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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,941
  • Jun 4, 2010 9:11am Jun 4, 2010 9:11am
Quoting fxrambo
hi sir
hpw do i get the mtf macd that r exactly as on ua chart especially the bottom one
See post 22920.
As far as I test it. The method works only in strong trend (angle of M15, H1 MA's near or above 45 degree)
  • #22,942
  • Jun 4, 2010 9:37am Jun 4, 2010 9:37am
The sell off of ???USD pairs starts way before the scheduled NFP announcement time.

Is it insider's job or just profit taking ?

After NFP, congestion formed, it does not seem to me that maket has found its direction.
  • #22,943
  • Jun 4, 2010 9:55am Jun 4, 2010 9:55am
Quoting davidwu61
The sell off of ???USD pairs starts way before the scheduled NFP announcement time.

Is it insider's job or just profit taking ?

After NFP, congestion formed, it does not seem to me that maket has found its direction.
It was released earlier that the NFP would be better than usual because of the increase in jobs, albeit temporary, due to census work employment. That's why the markets moved early.
Gone to a better place
  • #22,944
  • Jun 4, 2010 11:19am Jun 4, 2010 11:19am
Quoting smikester
It was released earlier that the NFP would be better than usual because of the increase in jobs, albeit temporary, due to census work employment. That's why the markets moved early.
smikester,

Thanks for the answer.

By the way;

Do we, the bloody retail trader, have access to this early release info and when shall we expect it ? I mean there is no clear price movement until asian close, the info shuld not be released before that.
  • #22,945
  • Jun 4, 2010 2:15pm Jun 4, 2010 2:15pm
Well it was released on Forex factory here: http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=239781 yesterday...

Another reason for the big moves today was the flight to safety from equities to currencies resulting in USD gains and JPY gains. Equity futures gave an indication that would happen today. This is going to sound like bragging (it's only my job) but I had market orders positioned in case of these moves and most professionals would have, and those market orders avalanche the move, especially if it is a Friday reversal when traders would be closing their bullish trades for the weekend. For example, cable posted a daily inside bar yesterday, but it was a bearish one.
Gone to a better place
  • #22,946
  • Jun 4, 2010 5:11pm Jun 4, 2010 5:11pm
Quoting smikester
Well it was released on Forex factory here: http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=239781 yesterday...

.
smikester,

>"Another reason for the big moves today was the flight to safety from >equities to currencies resulting in USD gains and JPY gains. Equity futures >gave an indication that would happen today.

This sounds more like the real reason to me for the big moves.

Traders were expecting a signal (from NFP) that a more stable global economy is coming; big fish took advantage of the expectation and staged a false Euro currencies rebound for the last few days and made a kill in the last minute.

The NFP report is not really good Today as not enough jobs were created in the private sector.

>"This is going to sound like bragging (it's only my job) but I had market >orders positioned in case of these moves and most professionals would >have, and those market orders avalanche the move, especially if it is a >Friday reversal when traders would be closing their bullish trades for the >weekend. For example, cable posted a daily inside bar yesterday, but it >was a bearish one."

Congratulation,

Hopefully, you would be able to show us an example somedays about how you determine, for similar occasion, the locations for a market order entry, profit target and stop loss.

Thanks

David
  • #22,947
  • Jun 4, 2010 8:22pm Jun 4, 2010 8:22pm
Quoting ashes
@Silverfox
good analysis, I didn't see that one on my gmt+2 mt4. it would have been a great trade

@Xeneric
I agree on the rumors. no real rhythm and makets getting squeezed in.
a lot of anxiety since yesterday gmt evening when the market slowed down a lot, expecting todays news.
Hi Ashes,

It might be just an coincidence that I got it right I am still learning hard to analyst the charts correctly. Hope to learn more from you
  • #22,948
  • Jun 4, 2010 8:31pm Jun 4, 2010 8:31pm
Hi All,

I got a question. When I look at the chart for EURJPY in weekly chart, it shows that price is currently sitting on the trendline support (in red). However, when I turn to H4, it shows that price has broken the trendline. Is my chart reflecting correctly? Or do I need to read the chart in a different manner?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY (Weekly).gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY (H4).gif Size: 14 KB
  • #22,949
  • Jun 5, 2010 7:03am Jun 5, 2010 7:03am
Quoting silverfox88
Hi All,

I got a question. When I look at the chart for EURJPY in weekly chart, it shows that price is currently sitting on the trendline support (in red). However, when I turn to H4, it shows that price has broken the trendline. Is my chart reflecting correctly? Or do I need to read the chart in a different manner?

think i face the same problem as u.. maybe someone can reply? but if u ask me, while trendlines are good but there is always some error, so maybe it's gd to see a clean break of the trendline or a retest before going in the direction.
  • #22,950
  • Jun 5, 2010 7:15am Jun 5, 2010 7:15am
Its the way MT4 draws the line. I dont know why it happens though.
  • #22,951
  • Jun 5, 2010 7:38am Jun 5, 2010 7:38am
Quoting yuan83
think i face the same problem as u.. maybe someone can reply? but if u ask me, while trendlines are good but there is always some error, so maybe it's gd to see a clean break of the trendline or a retest before going in the direction.
Hi Yuan83, Ted1983,

