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EURUSD

  • #255,201
  • Jun 8, 2010 4:15pm Jun 8, 2010 4:15pm
Quoting trade price
range means get ready for the next ride.
its a clue.
all my system is based on trends.
don't have a lot of tools for ranges.
don't trade them. just wait.

bad thing is i always think it will break now.
every time gets closer to support/resistance
anyway prices in the last few years were trending nice so i just take a pause now when i see ranges.

i still would like to have something for ranges.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #255,202
  • Jun 8, 2010 4:27pm Jun 8, 2010 4:27pm
Quoting DMA Trader
i am exactly the opposite

i hate ranges from the bottom of my heart
I couldn't agree more
Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
  • #255,203
  • Jun 8, 2010 4:28pm Jun 8, 2010 4:28pm
JPM Ridicules SNB Intervention, Tells Clients To Short EURCHF With 1.25 Target

We would need to check my records a little more careful but we suspect the SNB has set a new world record with its FX intervention in May. Data released by the Swiss Statistics Office and confirmed to us by the SNB puts intervention at CHF 78.8bn in May (yes, that is the change of reserves, not their level). To put this into perspective, this is nearly three times the previous largest monthly intervention and amounts to 15% of GDP in just one month. Current reserves are now CHF 232bn or 43% of GDP.
We knew the SNB intervened in heroic quantities to defend the 1.40 level but this figure is way beyond even the most extreme estimates. It is in fact just plain silly, and confirms an FX policy that: 1) has run out of control; and 2) is even more unsustainable than thought. And even should the SNB be reckless enough to want to repeat intervention on this scale, we can be pretty certain that it will only do so on a liquidity-sterilised basis. There is simply no way the SNB is going to conduct unsterilised intervention on this magnitude and very quickly lose complete control of domestic money supply. The fact that EUR/CHF has declined by 10% even though the SNB has sold nearly CHF 190bn, or 35% of GDP, since the spring of last year, is a clear a demonstration that sterilised intervention, for this is what the SNB has done, simply does not work. It is a con-trick, one which the market is learning to look through.
This data should embolden the market to re-sell EUR/CHF. Many positions were squeezed out in the stop-fest up to 1.45, leaving positions an awful lot cleaner than for some time. We re-sold EUR/CHF in the latest FX Weekly and suspect that now is the time to think about more extreme targets than the rolling 2-3% per quarter depreciation seen over the past year. One-touches in the mid-low 1.20's over the coming year are starting to look a good prospect. We are therefore opening a 1Y EUR/CHF 1.2500 at-expiry digital put, priced at 13% off a 1.3870 spot.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #255,204
  • Jun 8, 2010 4:34pm Jun 8, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting trade price
i dont know what...
that's how I begin to accept ranges. it's like a well deserved pause.

i trade from swing to position.
so not really intro intra day . where a lot of ranges might take place.

markets are to fast now to stay to long in ranges.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #255,205
  • Jun 8, 2010 4:36pm Jun 8, 2010 4:36pm
Quoting DMA Trader
JPM Ridicules SNB Intervention, Tells Clients To Short EURCHF With 1.25 Target

We would need to check my records a little more careful but we suspect the SNB has set a new world record with its FX intervention in May. Data released by the Swiss Statistics Office and confirmed to us by the SNB puts intervention at CHF 78.8bn in May (yes, that is the change of reserves, not their level). To put this into perspective, this is nearly three times the previous largest monthly intervention and amounts to 15% of GDP in just one month. Current reserves...

this is kind crazy.....it sounds as if jpm is calling snb out
  • #255,206
  • Jun 8, 2010 4:36pm Jun 8, 2010 4:36pm
in the next days we should see 1.21 as a retrace :-)
Pecunia non olet
  • #255,207
  • Jun 8, 2010 4:38pm Jun 8, 2010 4:38pm
Quoting mfoste1
this is kind crazy.....it sounds as if jpm is calling snb out
I wouldn't agree with JPM here tbh. I hope they aren't serious about their trade, for their own sake
  • #255,208
  • Jun 8, 2010 4:45pm Jun 8, 2010 4:45pm
Pivots from 5pm EST...

Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #255,209
  • Jun 8, 2010 4:47pm Jun 8, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting Masrim
I wouldn't agree with JPM here tbh. I hope they aren't serious about their trade, for their own sake
well whoever it was, someone dumped big on the spike it went right back to the same level. I wouldnt be surprised if it was jpm, ubs
  • #255,210
  • Jun 8, 2010 4:48pm Jun 8, 2010 4:48pm
Let me guess, take on SNB ... call them on their BS.

-Following a page out of the Buffet rule book of investing.
  • #255,211
  • Jun 8, 2010 4:50pm Jun 8, 2010 4:50pm
The ratio of buyers to sellers for the EURUSD is 1.35

This signifies that there are 1.35 buyers for every 1 seller.

