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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,641
  • Edited 2:02am Jun 13, 2010 1:49am | Edited 2:02am
Quoting jackm1
Here is my low down on COT if you care.

COT has never worked for me but than again I am short term player, mostly daily charts.
I even tried Patience's SSI and its spotty too.

Sooooooo........I say look for Shahab's trade ideas, combined with SSI and fibo and other stuff.

Making 10 to 15 pips is a child's play if you trade 15 min to 1Hr charts and only trade between English and American market timings, around 2 am to 11 am New York time.

Hope that helps.
I agree, every little bit of information helps but there is no holy grail anywhere. In the end it comes down to the individual's experience Neither Patience or Shahab8b have ever said anything different.
Quoting desifxtrader
This thread has lost it's originality:

COT Chart & explanation + Trade ideas

I might sound like a grumpy newbie, but I'm missing it.
All the information regarding C.O.T is freely available on the net. There are good threads here dealing with the sublect including systems for trading it
You could do your own research and report your findings here
"Be the change you want to see in the world." - Ghandi
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #3,642
  • Jun 13, 2010 8:38am Jun 13, 2010 8:38am
Quoting ben10
i hope others who know this stuff(cot) keep posting and continue sharing the knowledge , im hungry for more
hey ben.... noticed someone posted a chart with large traders vs commercials on it..... those 2 groups should not be compared..... actually some say the commercials should be ignored all together.... the reason is complex......

what should be compared is the large traders vs the small traders..... miss p's fxcm ssi info is the small traders.... now compare that to the large specs/traders and you'll see why fxcm says,

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.05 as nearly 51% of traders are long.... The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

it's admirable for fxcm to post such info on their traders...... hard for me to believe they do it...... but fxcm is not trying to say, dang we got a bunch of dumb hayseed traders, their trying to subtly say, hey guys and gals, are you sure you want to be long....


the reason the ssi appears to have a spotty record is because occassionaly the fxcm traders do get it right, they are aligned with the large specs/traders..... then the ssi indication might be wrong....

large specs/traders tend to be more like cool hand luke ...... h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #3,643
  • Jun 13, 2010 8:54am Jun 13, 2010 8:54am
E/U :COT net positioning
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  • #3,644
  • Jun 13, 2010 9:10am Jun 13, 2010 9:10am
A/U

COT : Net positioning and COT index 13W.
Note the extreme COT index reading warns of a correction and Net positioning change from Long to Short/visa versa warns of a reversal


A note to the people who think sentiment and COT are none sense.Please go and educate yourself, not for me but for improving on your trading results.
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  • #3,645
  • Jun 13, 2010 12:45pm Jun 13, 2010 12:45pm
Quoting shahab8b
A/U


A note to the people who think sentiment and COT are none sense.Please go and educate yourself, not for me but for improving on your trading results.
Shahhab,

I was drawn to your post by the title "COT". And while COT does work for a longer term perspective, it does not work, not for me at least, when designing short term trading solutions.

I downloaded six years of excel from COT's site and ran various computer based statistical reports and ideas against all the data that was available.

And yet it could not produce a system that would buy or sell on any given day, follwoing the COT release, and B/sell on any other day after and always turn a profit.

It just did not happen. Therefore, I am back to my short term TA based systems that do work everyday, during Eu and US open, and almost without fail.

I enjoy life when I have no position left open, and if left open, I am already in the green and there is a trailing stop loss on it.

Other than that, I would rather bite my nails when I am at the computer than away from the computer and wondering what if I am in loss or golly would I ever come out of this situation or what.

Just can't live with that kinda stress.

So while I may never think COT is a non-sense, but in my belief and testing, COT works well for weekly or perhaps monthly trades but not so well on " buy today sell tommorrow " kinda deals.

Unless otherwise you show me some trick or an idea covering short term trading using COT, this is where I stand.
  • #3,646
  • Jun 13, 2010 5:07pm Jun 13, 2010 5:07pm
Quoting jackm1
Shahhab,

I was drawn to your post by the title "COT". And while COT does work for a longer term perspective, it does not work, not for me at least, when designing short term trading solutions.

