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  • #252,441
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:36pm Jun 3, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting suthmo
2135 go get my long order euro.
First time post!! Arrgh.

Suthmo - you're very specific with your ideas and a few hours ago you suggested 35 would be hit within an hour. Given that we still haven't got there, do you think your timing was just a little out or is it the level that is wrong?

I am long with a tight SL @ 45 figuring that it if breaks 54 then it'll target 1.2111. Therefore i also have a pending short at 40. Given yours and Gator's suggestion that 33/34 is the real key level then I'm likely to get stopped out on both my current long and then quickly on my pending short.

I do think it is going back up to 1.2218 where I'll reasses but likely short again from there, but I'm torn as to whether I should pull out now given yours/Gator's suggestion that the bounce will happen lower than here.
  • #252,442
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:36pm Jun 3, 2010 6:36pm
No going above 2170 works for me.

Those crazy Tokyo guys are going to prop this thing up tonight. I just know it.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #252,443
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:37pm Jun 3, 2010 6:37pm
Quoting FFBrian13
This is a question that has always bothered me. Through quantative easing, the government bought up a lot of their own paper from banks, right? If they raise rates, wouldn't the value of that paper increase, thus driving government debt down? Not sure I totally understand the negative ramifications of raising rates now. I mean, as Hoening pretty much said, 1% is still pretty accomodative to banks.
As for the government, there are lending money from others through the selling treasury notes, if the rates go up investors want more yield otherwise they will stall their money elsewhere. the government still need to pay their debt only now with higher interest...

And for banks its also hard, because even with low rates they're having trouble to find new credit because of the bad state they are in..a hike definitely won't help
  • #252,444
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:39pm Jun 3, 2010 6:39pm
Quoting Jhig
I sort of agree with Skyzer, the dollar is dead ... has been dead for a while now. The problem with the dollar is volatility and volatility equals profit. The essential idea of trading it to trade the largest, fastest moving market to turn a profit. The average daily range of EU is 120 pips. Not really a of movement in a day for traders to profits off of. Look at it this way, before i place a price action trade (need three candlesticks to be obtained for entry) and by the time my entry is set, price action would have hit it's daily high....
hell back in the day when 100 move was a big move.. most of these guys would of starved.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #252,445
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:40pm Jun 3, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting TudorJonesJR
As for the government, there are lending money from others through the selling treasury notes, if the rates go up investors want more yield otherwise they will stall their money elsewhere. the government still need to pay their debt only now with higher interest...

And for banks its also hard, because even with low rates they're having trouble to find new credit because of the bad state they are in..a definitely hike won't help
Understood. Thanks.
"If it was good enough for Gann, it's good enough for me..."
  • #252,446
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:44pm Jun 3, 2010 6:44pm
Quoting grandpost
the market turns bear exactly at the turn of the hour........

555555555555555555555555555555555555555555
3 cycles down and now 2 up................
yeah, f this, I'm leaving holding net positions again same longs and

shorts, will undo later which ever works.. This should be flat like plywood

now until tomorrow.. Place your bets accordingly

I place it on Black and on Red and on Double 00

Inserted Video
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #252,447
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:45pm Jun 3, 2010 6:45pm
I think we are going to fail to break 2300 around 8pm tomorrow and gap down the week end opening at 2164 on Sunday
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #252,448
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:51pm Jun 3, 2010 6:51pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Wrong! If Numbers are Good or Too Good, - you going to see Dullar whacking

and After initial EUR drop as jerk knee reaction I'm looking for 1.23 + at least (maybe even 1.24+)..

If Numbers are below expectations, then Market tanks and dollar soars..

Dollar will tank big, if numbers too good, Austin Powers, guarantee, yeah

Baby, Just watch!
So a move to risk appetite will send the dow up and dollar down - ?
Tudor had a point about short covering that makes alot of sense - I still see it as an opportunity to take profit and reposition shorts at higher levels.
  • #252,449
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:59pm Jun 3, 2010 6:59pm
quick 10 pip long scalp closed long at 1.21739. looks like long are going to give it a try. or clip people out of trades.
  • #252,450
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:59pm Jun 3, 2010 6:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
hell back in the day when 100 move was a big move.. most of these guys would of starved.
I think some traders are starving now. Its what you get when the world's currency reserve is in dollars. Everyones swimming in the same pond and that pond is huge but overly crowded. With the world all trading the same pair, you get low volatility. EU and other USD based pairs are considered (in my own opinion) as a safe long term investment, like bonds or CD's. In today's market USD pairs are not for day traders.

