EURUSD

Falling wedge pattern indicates you may be correct. It broke out on the upside around 8PM EST.

you know what I hate? the smartest things in forex are dumb, like the the trend is your friend, i have it written in my siggy, half the traders do..., but worse than that you're trying something different or a little bit silly and some guy with like 3000 posts comes down on you with dry as toast sounding moral so he can say his little thing, and your eyes start to droop, and theres nothing to trade anyway so you start thinking about tacos or burgers or something...and nobody give charts for their losing trades? ever see one of those???...mmm losing money...no trades so far this week...waiting for a pullback, damnit...

Hey guys long time no see, actually I've been reading this thread from time to time , but as I'm damn lazy , never posted anything for a while. What follows is pure speculation by me, but I thought it would be interesting to see this point of view. In case there are any longer term players here, I got a very good signal with horizon over the rest of this year, and possibly parts of the next.

My strategy is going long at present level, with a stop at 1600. First target 1.30. Second 1.50. Third above 1.60 in uncharted territory. As a way to reduce the risk I suggest a correlative hedge - short DOW with longer term target 2008 bottom and possibly below.

Scenarios:
-I expect first target on the euro to be hit in about 2-3 months, mainly caused by purely technical reasons. The dow might rally about 500 points, if it stops falling at present support. I suggest entering the hedge at that point.
-Then we either break above the resistance and head for 1.50, or we fall to retest the 1.18 area.
-A strong break below current support for the DOW can send it swiftly to the 2008 bottoms and below. At the same time a decisive break below the current support can break the correlation between the euro and the dow.

Technical side: I see the euro as having finished an ABC wave correction with A being the 2008 bottom, B the 1.50 top last year, and C the current lows. This leaves us open to an entirely new cycle with wave 1 ending at 1.30, wave 3 at 1.50 and 5 possibly at or above 1.60. We are currently sitting at major MA support as well, and there are bullish patterns emerging, as seen in the chart.

The DOW still hasn't finished it's corrective ABC movement imo. Point A was in 2008, point B is the current top at 11200... and C is yet to come, possibly as low as point A, or in the perfect case even lower. Patterns active - bump and run reversal, possibly emerging H&S.

Fundies:
The eurozone has made significant efforts to solve the debt/deficit problems.
The reaction is quite overdone. I expect european problems to fall from focus as the US or in the worst case China take the lead in the race down.
Looming problems such as FDIC and fannie and freddie losses deepen, US deficit, certain states such as California and NY. A potentially lethal Chinese bubble could explode and make things worse, as China is a big time holder of US debt. Indications(employment stats for example and other data) shows that the private sector isn't in good shape and that stimulus spending might become ineffective. In this scenario the only possible way out for the US might be a very dovish fed and a weak dollar to ease the debt, as I doubt that the US would embrace the path of austerity and cuts. A weaker dollar is desired, or at least not opposed by the FED.
Overall I see the Crisis finally over for good in the late 2011/early 2012. The game plan is long euro, short dow.

Cases in which the trade is cancelled: Major and unpredicted political events which change the picture, monthly close decisively at or below 1600 in the euro. A huge dow rally above 11200 before the months end.

Any1 else with a long term view care to share thoughts?

they are completely messing around with pattern traders........breaking rules ......and fullfilling same destiny.......it puts leverage to the limit.....could it be in corrections only......

they keep on shaking me off.....they have delayed time cycles.....It is happening..........Regulation.........

Better back to position trading......

My days trades... boring scalping day as you can see. There's a loss that could be avoided if only I waited some hours to develop.

Nice work though. If you can do that consistently you'll be rich soon. Scalping both ways in flurries is tough, you'll always get a couple of losers. At best i'd break even doing that, know from experience....

http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/5683/euro.gif

Thanks, but when I'm in scalping mode my position size is 1/10th of normal positions. So there's no real profit though.

Wow nice little spike on EURUSD now.

Nice trades man. good day and good strategy

!

Is that Gator? LOL

That is a pretty cup pattern on the 5 min chart

Makes you want to grab a gin and tonic and hear some more maybe something like 'they blew my stop but I'm ok to trade another day'..

I see that too. 1.19775+ perhaps (given a 1/3 breakout of the depth of the cup)?

LMAO!!!

Same raz that posts on iTulip??

EDIT: Nevermind...

Interesting. I was thinking of taking a short if it bounces off today's R1 at 1984 ... but if it breaks it looks like that 2045 R2 could be another opportunity.

Hey Donnie, their is also a couple TL's that merge their as well. It looks like a good spot.

nice, thanks for posting man

i got a pending short at 2058. it looks like usd is gonna be on the receiving end of an ass whippen. if i get stopped out there.. 2114 2152.. maybe 1991 will hold.. maybe not..