Retail positioning is a contrarian indicator so further downside is expected.
http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/i...20100608145005
  • #255,212
  • Edited 5:38pm Jun 8, 2010 5:00pm | Edited 5:38pm
Quoting mfoste1
this is kind crazy.....it sounds as if jpm is calling snb out
Thats wiered JPM attitude
SNB Intervention should signal the start of Bull trend in my view
  • #255,213
  • Jun 8, 2010 5:03pm Jun 8, 2010 5:03pm
Quoting charron
Thats wiered JNB attitude
SNB Intervention should signal the start of Bull trend in my view
It just doesn't make much sense, as the euro is quite oversold on all fronts atm and I believe a big bounce is imminent. If I were to go long CHF I'd do it through short USD/CHF.
  • #255,214
  • Jun 8, 2010 5:08pm Jun 8, 2010 5:08pm
64 to 58 area last area of S/R untill 20 to 25 area
(this area will likely hold untill asia open)

ranges are ok just have to get your mind in to them
1. only take range trades with greater trend
as 85% of the time trend will come back
2. so look for break outs
ie. I will close off 1/2 of my lots at 27
the others I will look for a break out or reversal

cheers

teb
  • #255,215
  • Jun 8, 2010 5:11pm Jun 8, 2010 5:11pm
Quoting TEB63
64 to 58 area last area of S/R untill 20 to 25 area
(this area will likely hold untill asia open)

ranges are ok just have to get your mind in to them
1. only take range trades with greater trend
as 85% of the time trend will come back
2. so look for break outs
ie. I will close off 1/2 of my lots at 27
the others I will look for a break out or reversal

cheers

teb
so you only short EUR/USD near 1.98 - 1.2 range 1h.
because of the overall downtrend
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #255,216
  • Jun 8, 2010 5:22pm Jun 8, 2010 5:22pm
Quoting DMA Trader
so you only short EUR/USD near 1.98 - 1.2 range 1h.
because of the overall downtrend

yep 93 to 96 area
and more
in the 73 to 75 area

once we break below 56 area
I think we may have a big move
i think it will happen about
.... 7:45 lol

teb
  • #255,217
  • Jun 8, 2010 5:22pm Jun 8, 2010 5:22pm
Quoting uraceulose
If anyone's interested...I've gotten a couple PMs asking how to calculate S/R. no biggie but I figured I'd just post it here too for anyone else that didn't have it typed up.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE CALCULATION

HIGH POINT = YESTERDAYS HIGH
PIVOT PRICE = YESTERDAYS MID PRICE POINT
LOW POINT = YESTERDAYS LOW
R= RESISTANCE
S = SUPPORT
P = PIVOT

PIVOT = (HIGH POINT+LOW POINT+CLOSE POINT)/3

RANGE = HIGH POINT MINUS LOW POINT

1ST RESISTANCE: PIVOT + (PIVOT MINUS LOW)

2ND RESISTANCE: PIVOT + RANGE

3RD RESISTANCE: 1R + RANGE

1ST SUPPORT:...

Sehr nützliches POST ! ! ! Pivots mal ganz einfach und leicht gemacht - ohne irgendwelchen Firlefanz.

Schön
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #255,218
  • Jun 8, 2010 5:24pm Jun 8, 2010 5:24pm
Quoting DMA Trader
JPM Ridicules SNB Intervention, Tells Clients To Short EURCHF With 1.25 Target

We re-sold EUR/CHF in the latest FX Weekly and suspect that now is the time to think about more extreme targets than the rolling 2-3% per quarter depreciation seen over the past year. One-touches in the mid-low 1.20's over the coming year are starting to look a good prospect. We are therefore opening a 1Y EUR/CHF 1.2500 at-expiry digital put, priced at 13% off a 1.3870 spot.
Right short EURCHF now and TP at 1.43 later (SNB can pump 400-500 pips in just 1 hour).. You gotta wait for pop
and then short.. When all those insance targets flying in the air,
usually means it's a bottom or near..
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  • #255,219
  • Jun 8, 2010 5:30pm Jun 8, 2010 5:30pm
Why euro not going outfrom 1.19 zone?
Its seems very horrable..
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #255,220
  • Jun 8, 2010 5:33pm Jun 8, 2010 5:33pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Right short EURCHF now and TP at 1.43 later (SNB can pump 400-500 pips in just 1 hour).. You gotta wait for pop
and then short.. When all those insance targets flying in the air,
usually means it's a bottom or near..
They may be right but the timing is very strange.
Anyway I'm not into going against SNB.
There are better trades for me.

but is strange for JPM to give such a recommendation
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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