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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,921
  • Jun 3, 2010 1:50am Jun 3, 2010 1:50am
Quoting davidwu61
This is Phil's H4 MACD system, but I have combined MTF info into one M15 chart, as I explained in a previous post..

All moving averages and MACD for different time frames appear in one M15 chart.

Red dashed line ( M5 EMA 21)
Red line ( M15 EMA 21 aka M5 SMA 89)
Orange line ( H1 EMA 21 aka M15 SMA 89)
Gold line (H4 EMA 21 aka M60 SMA 89)
White line (Dayly EMA 21)

1st MACD : M15 MACD (5, 13, 6)
2nd MACD : H1 MACD (5, 13, 6)
3rd MACD : H4 MACD (5, 13, 6)

With this there is no need to switch back and forth between differnt time frames. Also,...
Thanks David. I will try it out.
  • #22,922
  • Edited 3:46am Jun 3, 2010 3:34am | Edited 3:46am
Quoting xeneric
I am taking the macd round top on UJ because of bounce off 200 and 365 and also top of channel.
I forgot that the Dow went up 225 points yesterday so everyone is risk seeking today. The Asian markets also went up a lot today. The European markets are also up.
  • #22,923
  • Jun 3, 2010 3:57am Jun 3, 2010 3:57am
Quoting xeneric
I am taking the macd round top on UJ because of bounce off 200 and 365 and also top of channel.

EDIT : Got stopped out.
Momentum seems to have slowed - just as I got stopped out. If UJ pulls back within the channel, I might give it another go.
  • #22,924
  • Jun 3, 2010 4:02am Jun 3, 2010 4:02am
Quoting xeneric
I forgot that the Dow went up 225 points yesterday so everyone is risk seeking today. The Asian markets also went up a lot today. The European markets are also up.
I wasn't sure about that H4 trade but 92 was an important level. It hardly hesitated, which was unusual. I'm wondering if the Japan fundamentals have taken hold (see news section - new PM).
Gone to a better place
  • #22,925
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:21am Jun 3, 2010 6:21am
we're facing a difficult market right now. the five pairs I trade don't show a clear rhythm. entries this week were in anticipation of a start of rhythm, but so far no start yet .
in any way I'd avoid trading ct's and concentrate on tc's only
  • #22,926
  • Jun 3, 2010 9:56am Jun 3, 2010 9:56am
I have made roughly 60 pips (demo) using M15 entry based on MACD H4.
The whole process took about 3 hr of time around the London open.
This is the first time I formally using my new chart layout, I may be just getting lucky.

Pairs traded last night: usdchf, chfjpy, eurjpy

The profit is: 15-20 pips (play it safe). 30 pips (aggressive trading)
Stop loss: 10 pips ( invisible to broker ) below M15 EMA 21.


I attached two charts below. The trades are between the two red vertical bars.

The general idea is looking for price action going against the H1 and H4 macd, then looking for entry near the M15 21 EMA (for the attached chart).

In first chart, H1 MACD is incosistent with H4, I took the trade anyway when M15 MACD agrees with H4. I took profit early. Lucky me, cause the price went against the trade for the rest of the day.


You can easily find similar entry condictions in the attached charts.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: macd1.gif Size: 32 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: macd2.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #22,927
  • Jun 3, 2010 1:06pm Jun 3, 2010 1:06pm
I see a set of near future entry possibilities on 4h charts:

gbpusd could bounce off 8ema to drop to 89sma
audusd could bounce off 8ema or 89sma to drop reaching lower tl, or even breaking it
usdcad could bounce off 8ema to reach 200sma


just to complete the analysis I also mention the other pairs that I watch:

eurusd is now at lower tl, not sure if it will offer us an entry after retrace to 8/21ema to then bounce off and break support. maybe check 1h chart
usdchf could prepare a long off 8/21ema, but it has shown a lot of uncertain movements lately
usdjpy could offer a bounce off 8ema, but since price is around 200sma too, I'd be careful


unfortunately tomorrow is nfp day, so if we enter we should make sure to be at least be before news
  • #22,928
  • Jun 3, 2010 2:43pm Jun 3, 2010 2:43pm
I am not sure what is wrong; but sometimes the MTF_MACD indicator used here could not show up-to-date info. It is better to switch among H4, H1, and M15 time frames the first time you load a new symbol into the chart to ensure correct MACD info.


Quoting davidwu61
This is Phil's H4 MACD system, but I have combined MTF info into one M15 chart, as I explained in a previous post..

All moving averages and MACD for different time frames appear in one M15 chart.

Red dashed line ( M5 EMA 21)
Red line ( M15 EMA 21 aka M5 SMA 89)
Orange line ( H1 EMA 21 aka M15 SMA 89)
Gold line (H4 EMA 21 aka M60 SMA 89)
White line (Dayly EMA 21)

1st MACD : M15 MACD (5, 13, 6)
2nd MACD : H1 MACD (5, 13, 6)
3rd MACD : H4 MACD (5, 13, 6)

With this there is no need to switch back and forth between differnt time frames. Also,...
  • #22,929
  • Edited Jun 4, 2010 6:03am Jun 3, 2010 4:02pm | Edited Jun 4, 2010 6:03am
shorting cad @1,0395, r=80=sl=tp(on 200sma)

price has bounced off 21ema on downmove and closed below 8ema
around the 200 sma it had bounced off and now may come back to it

edit:
price has gone sw for the last hours, so in expectation of nfp I have reduced sl to 35 pips.
I might just take whatever profits I've got, if any, before cad news and nfp

edit:
price made it 10 pips before +0,5r, setting sl to be.

