Sonic R. System

Yes, I believe the bigger picture leans towards movement down, which I posted last week, I think. But, in the immediate sense, and H4 is good to look at here, PA has not yet pulled back up to test 'support turned resistance'....the red lined area. This area is TP1 in my trade. TP2 is another 100 pips up, just in case of a greedy overshoot by the Speculators grabbing for high shorts before the drop.

It is hard to imagine that the Speculators, faced with the specter of a fine drop, would not go to work and pump it up first, so they could build a short position at higher prices. But, as always, be warned that this is all speculative.

Look at attached M15, in which the current range is boxed. A break up will put PA in the next range up of equal height....and it is easy to see a likely target being revealed. This target is actually mid-way between my two TPs (which are subject to revision now - I might lower TP2 to this half number). If today closes around the nearby half number, then tomorrow the average range will take it exactly to this half number target, 200 pips up, if we get that move up! And if we get that move up, and we see high NVO as PA approaches the target, then we will surely know the Speculators/profs/price manipulators are unloading longs and adding shorts. That is just my opinion, anyway.

As a reminder of Sonicdeejay's wisdom about trading approved hours, when trading activity is high and NVO is most reliable, consider this. Right now, where late in the US session there are not a lot of traders, it is easy for Speculators to manipulate price. Suppose they want to go long below 1.1930 but the price is over 1.1950. It is a simple matter for them to put in a single (yes, single) order for a whopping size below the 1.1930 price. Having done that, all they need to do is to sell the price down to that level, taking out all intervening buy orders....even if they have to buy their own sell orders back thru another account if nobody else is buying, just to keep the drop in progress. But, once these manipulators get the price down to where their huge buy order sits, it fills, helping them add to the long position being built, a position large compared to the amount of selling necessary to get the price down. But, when you look at NVO, you see little activity, both down and at the bottom, because NVO is trade count only and ignores the size of each trade. So you take no notice except of the price moving down! And, if that encourages someone to go short, I am sure the manipulators will absolutely love it, as it increases liquidity for their buy order!!!!! ....as does the triggering of SLs on the long trades of others!

Probably you are right! you are more experienced that i am! BTW, how many years you had beed trading?

I may be right. I may be wrong. Many a time I have 'analyzed' and then 'over analyzed'.....just to miss one or more good trades in the other direction, or worse, to end up on the wrong side of a trade and have to wait quite some time to return to 'break even', or to minimize loss.

This is why I like the SonicR method....in the midst of 'being certain' of the schemes of the Speculators, I can always clear the chart and simply look at "....what the market is deciding."

Sometimes I wonder if I have had almost ten years of experience......
.....or one year of experience almost ten times!

Edit: Add chart.....wouldn't you know it would form a setup again in "off hours"! The nice thing about the L-H sequence here is the spacing.

Yeah, I was very optimistic about E/U trade too and thought it will rally
for 200 pips in a matter of hours to retest traderathome's marked Resistance.
There was an attempt to push up at previous High, but failed. It just reminds
me that I always have to keep somewhere in the back of my mind, that E/U
is in the bear market. Also, if you are believer in trendlines...
However, the pair did not make new significant LL, so anything is possible.

Whait is your feedback from this strategy, guys? Has anyone achieved something with it? Would be great to share your experiance...

To share our collective experience, simply read each and every post. Steadfast contributors to the pure method are Sonicdeejay, and some others alphabetically: Basber, DanPa, ddaytrader, Domas4 and Muhammed989. (I apologize if I left someone out).

...and traderathome!

COME ON CLAP IT............HAHAHAHA

Yes indeedy, CLAP IT! And, just as long as PA obeys the TL and we see the professional traders of each sub-session manipulating for the lows,


......... I feel .........

that this is going higher!

Seriously, for two entire days PA has been confined to a range of only a bit over 100 pips, about half the previous daily average! Now, not only the Dragon, but also our Trend Line (yellow) is sideways. And thru this time it has been the lows, not the highs, that have garnered the most visible trading activity. This is not to say that professional trading outfits won't use their money to drive PA down again (selling to insignificant intervening buyers), for the purpose of getting their own larger, preset buy orders filled at a target lows. This is to say the longer it ranges in this manner, the stronger the breakout run is likely to be. And the increased trading activity we see at the lows indicates to me position building for a run up.

Just my...feelings!

EU Watch, Long Trade Update:

London trading has just opened. A short while earlier there was another drive to the lows with increased trading, followed by another run up and out of the Dragon. London opened in the midst of a pullback from this run. Now it is time to watch the retrace continued by the London traders, and wonder if this is finally the last one!

Hello,

I know this question has most likely been covered before so please forgive for asking because I couldn't find the answer to it anywhere.

Is there a preferred period for the NVO or how does one decide period to use for specific timeframe ie the 15 min. I've noticed that the 768 period is used usually but I've seen others used as well. I just wanted to wrap my head around this so I can utilize this tool properly.

Thanks in advance

You're welcome ... It's useful to traders who are trading with non-mt4 platfroms. when one is trading with mt4 platforms, they are some easier indis that could do this ...

Regards,
Basber

waiting for GY and EY as well..

and GJ

and EJ

EU Watch, Long Trade Update:

I have moved the SL to just below the last consolidation area.....

The original NVO code by Vadim Shumiloff is set to a period of 10. That setting was used frequently after NVO first started to be used on this thread. But time and experience has brought some changes. So now you will frequently see the periods of 20 and even 768 being used. Why?

When NVO suddenly starts to show high relative activity, how significant is it? Experience has shown that a period of 10 can suddenly produce "high activity" histogram bars when in fact the actual level is still quite low relative to the peaks and valleys thru a whole day. The more the period is increased, the more activity it takes to produce "high" relative activity histogram bars.

A period of 768 is the number of M15 TFs over 8 days, which is a somewhat arbitrary period, but long enough to insure that a "high" relative activity histogram bar is indeed the product of high activity. On slow days, or during slow parts/sessions of a day, a period of 20 might show high relative activity bars whereas a period of 768 may not.

So, what period should be used? That is an individual decision for each trader to make. Experiment and decide for yourself, now knowing that the larger the period, the more activity it will take to trigger the "high" bars.

Personally, overall I prefer the 768 when on the M15 chart, but will sometimes use 20. The 768 can do the same thing as the 20....you just have to look for 'least negative bars' sometimes. On an M5 or M1 chart, when trying to discern if traders are courting the lows or the highs, I frequently prefer the period 20.

I have had the thought of modifying the latest NVO I use to allow user input of different periods for different TFs, so the period will automatically change when you change chart TFs. But I am not sure if, or when, I might actually get to it.

nice thread guys

EU Watch, Long Trade Update:

Trade was stopped out with 78 pips profit. I have re-entered (not a SonicR re-entry) 55 pips lower on an Asian session dive (first chart).

The M30 chart (second chart) shows PA now has been ranging more than 3 full sessions; now into the fourth session. Either the professional institutional traders are still not sure which way it should be driven, or they have not had enough time to build their positions in advance of the move. I vote for the latter. Three days may not be enough time, but if this drags out much longer I am going to start believing liquidity is down and they are having a hard time inducing traders to take the opposite side of the positions they want to build....which could lead to a drastic whipsaw, first moving in the wrong direction. WARNING: Speculation.

Anyway, I am still bullish, have re-entered long, and am keeping a watch on it. Because I consider the possibility of whipsawing real, my SL will be mental for the time being.

yesterday i bagged most of the positions for +340 pips combined! kept a small position for each, because of the relative trend and because of TAH's posts (lol)