Both of you born in 1983? Thanks for your comments. I am not sure why this problem happen but out of the 6 pairs I monitor, this is the only pair having such problem.
  • #22,952
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:09am Jun 5, 2010 9:09am
Quoting silverfox88
Hi All,

I got a question. When I look at the chart for EURJPY in weekly chart, it shows that price is currently sitting on the trendline support (in red). However, when I turn to H4, it shows that price has broken the trendline. Is my chart reflecting correctly? Or do I need to read the chart in a different manner?
The weekly shows that trendline violated in three places recently (tails). The H4 is just showing this in more detail. None of the H4 violations are at a week ending.

This trendline is of limited use because we are not usually looking for a break of dynamic support in a down trend, although if we are short it's obviously good. Likely we would look for a break of dynamic resistance - ie an upper trendline. Unless I completely miss your intention and you are trading down and across a channel. In which case, where is your upper limit? I hope this helps.
Gone to a better place
  • #22,953
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:00pm Jun 5, 2010 9:00pm
Quoting smikester
The weekly shows that trendline violated in three places recently (tails). The H4 is just showing this in more detail. None of the H4 violations are at a week ending.

This trendline is of limited use because we are not usually looking for a break of dynamic support in a down trend, although if we are short it's obviously good. Likely we would look for a break of dynamic resistance - ie an upper trendline. Unless I completely miss your intention and you are trading down and across a channel. In which case, where is your upper limit? I hope this...
Hi Smikester,

Thank you for your explanation.

From my observation, the weekly downtrend line has act as an support for the downtrend. The daily has bounce off 21 and when turning to H4, it seems a new trend has just begin. The fact that MACD is below -45 in H4 is telling me that the price might go back to 21. I am just thinking if it indeed goes back to 21 and bounce off, there is a trading opportunity but will the target be at the weekly downtrend line since H4 show trendline violated.
  • #22,954
  • Jun 6, 2010 8:21am Jun 6, 2010 8:21am
Not a bad video for weekend!


http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2008...tanding-t.html


Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #22,955
  • Edited 6:18am Jun 7, 2010 5:00am | Edited 6:18am
maybe short possiblities at 18:00 gmt candle close for eu and gu and long for cad ... let's wait and see
won't trade uj inbetween 89 and 200, chf looks too unstable, aud may generate a short later
  • #22,956
  • Edited 11:31am Jun 8, 2010 3:28am | Edited 11:31am
preparing shorts on eu and aud for candle close in 30min

edit:
entered short all 1/2 risk because 3 trades simultaneously
eu @1,1927, r=75
aud @0,8145. r=77
gu @1,4433, r=95

I'd have wished that the price would not have made such moves in the last 30 min, but anyway still valid setups

edit:
gu has reached 0,5r, sl set to be

edit:
gu stopped out be

edit:
looks like eu and aud have been caught by incertainty. now all I can do is hope that the short move goes on before the sl's get hit

edit:
eu and aud sl hit
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4h 7.6.10.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud 4h 7.6.10.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 4h 7.6.10.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #22,957
  • Jun 8, 2010 4:21am Jun 8, 2010 4:21am
Quoting ashes
preparing shorts on eu and aud for candle close in 30min

edit:
entered short all 1/2 risk because 3 trades simultaneously
eu @1,1927, r=75
aud @0,8145. r=77
gu @1,4433, r=95

I'd have wished that the price would not have made such moves in the last 30 min, but anyway still valid setups

edit:
gu has reached 0,5r, sl set to be
Good trades. 1.2000 round number resistance on EU.
  • #22,958
  • Jun 8, 2010 9:09am Jun 8, 2010 9:09am
3 years and this thread is still going strong. Keep it up guys.

Wheres Phillip? He used to be very active here...
  • #22,959
  • Jun 8, 2010 11:31am Jun 8, 2010 11:31am
Quoting xeneric
Good trades. 1.2000 round number resistance on EU.
good maybe, but not profitable
  • #22,960
  • Jun 8, 2010 3:31pm Jun 8, 2010 3:31pm
I haven't posted in a while, just too busy but not too busy to trade. I just haven't had time to post. The first chart is the daily showing an evening star pattern with 2 dojis. When I see those I'm looking for short trades and then go to the 4 hr. On the 4 hr I look for momentum chandles like the one we saw today, the engulfing bearish candle (a TC none the less) which engulfed all the price action of this week. It was big and far away from the 8 ema. So I waited for a pull back and got in around 4420. I was expecting price to go down to 4300, but I was more careful than normal b/c this is the B wave on the Eliot wave and those can be tricky. Price seem to find some support around the 4400's, but I know it could not go too high because of the congestion that you'll see on the 1 hr chart...see the elipse. Anyway, all that work for 17 pips. Better than nothing I suppose
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 060810-part1.gif Size: 59 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 060810-part2.gif Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 060810-part3.gif Size: 61 KB
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