NatGas weekly charts

...I am very sorry to jump in here like this; if I may, I just wanted to draw your attention to some Fibonacci TA as I can see that we have some excellent Traders and Fib experts in here. Thank you! (I am attaching Daily and 1 hour charts 'as is', hope this is ok).

Cheers for posting -

Could you give a summary of the charts also as I dont know how to read these -

all comments appreciated.

thank you. do you trade natgas ? please complete your explanation. never only fibo is enough to built a trade.

I trade a lot of natural gas for self-entertainment when bored

sorry

on demo ?

about the weather:

http://www.firstenercastfinancial.co...on-begins.html

I wish! Live, where it's much smellier

from you stomach ?

natgas is now in an uptrend ,target is about 4,55-4.80 to retest trendline . se daily chart. also graphic is under ema 200 days in green

2010 Hurricane Season

Bastardi is calling for the 2010 hurricane season to be a top-ten active year, sharply contrasting last year's calm season.

"Hurricane season will start early and stay late this year," said Bastardi. "My biggest fear is that it goes beyond the nasty season I have forecasted since February. 2010 may be remembered as the hurricane season from Hades."

He predicts a total of 16-18 storms and an early start with one or two threats by early July. Fifteen storms could strike amid the western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

He is forecasting seven storms to impact the U.S., five of those being hurricanes. Two or three of those hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.

He adds that in the heart of the season, there will be a "bunching" of tracks in the area around the southwest Atlantic.

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 20.

as you can see in daily chart , target touched as i said few days ago,and also right now is at 38,2 fibo pull back.

daily chart show that yesterday touched 38,2 fibo and today touched 50 % fibo. let's see if next week continue uptrend to 5,2-5,4.

on weekly chart price move into yellow chanel, and target is 7,5 if break major resistance 2009 year 6,1. right now is near 23,6 fibo.

let's see if today touch the target 5,2

as we can see , price stop at 50 % fibo . there are a lot of sellers here.

Schork Report

When discussing our bearish winter outlook for natural gas back in the fall, The Schork Report had some fun comparing the commodity against the Yugo
GV (the Soviet’s answer to the Ford Pinto). Our expressed point was that
natural gas and the Yugo GV were both cheap… for obvious reasons, i.e. there was
a glut of natural gas on the market and the Yugo, as Time Magazine described it,
“…exuded the feeling it was assembled at gunpoint”. In other words, there was
no value in owning either natural gas or a Soviet manufactured car.

To wit, despite one of the coldest winters on record, Henry Hub gas futures
peaked in early January and then spent the rest of the winter giving up one
third of its value. However, since late March the natural gas complex has been
the strongest performer in the S&P GSCI, up 24½% since the start of the quarter.

Thanks to Deepwater Horizon, concern in the market now appears to be growing
that our central planners in Washington will legislate increased demand for gas.
As such, Wall Street is apparently allocating capital accordingly.

Yesterday the spot Henry Hub futures contract on the NYMEX (rolling contract)
settled inside what our friend, Dennis Gartman dubs the box, i.e. the 50/62%
retracement in between 4.824 and 5.100 (note, we use a ratio scale). This is a
logical area to expect resistance.

Thus, the bears better put up a defense here or they should run for the hills

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/out...urricane.shtml

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Atlantic
Hurricane Season Outlook, released on May 27, 2010, predicted that the Atlantic
basin will likely experience above‐normal tropical weather activity during the
upcoming hurricane season (June 1 – November 30).1 NOAA projects that 14 to
23 named storms will form within the Atlantic Basin over the next 6 months,
including 8 to 14 hurricanes of which 3 to 7 will be intense

Based on the results of a Monte Carlo hurricane outage simulation using the
NOAA predictions for the level of hurricane activity, EIA estimates that
median outcomes for shut‐in production are 26 million barrels (bbl) of crude oil
and 166 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas in the Federally administered Gulf
of Mexico as a result of disruptions during the 2010 hurricane season. The
actual level of shut‐in production will depend on the number and severity of
storms that threaten the producing region during the upcoming season.

http://www.firstenercastfinancial.com/ estimate +94bcf

for prices in contracts :
http://www.firstenercastfinancial.com/e_prices.php

I HAVE READ THIS VERY IMPORTANT ARTICLE :

Time to Go Long Natural Gas

You've heard it all before: Supply is out-pacing demand... Our ability to horizontally drill for shale gas has made the supply picture seem unlimited... The short-term outlook is bleak...

Those are all fine examples of herd-mentality thinking.

Contrarians like us, on the other hand, keep a close eye on natural gas. Companies like Chesapeake Energy (CHK) have the potential to make you a killing.
As we head into the summer months, now is the time to buy natural gas and natural gas stocks.

The reason to buy now is that every year, summer is the weakest time of the year for natural gas consumption. This sets up a trade for natural gas stocks — buy in June-August, sell in December-January when North American heating demand should have natural gas trading at its year highs.

Last summer, natty gas stocks suffered. But like clockwork, September 2009 saw natural gas experience a large seasonal jump in prices.

In fact natty gas prices roughly doubled from $2.50/mmcf to $5 by January 2010. This occurred even though the market fundamentals for gas were poor. This was a good 4-month trading rally. Easy money in the bank.

Will this year be the same for natural gas traders?

According to energy analyst Keith Schaefer…

Natural gas prices in the US and Canada actually turned up last week, enough to get the market excited. I see that the market wants this trade to work so desperately. I am not bullish intermediate or even long term on natural gas, so I expect that if there is a rally in gas, it will just be a traders rally. But like I said, last year gave investors a fantastic seasonal rally in natural gas stocks — as long as you sold in January, the seasonal high.

As a trader, natural gas does have some positive things going for it besides seasonality:

Technically, it had a minor breakout this week. The 28-week moving average for natural gas this week was $4.52. This is just my sense, but as the price neared that level, more speculative fever came into the market that it would break through this level; when it did, natural gas got a pop. And the Canadian market followed suit in sympathy.
The market is clearly willing to bid natural gas up on weekly injections that are only a bit smaller than last year.
It’s possible that at some point in the coming weeks, the cumulative amount of gas going into storage will slip below last year. The market could take that as a bullish point to move up the gas price. U.S. gas is only about 2% above last year’s storage levels at this time. (See chart below).
And U.S. gas prices will certainly get an emotional boost whenever the first hurricane is named.
Coal prices are trending higher, making natural gas more competitive in some areas.
U.S. gas demand is up year over year and crude inventories are declining.
The blowout of a U.S. gas rig in Marcellus shale could bring in new drilling regulations-increasing the cost and time to get wells into production.
The best trade for this decade...

Natural gas might be the best trade for this decade. In fact I’m buying as much natural gas as I can.

And I think you should, too.

In the coming weeks, Ian Cooper will be giving you more opportunities in the natural gas market.

Brian Hicks
Publisher, Wealth Daily