I downloaded six years of excel from COT's site and ran various computer based statistical reports and ideas against all the data that was available.

And yet it could not produce a system that would buy or sell on any given day, follwoing the COT release, and B/sell on any other day after and always turn a profit.

It just did not happen. Therefore,...
The concept is to get the bigger picture, then trade in the direction of the large trend. It doesn't work on small TF ,going for 10-20 pips.

In addition, I mentioned in the first page of this thread COT can be used as a set up condition not a signal for entry or exit.

Btw, would you mind showing me the kind of statistical analysis you did on COT report.What model did you use?
  • #3,647
  • Jun 13, 2010 5:12pm Jun 13, 2010 5:12pm
HI shahab,
On the astrological aspect of things, I cant see any sharp rises for either the AU or the EU. The USD index looks like it will touch 90 shortly. I can see the butterfly in your charts for the AU which shows a level of .88 quite possible, and a major drop from there, but timing wise I dont think it will make it there. Reason for that is the Europe situation, conjunction of Saturn and Jupitor over EU is quite a rare one, this can and will create major disasters for Europe. The effects will be seen in AU due to risk factor, and USD index.

Safe trading
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #3,648
  • Jun 14, 2010 12:11am Jun 14, 2010 12:11am
Hi Shahab,
I can see the opportunity in selling AUD at current level of .8568, I still do not think it will clear 8580. Based on what I have mentioned before, here are my trades:

I have taken a 5 lot short on AUD at 8568, plus my existing short SL .8612

I added an extra short on EU 1.2190 SL 1.2220.

JPY Limit sell at 92.19 SL .9250

I got SL on DOW, but will enter again as I think the highest will be 10299 in this cycle.

I am also considering the june expiry of USD Index, and indices, so will take profit and exit before 15th June.

There are a couple of corporate take overs and hence demand for GBP may be high which will push the price up again. Although I am in favour of GBP short, I am going to sit on the side lines for the moment.

.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #3,649
  • Jun 14, 2010 12:35am Jun 14, 2010 12:35am
Quoting Patience
Hey Ben - you can check here for COT analysis on a weekly basis http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/C....aspx#previous
thanks a lot, i guess i need a lot of reading before posting any call!
  • #3,650
  • Jun 14, 2010 12:41am Jun 14, 2010 12:41am
Quoting hayseed
hey ben.... noticed someone posted a chart with large traders vs commercials on it..... those 2 groups should not be compared..... actually some say the commercials should be ignored all together.... the reason is complex......

what should be compared is the large traders vs the small traders..... miss p's fxcm ssi info is the small traders.... now compare that to the large specs/traders and you'll see why fxcm says,

[font=Arial][i]The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.05 as nearly 51% of traders are long.... The...
thank you Hayseed!
  • #3,651
  • Edited 5:50am Jun 14, 2010 5:35am | Edited 5:50am
Quoting hayseed
hey p..... ahha.... so it's deadly accuracy your after..... perhaps taking up calligraphy might help..... fwiw, nameless was surgically accurate and still died in the end....
No, I'm not that good I just added the deadly accuracy for a laugh. I call them ninja trades because I'm in and out (generally). Get stuck on a few occasions but hey, ho, I've got a lot of time and rollover to collect so it's not so painful ... I was wondering which way you were positioned given your comment on the SSI. I guess you are still looking long on USD/CAD given your long term relationship with Miss Loonie.

Risk is on man, don't get caught with your shorts down.

SSI: USDCHF Ratio Flips Following 33% Jump in Longs
Monday, 14 Jun 2010 10:15 GMT
Written by Michael Wright

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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Intraday Highlight:

USDCHF - 53% of retail traders are long (long to short ratio is 1.14). . Last week, the ratio was at -1.70 as 63% of open positions were short. Retail has been buying more USDCHF (long positions are up by 56.7% since last week). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDCHF has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDCHF.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - 55% of retail traders are short (long to short ratio is -1.25). . Last week, the ratio was at 1.45 as 59% of open positions were long. Retail has been selling more EURUSD (short positions are up by 38.8% since last week). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the EURUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY EURUSD.

