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  • #257,721
  • Jun 14, 2010 4:28pm Jun 14, 2010 4:28pm
Quoting Orbital
Market didnt react to much because somebody kept pushing upwards, besides this isnt the first downgrade, to many investors greeces credit rating was already Junk, the first time it was announced there was a 150 pip drop or something along those lines. So theres no big surprise here
Right. It's just piling on at this point. I'm just saying it had "some" affect.

BTW, I'm personally downgrading Greece's government-issued bonds to junk as well. Ok, go down EU.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #257,722
  • Jun 14, 2010 4:41pm Jun 14, 2010 4:41pm
Quoting RebelRed
Right. It's just piling on at this point. I'm just saying it had "some" affect.

BTW, I'm personally downgrading Greece's government-issued bonds to junk as well. Ok, go down EU.
Yeah im not disagreeing or argueing with you The only person i ever disagree and argue with is Skyzer but he is a complete tool.

Im worried about Germany and Spain at this point to be honest, Spain more than anything because as some people predicted the domino effect could come into place, im hoping this is not the case but oh well. Im liking the Euro at 1.20-22 to be honest i think its a fair valuation of the currency, anything else is just speculators getting greedy. Based on technicals im playing it down to 1.12 within this or the next two months which basically is my strategy.

Ive been criticised for the play i entered a couple of hours ago or so but as i said my timeframe on these 2 trades are rather big in comparison to the usual 2-3 hours that i hold a position.

I'm seeing clear short signals but we are within ranging mode for now which is also what happened last week. So right now im just kicking back and waiting for volume to pickup during londons session tommorow, its 23:40 here anyways so im gonna hit the bed soon, just finishing up some analysis and looking at some CFD's.
  • #257,723
  • Jun 14, 2010 4:42pm Jun 14, 2010 4:42pm
Hi

Take a look at the possible D1 retracement!
at 1.21 I will be SHORT SHORT SHORT!!!


anybody else?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: D1.gif Size: 15 KB
Follow the Trend, thats all
  • #257,724
  • Jun 14, 2010 4:44pm Jun 14, 2010 4:44pm
Quoting clambill
Looks like he has two left shoulders. lol
It broke the neck line but not sure if it hold under DP!
  • #257,725
  • Jun 14, 2010 4:48pm Jun 14, 2010 4:48pm
Quoting pauly
Hi

Take a look at the possible D1 retracement!
at 1.21 I will be SHORT SHORT SHORT!!!


anybody else?
1.220 area looks like a strong support

short only if breach of that level

tschüss
  • #257,726
  • Jun 14, 2010 4:48pm Jun 14, 2010 4:48pm
Quoting longnt
It broke the neck line but not sure if it hold under DP!
Major markets are not even open. Patience.
  • #257,727
  • Jun 14, 2010 4:50pm Jun 14, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting longnt
It broke the neck line but not sure if it hold under DP!
This could be the neck line too))
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: qwe.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #257,728
  • Jun 14, 2010 4:50pm Jun 14, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting PriceVolume
Major markets are not even open. Patience.
It's just me and that England goalie who made a boo boo trading right now. I'm confident he'll let 1.22 slide by.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #257,729
  • Jun 14, 2010 4:52pm Jun 14, 2010 4:52pm
I'll probably try a long @ the touch of whichever teal trend line(if we bounce). they could line up with 2133/2140 or even 2194 is a number that I have on a bigger chart on the top teal trendline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu delete.gif Size: 58 KB
  • #257,730
  • Jun 14, 2010 4:56pm Jun 14, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting Orbital
Im worried about Germany and Spain at this point to be honest
Why are you worried about Germany? It's one of the safest, best disciplined countries in the world. The rest of Europe is begging them to spend and consume because all they do is save and live within their means. The Euro is essentially a German currency. Without Germany, the Euro would be worth half as much because every other country in the Eurozone spends money like Michael Jackson but on a social security-like income. Despite all of this and much to the displeasure of the rest of Europe, Germany is STILL planning austerity cuts. Which they don't need, but obviously can't hurt except for possibly slowing down growth in the short term.

Quote
Spain more than anything because as some people predicted the domino effect could come into place

