way of ensuring maximum profits.

If you get within 5 pips of TP and start oscillating backwards and forwards for some time, what do you do? Suck and see? play safe and exit then?

One way to look at it that should explain why this angst, is this:

- You are to deliver a bit of paper to your bank.
Upon delivery onto the bank manager's hands before noon, your mortgage is cleared to $0.0.
- If not but you leave the paper with one of the clerks before close-of-business, they will wipe 95% of your mortgage.
- If you cannot do either but drop off the paper in the night-box, they will wipe out 75% of your mortgage.

(strange, I know but bear with me)

If a human is given this task and he finds himself within meters of the bank manager but unable to reach him in time, he will try to come up with something, anything to reach him. He can see him, he is almost upon him.
He may just try calling him so that the bank manager walks towards him and, therefore, possibly reaching him in time. (Make the mountain come to you etc)

If the above fails and he has reached the bank at 5:00pm, when the doors have only just been locked, he may appeal to the good nature of the clerk who has only just locked them and is standing there and ask him if it is ok to slip it under the door.

And so on....

A piece of software on the other hand will be very dumb about it.
- Is it after 12pm? too bad
- Is it after 5pm. Tough titties
and so on.

The point of all this is that we, as humans, are great at adapting and improvising strategies to suit the circumstances. (not all of them are very successful, by the way, but we don't stop trying).

So, my aim with intelligent software is to let it make decisions to suit the environment of the time.

In the case of almost reaching the TP, say within 5 pips, we could make it so it also looks at, say, RSI or some MA, anything!
Anything that, if you as an experienced trader were looking at the screen, might have felt that the trade had run out of steam.
In which case, we could just close the trade, or close 90% of the lots etc.

This is not about a grand theory of exits or anything of the sort.

It is all about being able to fine-tune what order management comes up, in such a way, that it does not let a good trade become a bad one.

These messages are meant to elicit suggestions, cause discussion but not headaches! :-)

Cheers,
Nick
  • #259
  • Jun 18, 2010 12:16am Jun 18, 2010 12:16am
Hi

an observation using Simone with Nicks sauce

this Buy trade opened with no SL or TP

now it has moved into 20+ positive pips

yet still no SL or TP has been modified on the order

is it my settings or ?

any one else using this version ?
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  • #260
  • Jun 18, 2010 7:59am Jun 18, 2010 7:59am
Hello,

I am following this thread very closely and tested nearly all versions of Simone.

First of all respect to the work you all have done during the last days in developing Simone.

I am still having some ordersend errors which occur most likely due to the stop loss being to close open price.

Does anybody have the same issues? I also see that problem during backtesting.

Thanks,
Thilo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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