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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #16,321
  • Jun 7, 2010 10:54pm Jun 7, 2010 10:54pm
Quoting Haymaker
I still believe that we will see 93.00 before it resume its downtrend to 88.12. Many traders are calling for 95 but I think it won't happen. Let's observe what happens next.

if usdjpy can breakout 92.10 area tonite..I could expect seeing 93 above area this week...

Most JPY pairs looking good.
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  • #16,322
  • Jun 7, 2010 11:05pm Jun 7, 2010 11:05pm
I have a short .... @89.30
so resolving this short, I put long!....93~94,xx 97,00~101,xx
  • #16,323
  • Edited Jun 8, 2010 12:07am Jun 7, 2010 11:55pm | Edited Jun 8, 2010 12:07am
Quoting Mary Silvert
I have a short .... @89.30
so resolving this short, I put long!....93~94,xx 97,00~101,xx
You are trading without any stop order? That's very brave. How do you manage the psychology of 230 pips against you? I can't do that......
  • #16,324
  • Jun 8, 2010 12:11am Jun 8, 2010 12:11am
Anyone else seeing a upward trending pennant continuation pattern (with consolidation) on the 15 minute chart with a possible move to 92.5 and higher?
  • #16,325
  • Jun 8, 2010 12:15am Jun 8, 2010 12:15am
Quoting ricket
Anyone else seeing a upward trending pennant continuation pattern (with consolidation) on the 15 minute chart with a possible move to 92.5 and higher?
I think the highest it may go is 93.10. Unless 93.50 is breach, the trend is still bearish towards 88.12. That's only my humble opinion.
  • #16,326
  • Jun 8, 2010 12:22am Jun 8, 2010 12:22am
Quoting Haymaker
I think the highest it may go is 93.10. Unless 93.50 is breach, the trend is still bearish towards 88.12. That's only my humble opinion.
It could definitely still break to the downside, got my trades set up in both directions. It seemed to be a little sideways, but could still reverse at this point.
  • #16,327
  • Jun 8, 2010 12:27am Jun 8, 2010 12:27am
Quoting ricket
It could definitely still break to the downside, got my trades set up in both directions. It seemed to be a little sideways, but could still reverse at this point.
Since you are trading both directions, do you think it'll go to 88.12 first or 95 first?
  • #16,328
  • Jun 8, 2010 1:03am Jun 8, 2010 1:03am
Longer term, Im not so sure. Shorter term, since it just broke out of the pennant (on the upside), Im thinking it will more than likely go to 92.5 (the approximate target price based on the height of the pole) before possibly correcting. I think there will be much more news that could whipsaw the price between now and 93.5 that may change the forecast. I have a trailing stop to follow the price up, so hopefully if theres any correction that I miss, I'll catch some pips before the automatic stop loss kicks in.

Also, volume looks to be in the uptrending direction (and thus confirming the patter). I'm looking for the volume to reverse (e.g. high volume with downtick in price) before possibly manually liquidating if I haven't reached my target price (and pip gains) first.
  • #16,329
  • Jun 8, 2010 2:16am Jun 8, 2010 2:16am
Went short at 91.92 aim 91.75. Done! Lucky!
  • #16,330
  • Jun 8, 2010 2:30am Jun 8, 2010 2:30am
have 3 positions open:

USDCAD long @1.05516 target adjustable 1.05396

GOLD long @1241.05 target adjustable 1251.66
GOLD long @1241.20 target adjustable 1261.58

micho over and out
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #16,331
  • Edited 2:51am Jun 8, 2010 2:34am | Edited 2:51am
I believe the minister Kan, will say that the commitment to the Japanese people is in its battle to relocate the base from Okinawa, but this will not happen again! thus, the Japanese currency will depreciate again (the new minister will step aside soon !!!).
Before that happens usually believe the change in price USD / JPY because of problems in EUROPE.
In the short term, will test 89, xx and in the long term, going to 95,xx ~ 97,xx , (Naoto Kan wants the Yen appreciated). I look across this dynamic in the next 10 days (short term) and in the next 30 ~ 90 days in the long run!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aG_wSOFivAmM
  • #16,332
  • Jun 8, 2010 2:35am Jun 8, 2010 2:35am
a stop at 92.97 area on the daily could be a double top and then run us back down.
If she breaks north of that area, then 94.97 would be next stop.
92.09 is the 100sma on the daily chart. Could hold up.

Kinda any which way possible here.
  • #16,333
  • Jun 8, 2010 2:36am Jun 8, 2010 2:36am
Quoting Mary Silvert
I...
USD/JPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,334
  • Jun 8, 2010 2:42am Jun 8, 2010 2:42am
Quoting Haymaker
I think the highest it may go is 93.10. Unless 93.50 is breach, the trend is still bearish towards 88.12. That's only my humble opinion.

I'M WITH YOU IN THIS!:nerd:

IF THE STOCK EXCHANGE (DOW JONES) FALL MORE THAN 300 POINTS AGAIN, WILL TO 90,XX :nerd:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI
  • #16,335
  • Jun 8, 2010 3:07am Jun 8, 2010 3:07am
Yes. 90.99 is possible.

Spare us for the CAPS please!
  • #16,336
  • Jun 8, 2010 3:17am Jun 8, 2010 3:17am
Quoting Rush
Yes. 90.99 is possible.

Spare us for the CAPS please!

90.XX AFTER.............89.XX

NOW.......90.XX .....LOOKING!!!!
  • #16,337
  • Jun 8, 2010 3:35am Jun 8, 2010 3:35am
If any day close at below 91.10 its a signal to go short aiming 88.12. Hope my analysis is workable for yen (I am using aussie style analysis).
  • #16,338
  • Jun 8, 2010 3:37am Jun 8, 2010 3:37am
Quoting Mary Silvert
90.XX AFTER.............89.XX

NOW.......90.XX .....LOOKING!!!!
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #16,339
  • Jun 8, 2010 3:50am Jun 8, 2010 3:50am
I'm now only using a couple of EMAs on the 4HR and Daily charts. I am hoping to learn more about the yen and its behaviour. Anybody have a better way to trade yen ? Help appreciated.
  • #16,340
  • Jun 8, 2010 4:00am Jun 8, 2010 4:00am
Quoting Haymaker
I'm now only using a couple of EMAs on the 4HR and Daily charts. I am hoping to learn more about the yen and its behaviour. Anybody have a better way to trade yen ? Help appreciated.
Not Yen specific:
Trendlines, channels (I believe that one can make money in this market trading ONLY channel bounces and breakouts) and chart patterns. I think people really over-complicate trading. It works. It's easy. Getting the discipline to take the trades when everyone else is saying the opposite is hard.
Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
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