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  • #253,541
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:21am Jun 5, 2010 9:21am
Quoting SkyzerFX
...

You cannot predict future based on history events.

Yes it's a possibility, but no guarantee.. That's why everyone just Guessing.

NOBODY can say exactly where Dollar going to be 1 year from now..

...
I could not agree more
  • #253,542
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:35am Jun 5, 2010 9:35am
chart patterns are misleading most of the time.
But analysts, fxcm teams for example, are still calling them everyday. If one fails, then they call another one tomorrow. There is no end of such bullshit. Maybe it is a profitable business.
  • #253,543
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:40am Jun 5, 2010 9:40am
  •  Now
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: 'I should have taken the money' | 654 Posts
Quoting bbakker
Unless the mule has diarrhoea
then we have immodium
Being right is one, taking it from the table is two.
  • #253,544
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:42am Jun 5, 2010 9:42am
Quoting mry2001
chart patterns are misleading most of the time.
But analysts, fxcm teams for example, are still calling them everyday. If one fails, then they call another one tomorrow. There is no end of such bullshit. Maybe it is a profitable business.

I have found patterns found in trend (found in a greater trend) are very very very
good!!!! In fact the very best way to trade!!!

just my thoughts

TEB
  • #253,545
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:44am Jun 5, 2010 9:44am
Quoting gatorinla;3777332[B
]its gone down with or w/o nfp.. the question is will it bounce or not... if nfp is usd negative we will be back here in a day or 2 anyway.[/b]
sky another.. and lets correct the 0.. i say a believe it will go to a 0 or a point where banks will not trade it. this is not in my charts. its my belief. it may take a war to do this (years away not next week). in the shorter term maybe in a year or 4. i believe its worth will be less then the aud. and maybe lower then the kiwi. Charts also suggest this. both are less then the usd atm. but if aud and kiwi become more valuable verses usd the euro will move up accordingly. Charts tell me .8xxx.. experience tells me we may overshoot. .5/.8.. thats not to say there wont be many bounces for 500 pips are more until..

my charts and what i know to be true about ponzi schemes point in one direction. i cant tell you from a chart when or if intervention will or not happen.. i can tell you had we not had it we would already be at all time lows. intervention is what gave eu its all time high.. a free market will give it a new all time low. all the free market guys don't really want a free market. In a true free market all those European pensions will go to 0. if pensions go to 0 we all know what happens after. the weight of the world is on German shoulders. The truth is they cant support it.. then all pensions go to 0.. and we all know what happens after. intervention will work till it don't. then pensions go to 0.. and we all know what happens after. This is not a pre 19th century world. few live on a farm and produce what they eat. when people get hungry shit happens. imf will insure people are hungry.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #253,546
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:47am Jun 5, 2010 9:47am
Quoting TEB63
I have patterns found in trend (in a greater trend) are very very very
good!!!! In fact the very best way to trade!!!

just my thoughts

TEB
i'll second that... when i first started trading i was wondering what people were seeing in their charts and how they were seeing those things... one person on this forum mentioned if you practice the charts will start to draw patterns for you and you will automatically realise them... in the last couple of months i have been seeing flags formed, H&S while they are forming, wedges... its amazing and so much more reliable on a larger tf.. my only problem is i won't trade more than 1 percent of my account and it isn't easy to take trades on a larger timeframe due to having wide stops... not always but most of the time... but that day will come
  • #253,547
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:48am Jun 5, 2010 9:48am
Quoting bbakker
Unless the mule has diarrhoea
the diarrhea ones die quicker.. they shit less long
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #253,548
  • Edited 10:19am Jun 5, 2010 9:52am | Edited 10:19am
Quoting jaylovin
i'll second that... when i first started trading i was wondering what people were seeing in their charts and how they were seeing those things... one person on this forum mentioned if you practice the charts will start to draw patterns for you and you will automatically realise them... in the last couple of months i have been seeing flags formed, H&S while they are forming, wedges... its amazing and so much more reliable on a larger tf.. my only problem is i won't trade more than 1 percent of my account and it isn't easy to take trades on a larger...
Patterns also fail, but then it is not called a pattern and nobody points out failed patterns. I use patterns for confirmation of a trade I am already in.
  • #253,549
  • Jun 5, 2010 10:00am Jun 5, 2010 10:00am
@jaylovin +