edit:
sl hit, trade closed be
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad 4h 3.6.10.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #22,930
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:03pm Jun 3, 2010 6:03pm
Quoting ashes
I see a set of near future entry possibilities on 4h charts:

gbpusd could bounce off 8ema to drop to 89sma
audusd could bounce off 8ema or 89sma to drop reaching lower tl, or even breaking it
usdcad could bounce off 8ema to reach 200sma


just to complete the analysis I also mention the other pairs that I watch:

eurusd is now at lower tl, not sure if it will offer us an entry after retrace to 8/21ema to then bounce off and break support. maybe check 1h chart
usdchf could prepare a long off 8/21ema, but it has shown a lot of uncertain movements...
Last night, I saw a trading opportunity in EU when a evening star formation appeared. However, I was trying to avoid today's NFP and hence, give it a miss. If this momentum can continue after tonight, there is a good chance to catch another rhythm for this pair
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #22,931
  • Edited 10:34pm Jun 3, 2010 9:10pm | Edited 10:34pm
Quoting smikester
I wasn't sure about that H4 trade but 92 was an important level. It hardly hesitated, which was unusual. I'm wondering if the Japan fundamentals have taken hold (see news section - new PM).
Hi Smikester,

There was noticeable yen selling during the Asian session today - especially in the first few hours of the Japanese open so the new PM has definitely something to do with it.

However, during yesterday's London/US sessions, both EJ and GJ fell more than 100 pips whereas UJ hardly moved at all and went up further during today's Asian session.

It is also likely that it is due to NFP as the NFP figures are expected to be very good and UJ is expected to react the best followed by AU, NU.
  • #22,932
  • Edited 10:15pm Jun 3, 2010 9:20pm | Edited 10:15pm
Quoting silverfox88
Last night, I saw a trading opportunity in EU when a evening star formation appeared. However, I was trying to avoid today's NFP and hence, give it a miss. If this momentum can continue after tonight, there is a good chance to catch another rhythm for this pair
You are becoming a good analyst.
  • #22,933
  • Edited 10:14pm Jun 3, 2010 9:22pm | Edited 10:14pm
Quoting ashes
shorting cad @1,0395, r=80=sl=tp(on 200sma)

price has bounced off 21ema on downmove and closed below 8ema
around the 200 sma it had bounced off and now may come back to it
Good luck Ashes
  • #22,934
  • Edited 10:16pm Jun 3, 2010 9:32pm | Edited 10:16pm
Quoting ashes

unfortunately tomorrow is nfp day, so if we enter we should make sure to be at least be before news
This is one of those weeks where traders have traded the rumour and they will reap their profits when the facts are disclosed when NFP is released so it is best to wait. If the NFP figures are not as good as rumoured, there will definitely be a reaction.
  • #22,935
  • Jun 3, 2010 11:39pm Jun 3, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting xeneric
You are becoming a good analyst.
Thanks Xeneric for your comment I am still learning and looking forward to learn more from you guys
  • #22,936
  • Jun 4, 2010 2:05am Jun 4, 2010 2:05am
@Silverfox
good analysis, I didn't see that one on my gmt+2 mt4. it would have been a great trade

@Xeneric
I agree on the rumors. no real rhythm and makets getting squeezed in.
a lot of anxiety since yesterday gmt evening when the market slowed down a lot, expecting todays news.
  • #22,937
  • Jun 4, 2010 2:55am Jun 4, 2010 2:55am
Quoting davidwu61
I have made roughly 60 pips (demo) using M15 entry based on MACD H4.
The whole process took about 3 hr of time around the London open.
This is the first time I formally using my new chart layout, I may be just getting lucky.

Pairs traded last night: usdchf, chfjpy, eurjpy

The profit is: 15-20 pips (play it safe). 30 pips (aggressive trading)
Stop loss: 10 pips ( invisible to broker ) below M15 EMA 21.


I attached two charts below. The trades are between the two red vertical bars.

The general idea is looking for price action going against...
hi sir
hpw do i get the mtf macd that r exactly as on ua chart especially the bottom one
  • #22,938
  • Edited 6:27am Jun 4, 2010 6:05am | Edited 6:27am
eu attempts to break support, candle will close in 2h, 30min after nfp news release .... that candle could become a signal if nfp speculation doesn't mess it up

also gu could show a short entry in near future if it wasn't for nfp ....
  • #22,939
  • Jun 4, 2010 7:36am Jun 4, 2010 7:36am
Hi everyone,

I will go short EU if it breaks the big signal candle which broke out from the res level and gave TC signal.

Any comment?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu breakout.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #22,940
  • Jun 4, 2010 7:41am Jun 4, 2010 7:41am
Quoting March2011
Hi everyone,

I will go short EU if it breaks the big signal candle which broke out from the res level and gave TC signal.

Any comment?
I've got a very simmilar chart on eu. it definitely shows that the support has been broken. however I'm not going to enter, since the signalcandle is very large. maybe we get a retrace to support and a nice bounce off 8/21 to enter next week ...

... so, since price has run away on the other pairs also, I call it a week.

a good weekend to everyone
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