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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #5,701
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:22am Jun 11, 2010 2:22am
Quoting niteshift02
Hi g_j, hi everyone

I would tend to agree. Although I'm still learning, my understanding is that a trendline should have a minimum of 3 points/touches to make it valid, which the lower TL does in your case. However, on a valid triangle, there is the opinion that one side can have 2 touches as long as the other has 3, so now this becomes a matter of interpretation.

With your TLs, the lower TL is broken, so maybe we class this as a 'false break', and in the end it is a valid false break as price broke through the upper TL.

Anyone care...
hi. for me i am happy with 2 touch's on these small TFs and happily take the break.3 touch's on both borders doesnt happen very often. of course it is better to take the 1st third touch (as per Igrok shows) in the anticipation of a break which gives a little room to manuver when/if price does reach the other border and you want to stay in the trade. on higher TFs i would be a little more cautious.
the false break you mentioned i think is a little strong in this case, price only broke by a few pips which would'nt be enough to bring any significant volume into the trade imo. Remember on these short TFs a few pips can mean 1 single order non related to TA. I think this was just natural price movement??

hope this helps?
back to thread...

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #5,702
  • Edited 7:35am Jun 11, 2010 3:23am | Edited 7:35am
A possible #18.1 scenario on cable at the moment, lets see how it will paly out after the major news...
  • #5,703
  • Jun 11, 2010 3:30am Jun 11, 2010 3:30am
Quoting PutaMadre
A possible #18.1 scenario on cable at the moment, lets see how it will paly out after the major news...
We had #20.6 with divs. Broken down couple of moments ago. I am staying aside though.
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #5,704
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:06am Jun 11, 2010 4:06am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hi. for me i am happy with 2 touch's on these small TFs and happily take the break.3 touch's on both borders doesnt happen very often. of course it is better to take the 1st third touch (as per Igrok shows) in the anticipation of a break which gives a little room to manuver when/if price does reach the other border and you want to stay in the trade. on higher TFs i would be a little more cautious.
the false break you mentioned i think is a little strong in this case, price only broke by a few pips which would'nt be enough to bring any significant...

Hi gj,

Yes, I think taking into account it was a lower timeframe, what you say makes sense. However, I hate my neat little TLs being disrupted

In any case I'm still learning what is best for certain triangle situations, #19.9 or #19.10, the problem being that if my TL gets broken I don't want to miss on what could be a potential breakout when it's too late. Still learning though. For me #19.10 is perhaps the safest of the two options so far (good R:R), as I have been victim to false break outs before and they can be quite fraustrating. I guess time and experiance will give me the ability to judge triangles better.

Thanks for you view on this, everybody's perspective is helpful when they've been in the game longer.
  • #5,705
  • Jun 11, 2010 5:03am Jun 11, 2010 5:03am
This was the eventual demise of the broadening triangle/possible diamond I posted yesterday:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp possible diamond.gif Size: 20 KB


I believe the sequence in the right side of the diamond was wrong, 2 touches on lower right TL before price moved up to upper right TL. Would this invalidate the diamond? The correct sequence should be down, up, down, up etc.

As you can see, the price broke free from the diamond downwards, but then moved up. Would I be correct in believing that incorrect sequence inside of diamond can indicate future PA not going as planned?

Luckily I didn't play this diamond, ideally I would've wanted to enter at the bounce off the upper right TL, but I was asleep....
  • #5,706
  • Jun 11, 2010 5:08am Jun 11, 2010 5:08am
Quoting niteshift02
This was the eventual demise of the broadening triangle/possible diamond I posted yesterday:

I believe the sequence in the right side of the diamond was wrong, 2 touches on lower right TL before price moved up to upper right TL. Would this invalidate the diamond? The correct sequence should be down, up, down, up etc.

As you can see, the price broke free from the diamond downwards, but then moved up. Would I be correct in believing that incorrect sequence inside of diamond can indicate future PA not going as planned?...
You're right saying that the sequence of the moves can indicate future PA. It simply shows that there might be something else forming.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp possible diamond.gif Size: 22 KB
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #5,707
  • Jun 11, 2010 7:35am Jun 11, 2010 7:35am
Quoting PutaMadre
A possible #18.1 scenario on cable at the moment, lets see how it will paly out after the major news...
First target at ADR reatched..My quess it cuold work on EU now just tempalte wuold be shifted in time more forward...
  • #5,708
  • Jun 11, 2010 10:07am Jun 11, 2010 10:07am
Quoting Mr.C
You're right saying that the sequence of the moves can indicate future PA. It simply shows that there might be something else forming.
Yes of course. By the way Mr.C, love your thread, your clean and simple charting changed the way I do my charts forever. Learned so much from looking at your past examples
  • #5,709
  • Jun 11, 2010 10:34am Jun 11, 2010 10:34am
Quoting niteshift02
Yes of course. By the way Mr.C, love your thread, your clean and simple charting changed the way I do my charts forever. Learned so much from looking at your past examples
Glad to hear that. Good luck in your learning journey. If you're here - you're on the right path.
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #5,710
  • Jun 11, 2010 10:42am Jun 11, 2010 10:42am
This was probably the trade of the day.