i don't trade patterns on so high TF, but it gives me ideas where we could go.
As we all know this is forex and anything can happen, every pattern can fail.
My entries are based on "the dance" system and it works for me. There are loses sometimes but overall im in profit.
  • #253,550
  • Jun 5, 2010 10:01am Jun 5, 2010 10:01am
Quoting SkyzerFX
I just showed in my previous example with the screen shots

that charts do lie, especially on normal timeframe, not what you are

using yearly charts, to use them you'll need 2000 pips stop loss..

You cannot predict future based on history events.

Yes it's a possibility, but no guarantee.. That's why everyone just Guessing.

NOBODY can say exactly where Dollar going to be 1 year from now..

could be at 100 or as I think below 74. Tell me where June 05 2011

then I would type in, comeback in 1 year and tell you if charts lie...
if that is true, then why do people even use charts? Lets just guess when we trade.......

might as well head to vegas and play some blackjack....ohhh wait, thats another game where the past determines the future. Oh well!
  • #253,551
  • Jun 5, 2010 10:10am Jun 5, 2010 10:10am
Quoting TEB63
very very true!!!!!!!!!!

I think the euro nation is going to try and the hold the line at 1.7
(so 1.6 will be the very lowest bounce off very very strong S.)

but lets see what really happens... lol ... lol
germany and france will have to do something
and their plans must me in place now,
to hold the line at 1.6 to 1.7 area
-

teb
they will weigh the cost. if its cheaper to let the euro go then the benefits, they will let it go. Germany has done well with it.. but they are just 1 in 15.. when the cost of supporting other members is put into the recipe Germany will not do as well.. Add in Asia chipping away at Germany.. they didn't have this pressure the first decade. Its a different world then the 30 years earlier when ez plans were conceived. we are 2 years away from 2008 crack.. wait till year 3 or 4 as Germany spends its reserves the other members have already spent theirs. so they will have to print or not print. inflation or stagnation from deflation... neither good for euro survival. as sky pointed out u.s. is in bad shape.. so where is little political will to help.. with all the u.s." audit the fed" momentum bb is less willing to bail out Europe with currency swaps in the middle of the night. so intervention is less likely. So its less likely the usd will be raped as it was in the past to fund a 1.6 eu.. or even a 1.2 one..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #253,552
  • Jun 5, 2010 10:21am Jun 5, 2010 10:21am
Hi. Can somebody tell my what happen in monday on eu ? i have long on 12030 and don't nol keep this or shut down;/
  • #253,553
  • Jun 5, 2010 10:22am Jun 5, 2010 10:22am
Quoting SkyzerFX
I just showed in my previous example with the screen shots

that charts do lie, especially on normal timeframe, not what you are

using yearly charts, to use them you'll need 2000 pips stop loss..

You cannot predict future based on history events.

Yes it's a possibility, but no guarantee.. That's why everyone just Guessing.

NOBODY can say exactly where Dollar going to be 1 year from now..

could be at 100 or as I think below 74. Tell me where June 05 2011

then I would type in, comeback in 1 year and tell you if charts lie or not.

And if you...
when is a guess not a guess? if it happens over and over its less likely to be a guess.. go back to the cad 3 years ago.. see what happened after 30 years. very little retrace in that drop..

im not a fisherman except for pleasure. but i do own a few boats. education?.. lets say i passed the first grade. hey it would be so funny for a first grade dropout to be worth more then a doctorate.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #253,554
  • Jun 5, 2010 10:26am Jun 5, 2010 10:26am
Quoting TEB63
I have found patterns found in trend (found in a greater trend) are very very very
good!!!! In fact the very best way to trade!!!

just my thoughts

TEB
some just don't get it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #253,555
  • Jun 5, 2010 10:32am Jun 5, 2010 10:32am
Quoting bbakker
Patterns also fail, but then it is not called a pattern and nobody points out failed patterns. I use patterns for confirmation of a trade I am already in.
lots of 95%ters here and they don't even know it. I just count.. tick tock

peace out
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #253,556
  • Jun 5, 2010 10:39am Jun 5, 2010 10:39am
I love this lol



Two Laws on Bullish and Bearish Economists

by William Sherden


Remember:

The First Law of Economics: For every economist, there is an equal and opposite economist
--so for every bullish economist, there is a bearish one.

