Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

Here is a chart of historical positioning on AUD/USD from Oanda. It shows that all the while AUD/USD was dropping traders were net long consistently above 65%. A shift from extreme long positioning has only occurred very recently and coincides with price gains. Positioning is still net long at 52% but I interpret the lack of extreme to suggest that good moves in either direction can be expected with an increasing bias long as traders reduce there long positions.

Hi Gents,
CMC are a private co. but GS owns 10%. They were/are an FX broker, which is their forte. I use different brokers for different markets. For example www.igmarkets.co.uk for EU Indices.
Those fx spikes of last week were erroneous, bad data; cable didnt spike 10c and back in 1 minute There was however a smaller spike at the same time on YM/DOW, not that unusual considering how thinly its traded, which is(amongst other reasons) why most folks avoid that index. cheers.

Hey Ben - you can check here for COT analysis on a weekly basis http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/C....aspx#previous

hi guys
sorry but i want to receive the answer of my old question
so i repeat it here again
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3589

I can suggest a couple of things. Use "Net Position" instead of "COT Position" in Net Position or Index Box. Also tick "Specs". I think seeing positioning of Specs is important. Commercials are basically hedging etc. Maybe next time Shahab pops in he can let you know exactly what settings he uses.

SSI: EURUSD Positioning Points to Slowdown in Gains, but no Turnaround Yet
Friday, 11 Jun 2010 10:18 GMT
Written by Michael Wright

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:




Intraday Highlight:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.02 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.15 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 8.0% higher than yesterday and 15.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.8% lower than yesterday and 53.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.7% stronger than yesterday and 110.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

SSI Details:

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.54 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.84 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.9% higher than yesterday and 10.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.3% lower than yesterday and 65.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.2% weaker than yesterday and 128.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.05 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.09 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.7% higher than yesterday and 5.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.5% lower than yesterday and 62.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.0% stronger than yesterday and 120.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at -1.12 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.8% lower than yesterday and 10.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.2% higher than yesterday and 107.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.8% weaker than yesterday and 157.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY gains.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.27 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.27 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.0% lower than yesterday and 82.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 0.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.2% stronger than yesterday and 124.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.31 as nearly 70% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.61 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.5% lower than yesterday and 50.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.7% higher than yesterday and 22.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.1% weaker than yesterday and 117.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.38 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.76 as 64% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.9% higher than yesterday and 4.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 13.0% lower than yesterday and 104.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.4% weaker than yesterday and 131.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.33 as nearly 57% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.63 as 62% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 17.4% higher than yesterday and 40.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.8% lower than yesterday and 80.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.2% stronger than yesterday and 101.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

Hi there,
The charts show strong resistance in the way up for A/U ,E/U. Gold has made a possible double top.I'm cautiously bearish as we have a possible double bottom pattern in A/U,However I favor the R to hold.

I explained COT analysis by charts every week for more than 5 months.There are enough materials in the posts to understand COT analysis.Whenever you finish reading all my posts then let me know.

On a separate note, I added "+ Trade ideas" to show we dont restrict ourselves to COT.

Hi Shahab

why i can post in your thread "600 Pips a Month with Shahab and GeppyG".
the message "If you can't post to a certain thread, you might be blocked by the thread-starter"

Regards Peyman

Hi Payman
You are not blocked, You need one Vouch to post there.I've just vouched you, you can post from now on.

thanks for your answer
i try it, seems shahab is too busy to answer, wish you best guys

Thanks man.

I explained in the fist page of the thread , but it seems you didn't read it so I explain again.

We look at tow things 1-Net positioning of Non-commercial/Large Institutes 2-COT Index (13 Weeks) for the same group
When you are looking at my chart consider what that chart is (Net P or Index), Index is always ranges between 0-100 but Net has no specific range as it shows the number of Net (Long/Short) contracts.

Here is my low down on COT if you care.