GBPUSD - 58% of retail traders are short (long to short ratio is -1.39). . Last week, the ratio was at 1.04 as 51% of open positions were long. Retail has been selling more GBPUSD (short positions are up by 24.8% since last week). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the GBPUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY GBPUSD.

GBPJPY - 52% of retail traders are long (long to short ratio is 1.07). Retail has been buying more GBPJPY (long positions are up by 1.1% since last week). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the GBPJPY has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL GBPJPY.

USDJPY - 54% of retail traders are short (long to short ratio is -1.17). . Last week, the ratio was at 1.55 as 61% of open positions were long. Retail has been selling more USDJPY (short positions are up by 94.5% since last week). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the USDJPY has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY USDJPY.

USDCAD - 68% of retail traders are long (long to short ratio is 2.13). Retail has been buying more USDCAD (long positions are up by 41.4% since last week). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDCAD has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDCAD.

AUDUSD - 62% of retail traders are short (long to short ratio is -1.66). . Last week, the ratio was at 1.68 as 63% of open positions were long. Retail has been selling more AUDUSD (short positions are up by 87.6% since last week). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the AUDUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY AUDUSD.

NZDUSD - 64% of retail traders are short (long to short ratio is -1.75). . Last week, the ratio was at 3.08 as 76% of open positions were long. Retail has been selling more NZDUSD (short positions are up by 133.9% since last week). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the NZDUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY NZDUSD
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Daily_14_June_2010.pdf   123 KB | 321 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,652
  • Edited 6:56am Jun 14, 2010 6:42am | Edited 6:56am
[quote=jackm1;3797124]
Quoting Patience
Well if FXCM's sentiment index were the holy grail, we'd all be billionaires

SSI: Retail GBPUSD Shorts Collapse as Pair Tumbles Through Friday’s Session

LOL. Patience, you got that right. We all know there is no HG for trading.

And while I do well using the simplest of TA, I still look for new ideas out of boredom. When I saw your SSI, I tried building a short term system around it.

As long as I get my fill of 15 to 20 pips a day using a simple TA, I am happy, and you know your boys U/CHF...
Quoting jackm1
Shahhab,

I was drawn to your post by the title "COT". And while COT does work for a longer term perspective, it does not work, not for me at least, when designing short term trading solutions.

I downloaded six years of excel from COT's site and ran various computer based statistical reports and ideas against all the data that was available.

And yet it could not produce a system that would buy or sell on any given day, follwoing the COT release, and B/sell on any other day after and always turn a profit.

It just did not...
That is the problem here.

You try to make every approach, tool, method mechanical for yourself. Making systems with generalized rules that it could effortlessly make you some pips without putting any thoughts,efforts or DISCRETION in the process. (hell anybody would like to have a system like that and this is why there is a big market for commercial EA's)

I used to do this back in 2008 when i was new to all this ( once i thought that rsi(3) is the holy grail) but after 1 year i realized that there is no such thing as that and if there is one,... either it would be to complex for my small brain or to simple so i can never realize it.

No offence intended just my thoughts and i could be wrong.
.
  • #3,653
  • Jun 14, 2010 11:28am Jun 14, 2010 11:28am
No offence intended just my thoughts and i could be wrong.
.[/quote]

No offence taken. However, I do not belive in "free lunch" on wall street or anything else similar for that matter.

But yes, I worked hard at time, to develop a system using COT so I do not have to work hard forever, that, I sure tried to do.

Anyways, when I am not trading, I am still working like a mad scientist on some crazy idea to extract money from the market.

But like I said, using simple TA, I still take my share of 10-20 pips a day and then go back to the drawing board to build a system that will be some sort of " fire and forget " system.

I do have a system that uses COT and trade weekly charts but it has large drawdowns, something that needs fixin', other than that I can still pull some big ones using COT alone.
  • #3,654
  • Edited 3:39pm Jun 14, 2010 1:12pm | Edited 3:39pm
Quoting shahab8b
E/U :COT net positioning

Hi shahab,

More than happy to get these posts again!!

It's pretty insightful and helpful.