The Second Law of Economics: They are both likely to be wrong.


teb
  • #253,557
  • Jun 5, 2010 10:45am Jun 5, 2010 10:45am
Quoting gatorinla
... its my belief. it may take a war to do this (years away not next week). in the shorter term maybe in a year or 4. d what i know to be true about....

and we all know what happens after. This is not a pre 19th century world. few live on a farm and produce what they eat. when people get hungry shit happens. imf will insure people are hungry.
yo gator...currently cruising (south) at 37k feet over idaho or colorado somewhere and just saw your post....

Looking out the window and getting reminded more than ever before of how small things on the ground really are when the perspective changes, i'm also more convinced than ever that what you said is in the cards. my guess is the trigger will be eastern europe first and i guess i'll go ahead out on that limb and say the (war) clouds will gather thickly and quickly over the next couple years... see this post here from last week or the one before, I sorta lost track of time lately...
Quoting ak4x
...This includes what I anticipate to be significant conflict developing in the eastern European region over the mid to longish term. I don't think it's imminent as those clouds generally take a little time to gather, but feel free to bookmark this post for Future reference. Unfolding events could easily accelerate that scenario into the "not so far near" to mid-term timeline.

I don't expect to see the EU ultimately survive in anything resembling it's current configuration and the alternatives are depressng...
We just spent nearly 3 weeks watching our kids (in hawaii) basically eat out of the ocean and pick stuff off the trees almost any time they wanted to. Some of the locals they know that live farther back in those really deep valleys you have to get invited into live that way off the grid all the time and have done so for a very long time, like generations.

Gives one food for serious thought... Ticking and Tocking my way back into the "Real World"... yeah right.
FUBAR...
  • #253,558
  • Edited 11:41am Jun 5, 2010 10:50am | Edited 11:41am
great discussions for an early Saturday morning. I was about to start my work out and a movie on my projector when I decided to get on-line first. 30 minutes later and i'm still sitting here reading and not sweating. I don't want to interject too much, but I must say, looking out your window and assessing the economy is more accurate than watching CNBC or Bloomberg or Report on Business up here in Canada. The numbers that come out make me laugh. And I think that the average investor is slowing becoming unsettled and nervous. The big investors (Buffet, et al.) are already making their moves. Money is on the sidelines right now and the USD is benefitting. But when push comes to shove, who will really be ready?
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #253,559
  • Jun 5, 2010 10:54am Jun 5, 2010 10:54am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Don't panic over 1 bad DOW day.. Comeback next week and see..
I've been on Market long enough.. NO 7000 anymore
because
a) dollar value is little over Zero
b) Interest rates are zero
Money has to be made somewhere..
Just relax, comeback next week and I show how it goes..
Yes and 7000 is absurd, because currencies getting devaluated..
and 14000 in 2010 might mean 8000 in 2002. Just like that..
Compare DOW to GOLD, that's all.. DOW can go to 20000 just because
currencies will lose their value..
  • #253,560
  • Jun 5, 2010 10:57am Jun 5, 2010 10:57am
Quoting gatorinla
lots of 95%ters here and they don't even know it. I just count.. tick tock

peace out
May be but never think 95 % are minors here in FF & not know all the ups & down in life and that everything never works or will ever work what seems to work now and not ready to take consequences at their will . actually nobody knows that , even the rest 5% left oldbies/haggered too, which & when will work or not till done, that is seeing the future sitting in the present & seeing the past.

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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