COT has never worked for me but than again I am short term player, mostly daily charts.
I even tried Patience's SSI and its spotty too.

Sooooooo........I say look for Shahab's trade ideas, combined with SSI and fibo and other stuff.

Making 10 to 15 pips is a child's play if you trade 15 min to 1Hr charts and only trade between English and American market timings, around 2 am to 11 am New York time.

Hope that helps.

Well if FXCM's sentiment index were the holy grail, we'd all be billionaires

SSI: Retail GBPUSD Shorts Collapse as Pair Tumbles Through Friday’s Session
Friday, 11 Jun 2010 21:13 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.21 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.84 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 26.7% higher than yesterday and 4.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 43.0% lower than yesterday and 3.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 18.4% weaker than yesterday and 1.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

SSI Details:
EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.15 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 17.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.4% lower than yesterday and 44.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.8% weaker than yesterday and 3.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.39 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.09 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.4% higher than yesterday and 1.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 27.7% lower than yesterday and 18.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.9% weaker than yesterday and 0.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at -1.21 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 11.8% lower than yesterday and 5.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.8% higher than yesterday and 112.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.9% weaker than yesterday and 29.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY gains.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.09 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.27 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 27.2% lower than yesterday and 33.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.3% higher than yesterday and 1.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 14.7% weaker than yesterday and 5.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.23 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.61 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.2% lower than yesterday and 36.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 27.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.1% weaker than yesterday and 4.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.48 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.76 as 64% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.6% lower than yesterday and 15.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 17.0% lower than yesterday and 94.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 11.4% weaker than yesterday and 14.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.55 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.63 as 62% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.0% higher than yesterday and 44.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.8% higher than yesterday and 94.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.8% stronger than yesterday and 3.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

[quote=Patience;3796690]Well if FXCM's sentiment index were the holy grail, we'd all be billionaires

SSI: Retail GBPUSD Shorts Collapse as Pair Tumbles Through Friday’s Session

LOL. Patience, you got that right. We all know there is no HG for trading.

And while I do well using the simplest of TA, I still look for new ideas out of boredom. When I saw your SSI, I tried building a short term system around it.

As long as I get my fill of 15 to 20 pips a day using a simple TA, I am happy, and you know your boys U/CHF and G/U will deliver that any given day.

We all can trade till the cows come home but why bother, choose the best volatile time for trading and that will work out well.

Yup, sounds so simple doesn't it Most of my trades these days are ninja trades with 95% on A/J. I try to keep it simple as well - 5 minute and 15 minute charts with a couple of MA's and RSI (and an idea of where pivots are). I've even given up on any deep analysis lately because ninja trading doesn't require it - it's more a go with the flow thing so it definitely cuts down on the weekend chart analysis. Now I've just got to get the guts to increase my leverage and 15 to 20 highly leveraged pips would make me happy as well.

hey p..... figure i better first google ninja befor asking ...... other than a good looking girl wearing 2 great big swords and not much, i came up empty handed.....

it sounds kinda dangerous but just gotta ask...... what are ninja trades.......

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and btw, thanks for the , (SSI) Statistics ....... either they have a few right this time or i'm as wrong as them .......h

Deadly accurate short term trades I've just got to improve on my deadly accurateness

I see Shahab's bud, Robert Prechter, is calling for a short term top on the US$. Let us remember that he called a bottom on the US$ in September 2009. It took three months for that to play out ... (video in link) http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...sing-Bell.aspx

hey p..... ahha.... so it's deadly accuracy your after..... perhaps taking up calligraphy might help..... fwiw, nameless was surgically accurate and still died in the end....

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sent my fair share of funds to pretcher over the years.... his biggest failing is he is so caught up in the counting down waves he refuses to take the up waves seriously......

his most accurate timing was calling the top in the real estate market..... usually he is way early on his calls......

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with a little surgical precision trading, 2010 should provide everything we need to make a fortune in forex ..... i've worn out 3 hero dvd's preparing for it......h