Nice Ascending TL with MACD div.

MACD target almost reached.

Geppy had a similar trade too.

Cheers,

JP.
  • #5,711
  • Jun 11, 2010 12:02pm Jun 11, 2010 12:02pm
Hey guys, would the trendline I've drawn on the MACD below for price projection be valid, or does it become invalidated because the blue and red lines go under the 'waterline'? It appears if we did use this for profit target, it was successful, however earlier posts on here say this is not valid:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp macd div.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #5,712
  • Jun 11, 2010 1:14pm Jun 11, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting niteshift02
Hey guys, would the trendline I've drawn on the MACD below for price projection be valid, or does it become invalidated because the blue and red lines go under the 'waterline'? It appears if we did use this for profit target, it was successful, however earlier posts on here say this is not valid:

Attachment
Having checked this on the 30min timeframe as opposed to the one I've posted before, I think I've found one way of resolving the issue:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp macd div 30min.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #5,713
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:11pm Jun 11, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting niteshift02
Having checked this on the 30min timeframe as opposed to the one I've posted before, I think I've found one way of resolving the issue:

Attachment
That was the target I was talking about earlier.

Perfect trade. Trade of the day.

Also, if you check, there was an ascending TL broken (4 touches). Now there was the descending Tl just broken as well. Another bull div observed on m5. Target ~1.4592. Bad timing for the long though... ;-)

Cheers.
  • #5,714
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:03pm Jun 11, 2010 4:03pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
That was the target I was talking about earlier.

Perfect trade. Trade of the day.

Also, if you check, there was an ascending TL broken (4 touches). Now there was the descending Tl just broken as well. Another bull div observed on m5. Target ~1.4592. Bad timing for the long though... ;-)

Cheers.

Is this what you mean?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp macd div 5min.gif Size: 16 KB


Yeah, difficult to find a clear timing to enter the trade. Anyway, better trades around the corner. Have a good weekend all
  • #5,715
  • Jun 11, 2010 7:50pm Jun 11, 2010 7:50pm
Quoting niteshift02
Is this what you mean?

Attachment

Yeah, difficult to find a clear timing to enter the trade. Anyway, better trades around the corner. Have a good weekend all
Ok. Here you go:

Trade #1: Short @ ascending TLs 4th touch. Bearish Divergence as seen on m30. USDx on the rise. Still a lot to go to ADR. So a lot of momentum.

Trade #2: Long @ descending TL all the way down from todays high. m5 bullish divergence. Could of have taken this trade as well. Not the best timing but a counter trend move after ADR is met is sometimes good especially a few hours before NY close. Also when div. target is not too far like this one.
Would have placed SL below todays low.

Here is a chart containing both trades.

I hope this clarifies the WONDERFUL short trade it was and the possible trade (long).

Best,

JP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_usd_m30_11_06_2010_tl_div_break.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #5,716
  • Jun 12, 2010 3:41am Jun 12, 2010 3:41am
GJ h4 triangle along with h4 +ve div. 1 side with 3 touches, while 1 side with 2 touches
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 01 12-Jun-10.jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #5,717
  • Jun 12, 2010 5:10am Jun 12, 2010 5:10am
Quoting jupiter_peak
Ok. Here you go:

Here is a chart containing both trades.

I hope this clarifies the WONDERFUL short trade it was and the possible trade (long).

Best,

JP.

That's excellent. Really helps me see the 'bigger' picture. MACD divs are excellent for confirming high probability trades. Thanks for your help JP, very much appreciated
  • #5,718
  • Jun 12, 2010 11:26am Jun 12, 2010 11:26am
Quoting mphpopular
GJ h4 triangle along with h4 +ve div. 1 side with 3 touches, while 1 side with 2 touches
Hi mph,

I'm still trying to learn about MACD divs, etc. From your last chart, and the +ve you pointed out, am I right in saying that we expect price to hit the lower triangle TL, bounce up and break out towards a target of around 136.30 to 40?

Bearing in mind that the daily chart shows price moving up and down in a descending channel, and price having bounced off this daily lower TL, it would seem logical for future PA to carry on up towards the upper daily TL. So possible good longer term trade? Of course sometimes logic disappears in this game
Love your blog journal by the way, very inspiring

Peace,
Niteshift
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 1day.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #5,719
  • Jun 12, 2010 10:16pm Jun 12, 2010 10:16pm
Quoting niteshift02
Hi mph,

I'm still trying to learn ..................
It is the most ideal case for me if the price hit the triangle lower TL and play it out as #19.10 with SL of 20pips instead of #19.9 on later time.

My target as indicated in chart is 140.55
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 13-Jun-10.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #5,720
  • Jun 13, 2010 1:51am Jun 13, 2010 1:51am
Quoting mphpopular
It is the most ideal case for me if the price hit the triangle lower TL and play it out as #19.10 with SL of 20pips instead of #19.9 on later time.

My target as indicated in chart is 140.55

It could also be seen as a 20.1 if the lower border fails. (my favourite )

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
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