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  • #257,101
  • Jun 12, 2010 10:29am Jun 12, 2010 10:29am
Quoting TEB63
could happen I really do not know but for the 3 following things

1st. the cot chart seem to point down VERY VERY strong
Attachment

2nd. the news is still very baad in europe
(hear what you say about the usa but its not yet a driving forse)

3rd. the day week month and 4 hour(weaklly) 4 hour
are all still strongly bear.

teb
That is confidence & so looking the higher tf , I agree to you too . even it can go the higher level of the range 1.2231 , does not matter for the bear .perhaps , bear seems fully ready now within the range of 1.2155 range or less as per weekly tf .
fontu
sorry the charts are not clean .
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #257,102
  • Jun 12, 2010 11:49am Jun 12, 2010 11:49am
Quoting fadi66
hi there ;

i trade only eurusd for 2 years almost and its great pair to trade with for me , ok lets go for bussnies man ;
i see the EU these days i a really strong res. that very hard to break that he tried also to break many time but there where no opened candel above 1.21550 and we can see that very cleared in the 4H chart ...but what i wanted from you is the news for the eur and the usd if there is anynews that relly effect this pair write and inform us ,

regards ,
Ok man, enough small talk, let's get with the business!

The two most important recent news events for the E/U came not long ago. They fit together in the form of conflict -> resolution and marked the inflection point on 6/8 and coincided with the first breach of the bracketed zone to the upside (you can see it on your 4 hour chart) shortly after the release of the 2nd report. Price fell back after the top was breached and I'm not sure that many were aware of what was happening, most likely not putting the price action together with the news report. Market tone started shifting after the 2nd report, so apparently some other large institutions took the concept literally, that it was safe to buy again now that an agreement for a permanent facility was reached.

On Wednesday there were signs of accumulation as the top was breached again and held for a time on the breakout, and the same on Thursday though price held in much better (so much so that even some ppl on message boards started to take note) and showed further signs of accumulation. Whether it continues to the upside or not is anyone's guess but this rally off the bottom seems to have started as a short cover rally, done by the hedgers/commercials to squeeze the large funds who added a large amount of shorts on the bottom (6/7-6/8). By the way, most of those new shorts haven't yet coughed up their positions. It now appears to have turned into actual demand for long positions, at least that's the impression I get from Thursday's data. Here are the links:

Euro to Weaken Until Europe Creates Monetary Fund

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=238356

and the resolution here in the words: permanent crisis mechanism

Operational Details Of The EMU Fin Stability Facility

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=240563
  • #257,103
  • Jun 12, 2010 12:54pm Jun 12, 2010 12:54pm
As per my previous post, the EU tested my 50% level and retraced 100pips just to crawl back slowly till market close. If you look on xe.com you will see that price has fallen 47 pips to reflect a value of 1.20610. This retracement has run its course IMO and bear movement will resume again now with a few stops along the way. I cannot personaly see why this will break the 1.2150 mark.
  • #257,104
  • Jun 12, 2010 1:00pm Jun 12, 2010 1:00pm
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle7148555.ece

Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites

“The Saudis have given their permission for the Israelis to pass over and they will look the other way,” said a US defence source in the area. “They have already done tests to make sure their own jets aren’t scrambled and no one gets shot down. This has all been done with the agreement of the [US] State Department.”
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #257,105
  • Jun 12, 2010 1:11pm Jun 12, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting CharlesSA
I cannot personaly see why this will break the 1.2150 mark.
Remember 6-7 months ago when the USD was at his low... everybody was bearish on the dollar ! And now it is the samething for the Euro... it doesnt mean the Euro is a good fundamental currency, but the USD is not in a better shape. You always have to remember that. So, a technical rally at this moment on the upside is possible even if the Euro is going to disappear one day.

Nothing go straight up or straight down... it's time for the euro to have a rally.

Just my 2 cents
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #257,106
  • Jun 12, 2010 1:19pm Jun 12, 2010 1:19pm
Quoting DMA Trader
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle7148555.ece

Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites

“The Saudis have given their permission for the Israelis to pass over and they will look the other way,” said a US defence source in the area. “They have already done tests to make sure their own jets aren’t scrambled and no one gets shot down. This has all been done with the agreement of the [US] State Department.”
Good news , there are traitors everywhere in every century perhaps in this world , how the world to move with.
anyway , the winter may not end in just one month.
No politics just a jerk reaction , automated.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #257,107
  • Jun 12, 2010 1:25pm Jun 12, 2010 1:25pm
Quoting fontu
Good news
Ditto! I hope you're having a good weekend people.

take care Fontu
  • #257,108
  • Jun 12, 2010 1:29pm Jun 12, 2010 1:29pm
  •  Now
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: 'I should have taken the money' | 654 Posts
Quoting DMA Trader
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle7148555.ece

Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites

“The Saudis have given their permission for the Israelis to pass over and they will look the other way,” said a US defence source in the area. “They have already done tests to make sure their own jets aren’t scrambled and no one gets shot down. This has all been done with the agreement of the [US] State Department.”
Serious stuff.
Being right is one, taking it from the table is two.
  • #257,109
  • Jun 12, 2010 1:30pm Jun 12, 2010 1:30pm
Quoting CharlesSA
If you look on xe.com you will see that price has fallen 47 pips to reflect a value of 1.20610.
These weekend prices at xe.com are just a joke. The real price sits still at 1.2109. It couldn't be the other way because markets are closed.
  • #257,110
  • Jun 12, 2010 1:37pm Jun 12, 2010 1:37pm
  •  Now
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: 'I should have taken the money' | 654 Posts
Quoting Naseri13
the reversal wasn't that violent as I have expected but should've provided some more time for the consolidation phase before the decisive reversal in trend: eur/chf, eur/gbp, eur/jpy crosses are behaving very bullish and cross flows show what's in it to come.
G/j is also bullish.

I will Buy E/J AND EU again next week.
Not a reverasal yet, more consolidation to my opinion, reversal/correction/ or more downside still to follow.
Being right is one, taking it from the table is two.
  • #257,111
  • Jun 12, 2010 1:38pm Jun 12, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting uraceulose
Ditto! I hope you're having a good weekend people.

take care Fontu
Thanks , hope for the same for you too. For every action there is an equal & opposite reaction, if not they will accumulate to burst in time & something good to this world may happen & so instantly come in mind it a good news .
let anything happen , do not bother anything can spoil the weekend peace .Time to ready for next week -
Looking the heavy short positions in eur,pound & jpy in the COT ( massive sell off at 1.2124?? )
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1115856520100611
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #257,112
  • Jun 12, 2010 1:51pm Jun 12, 2010 1:51pm
4hr with a couple of fibs taken off of total move of May and june so far and last two weeks. The two 50 percent lines are really all I'm concerned with for now. Just watching to see.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr fib delete.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #257,113
  • Jun 12, 2010 2:02pm Jun 12, 2010 2:02pm
So, let's assume this is a well known widely regarded level of resistance, 1.2150ish. Price did approach here twice, in Asian session on Friday and pre-US session, with low volume I imagine. I don't see any major news for Monday, really nothing crazy till Wednesday with some US numbers.

Is stop hunting at 1.2150 a possibility, because if they can get it there and through, they can sell all they have to everyone higher?

I'm long, but nervous about it. Honestly, it was the only position I got into on Friday afternoon that worked... so I held it.

So, under the assumption that the market will do what causes the most pain to the largest group, is it crazy to think they won't run 1.2150?
  • #257,114
  • Jun 12, 2010 2:07pm Jun 12, 2010 2:07pm
They will and they won't stop there.
  • #257,115
  • Jun 12, 2010 2:08pm Jun 12, 2010 2:08pm
Not from me but it's worth a look:

http://img704.imageshack.us/img704/8893/image74a.png
  • #257,116
  • Jun 12, 2010 2:21pm Jun 12, 2010 2:21pm
Quoting Xaron
They will and they won't stop there.
They "could" and they "would" not stop there.

Nothing for sure but death and taxes, keep an open mind...
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #257,117
  • Jun 12, 2010 2:35pm Jun 12, 2010 2:35pm
It's an ugly inverse H&S, but it is a possibility.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ugly.jpg Size: 158 KB
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #257,118
  • Jun 12, 2010 2:46pm Jun 12, 2010 2:46pm
  •  Now
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: 'I should have taken the money' | 654 Posts
Quoting tonyo524
It's an ugly inverse H&S, but it is a possibility.
On one thing we can all agree, it went to fast and to deep in a to short timeframe. +3000 pips in under 6 months without any correction.
Being right is one, taking it from the table is two.
  • #257,119
  • Jun 12, 2010 2:53pm Jun 12, 2010 2:53pm
Quoting tonyo524
It's an ugly inverse H&S, but it is a possibility.
Look also at usdchf H4 and D1 (this has always given me useful hints when eurusd was unclear to analyze) there is an even nicer H&S (complex H&S) and USDCHF on the higher timeframes looks really short to me at the moment.

I would not be surprised to see the Euro going further up for many hundreds of pips.
  • #257,120
  • Jun 12, 2010 3:07pm Jun 12, 2010 3:07pm
Quoting 7bit
Look also at usdchf H4 and D1 (this has always given me useful hints when eurusd was unclear to analyze) there is an even nicer H&S (complex H&S) and USDCHF on the higher timeframes looks really short to me at the moment.

I would not be surprised to see the Euro going further up for many hundreds of pips.
I see it as presenting a possible long opportunity.
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