Thank you,
merda taurorum animas conturbit
  • #3,655
  • Jun 14, 2010 2:49pm Jun 14, 2010 2:49pm
Quoting jackm1
No offence intended just my thoughts and i could be wrong.
.

No offence taken. However, I do not belive in "free lunch" on wall street or anything else similar for that matter.

But yes, I worked hard at time, to develop a system using COT so I do not have to work hard forever, that, I sure tried to do.

Anyways, when I am not trading, I am still working like a mad scientist on some crazy idea to extract money from the market.

But like I said, using simple TA, I still take my share of 10-20 pips a day and then go back to the drawing board...
R&D is always a good thing. You'll make pips by using other people's free methods posted on internet forums, but it won't make you rich.

You need to come out with something of your own that suit your personality, needs and should be realistic of course.

it's like a music artist, Practicing the art/instrument for 97% of the time and performing it only 3% of the time.

Good Luck.

P.S: Sorry for clogging the thread guys.
.
  • #3,656
  • Jun 14, 2010 3:34pm Jun 14, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting hayseed
hey ben.... it's admirable for fxcm to post such info on their traders...... hard for me to believe they do it...... but fxcm is not trying to say, dang http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s..._the_floor.gif we got a bunch of dumb http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s..._the_floor.gif hayseed traders, their trying to subtly say, hey guys and gals, http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/thinking.gif are you sure you want to be long....


the...
True.

Inserted Code
h@@p://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Contrarian_Traders_Target_EUR_USD_at_1194533298636.html
http://i48.tinypic.com/zl8zn4.gif

Quote
EURUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.94 as nearly 66% of traders are short, according to our dealing desk data on the positioning of more than 20.000 retail traders. Moreover, open interest is 2.4% stronger than yesterday but 13.4% below its monthly average, mostly on profit taking by euro longs. In the past, when the majority of retail traders were short and selling more, the EURUSD has rallied in the following days. Assuming, this rule holds true for the week ahead, the SSI gives us a strong...
merda taurorum animas conturbit
  • #3,657
  • Jun 14, 2010 4:48pm Jun 14, 2010 4:48pm
HI all,
can see a cup and handle on Gold. Downside will be to 1175, Up swing will be quite big. These match with my astro cycle as well. As i dont have free pen on CMC charting tools, I had to suffice with an oval on the area concerned.
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Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #3,658
  • Jun 14, 2010 5:08pm Jun 14, 2010 5:08pm
Quoting Patience
I was wondering which way you were positioned given your comment on the SSI.,,,,, I guess you are still looking long on USD/CAD given your long term relationship with Miss Loonie.
hey miss p.... not much on accuracy myself.... way too laid back for that..... prefer volume.....

if by chance you've seen the movie hero, you might remember the archers of qin were 'legendary'.... not because of their accuracy, but because of sheer volume.... they got the job done....

the same is my approach.... shoot a lot of arrows at a single target.... about 15 hours ago the usdjpy orders hit ..... now it's time to start over....., please no one take this as trading advice...

you might note the ssi traders are short the usdjpy.....

//-----
//-----


you asked of miss loonie...... what sharp eyes you have......

those usdcad arrows hit their target also..... now it's time to start over..... but not just yet..... one thing i've learned over the years is to respect the big money..... big money appears long the cad , which is roughly the same as short the usdcad... the average daily zigzag move is 485 pips, we come 630..... it might bounce but ......

in times like this, the ea's will drag buystops down as the price drops.... this way there is no drawdown.... once the price turns, it always does, me and miss loonie will have a lot of makinup to do....... and plenty of time to do it......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #3,659
  • Jun 14, 2010 9:20pm Jun 14, 2010 9:20pm
Short entered G/U 1.4751
SL = 30
TP = 30
Daily Chart


Reason:
Stochs and RSI oversold
S/R level reached
  • #3,660
  • Jun 14, 2010 9:34pm Jun 14, 2010 9:34pm
Short entered A/U 0.8565
SL = 30
TP = 30
Daily Chart


Reason:
Stochs and RSI overbought
S/R, R level reached
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