Yup, contagion. It WILL happen.
  • #257,731
  • Jun 14, 2010 4:59pm Jun 14, 2010 4:59pm
Quoting uraceulose
I'll probably try a long @ the touch of whichever teal trend line(if we bounce). they could line up with 2133/2140 or even 2194 is a number that I have on a bigger chart on the top teal trendline.
Attachment
I sold 1.5 Lots from 1.2240
I think 1.2190 Tp1
AND SECOND TP 1.2150 IS A GOOD PLACE
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #257,732
  • Jun 14, 2010 5:01pm Jun 14, 2010 5:01pm
Quoting TheWalrus
Why are you worried about Germany? It's one of the safest, best disciplined countries in the world. The rest of Europe is begging them to spend and consume because all they do is save and live within their means. The Euro is essentially a German currency. Without Germany, the Euro would be worth half as much because every other country in the Eurozone spends money like Michael Jackson but on a social security-like income. Despite all of this and much to the displeasure of the rest of Europe, Germany is STILL planning austerity cuts. Which they don't...
Germany is fiscally responsible yes. They are also not the wisest investors(government)..the majority of PIIGS debt is held by Germany and France..
You think they're gonna pay it back? Germany has been counting on it..even if they do, it will be worth way less because of all the trouble..
they do need the cuts, their people don't consume much as it is either in the way of goods/services. which isn't good for the other euro countries that do nothing but consume...
  • #257,733
  • Jun 14, 2010 5:02pm Jun 14, 2010 5:02pm
Quoting TheWalrus
Why are you worried about Germany? It's one of the safest, best disciplined countries in the world. The rest of Europe is begging them to spend and consume because all they do is save and live within their means. The Euro is essentially a German currency. Without Germany, the Euro would be worth half as much because every other country in the Eurozone spends money like Michael Jackson but on a social security-like income. Despite all of this and much to the displeasure of the rest of Europe, Germany is STILL planning austerity cuts. Which they don't...
Actually most of the EU economy is based on Germany and France as the biggest spenders and earners.

The issue here is that if there is a single negative report about germany faking around with their balance sheet or problems within the german area the Euro will be on its knees faster than a hooker at a sex addicts convention... sorry couldnt find any other metaphor

Spain is obvious as you see for yourself. Not sure if contagion will kick in or not, time will tell. For now im expecting euro to build new year lows at 1.12 or 1.15 for this year and then resuming an uptrend but not before that, The reason for this is because 1.10000 is an extreme psychological barrier which will be hard to shatter and 1.12 seems like a very sweet spot based on my analysis

Still holding those shorts i entered where people mentioned it was a bad trade and ill loose my pants shorting etc but bla bla, newbies who have no clue

Ill be watching this patiently for now as i said this is a long term trade, im entering many countertrades and have been during the day, i posted my charts, gave an explanation and thats got to suffice

Juergen Stark had an interessting interview with BBC radio today about the Eurozone and its problems and personally... hes talking out of his ass. Yes the situation isnt that bad but the fact that the ECB and the European Economic Council let it go this far is an example for the shining ineptitude of Finance ministers keeping their shit together. US will not like the euro at this level for long because it costs them in Exports/Imports so the Fed will eventually step in sooner or later. China is keeping their euro reserves for now so we will see what happens.
  • #257,734
  • Jun 14, 2010 5:10pm Jun 14, 2010 5:10pm
I went long on the touch of that 50 line, it ended up being right on the dpp..sweet. 30 pip stop, 2300 target for now

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu delete1.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #257,735
  • Jun 14, 2010 5:10pm Jun 14, 2010 5:10pm
Call me crazy but the EU may go up to daily R1 at 1.2300.

I am long from the pivot 1.2211 , target maybe 40-50 pips. Mark this post.
  • #257,736
  • Jun 14, 2010 5:11pm Jun 14, 2010 5:11pm
Quoting bad$ala
1.220 area looks like a strong support

short only if breach of that level

tschüss
Hi

when this last D1 candle breaks, its Vuvuzela ALARM !!!!!!!!!!

DEUTSCH-LAAAAAND DEUTSCH-LAAAAAND
Follow the Trend, thats all
  • #257,737
  • Jun 14, 2010 5:12pm Jun 14, 2010 5:12pm
Quoting uraceulose
I went long on the touch of that 50 line, it ended up being right on the dpp..sweet. 30 pip stop, 2300 target for now

Attachment
URACeulose we made the exact trade!! Where is your pivot 1.2211 ?? Do you use NY close as a start for the day ?? Can you please share your indi because mine has no labels!?
  • #257,738
  • Jun 14, 2010 5:15pm Jun 14, 2010 5:15pm
Quoting uraceulose
I went long on the touch of that 50 line, it ended up being right on the dpp..sweet. 30 pip stop, 2300 target for now

Attachment
Trail it tight man.
  • #257,739
  • Jun 14, 2010 5:18pm Jun 14, 2010 5:18pm
if this thing hits .23 i'm going to short up a storm. don't have the balls to go against the long-term trend. good luck everyone!
  • #257,740
  • Jun 14, 2010 5:21pm Jun 14, 2010 5:21pm
The Bear is healing and has His Eye on the Gap from Sunday night. In the meantime, those who do not wish the Bear well, have caused a little bounce off 1.2208. He may just reach out and snag an unwary Bull calf around 1.2255, if He comes close to His Den. He was sleeping the last time this happened.

Madaam B is so sure 1.17 will be touched, She's busy trying to work up a four handed double Deck Pinochle Game. Got the Ball under a Velvet cover.
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