So a small group of traders, myself included have moved shop to a smaller pond, with smaller group of traders, creative a lot of volatility. And i'm sure once trading volatile crosses catches on, Usd fish will flock to the cross pond, drying up volatility. When that happens I'll be looking towards trading the exotics ( Poland, Czech Republic, Thailand, South Korea and South Africa, to name just a few.)
  • #252,451
  • Jun 3, 2010 7:01pm Jun 3, 2010 7:01pm
Not that I can do it perfectly everytime....because it is hard to pick exactly the correct candle and the shift in time that takes place

I am posting this while the market is still not in my favor to prove that I know the exact market turn.......

It's a 1 minute chart and the green line is the turning point....allow 5 min to perfection because I applied time cycle to 5 min chart.....

Watch as this happens NOW.........IF It does READ a BOOK
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gann26.gif Size: 53 KB
  • #252,452
  • Jun 3, 2010 7:05pm Jun 3, 2010 7:05pm
I am out of my trade now. Took my pips and went home.

Kind of magical how it leaped up for my 2180 sl.

Going to watch for the NFP now.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #252,453
  • Jun 3, 2010 7:09pm Jun 3, 2010 7:09pm
Quoting Mungle
So a move to risk appetite will send the dow up and dollar down - ?
Tudor had a point about short covering that makes alot of sense - I still see it as an opportunity to take profit and reposition shorts at higher levels.
Could be,still hard to predict. My scenario with good news would be, first short covering in the Euro for risk appetite and then afterwards a downwards trend.
I think that the good news, expectation of good news, mostly already is priced in the stockmarkets, not much more upwards potential left, but hey moves always run longer than expected...
This is all just bit premature and second guessing, we really see what happens tomorrow
  • #252,454
  • Jun 3, 2010 7:15pm Jun 3, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting Jhig
I think some traders are starving now.
Then they're not good traders.

Quote
With the world all trading the same pair, you get low volatility.
Except that entire world doesn't just trade one pair, and cross pairs are extremely correlated to the majors. Even the majors are heavily correlated.

Quote
In today's market USD pairs are not for day traders.
What have you been watching? Over the last 6 months, no pair I watch has fallen more than the eur-usd. EJ? 2500 pips. GJ? 2500 pips. Eur-Aud? 2500 pips. EU? 3000 pips. Of course that doesn't necessarily mean that the euro has been better for day traders, but some sense please!
  • #252,455
  • Jun 3, 2010 7:21pm Jun 3, 2010 7:21pm
Quoting grandpost
Not that I can do it perfectly everytime....because it is hard to pick exactly the correct candle and the shift in time that takes place

I am posting this while the market is still not in my favor to prove that I know the exact market turn.......

It's a 1 minute chart and the green line is the turning point....allow 5 min to perfection because I applied time cycle to 5 min chart.....

Watch as this happens NOW.........IF It does READ a BOOK
Grandpost,

Can you tell us what did you mean by that? What turning point, what book?
No kidding, your post is not very clear, but the market timing is very interesting thing.
Wookey
  • #252,456
  • Jun 3, 2010 7:22pm Jun 3, 2010 7:22pm
i took a GU short, 50 pip stop for now, divergence..pp..that's enough for me atm
  • #252,457
  • Jun 3, 2010 7:23pm Jun 3, 2010 7:23pm
Quoting jdg199
First time post!! Arrgh.

Suthmo - you're very specific with your ideas and a few hours ago you suggested 35 would be hit within an hour. Given that we still haven't got there, do you think your timing was just a little out or is it the level that is wrong?

I am long with a tight SL @ 45 figuring that it if breaks 54 then it'll target 1.2111. Therefore i also have a pending short at 40. Given yours and Gator's suggestion that 33/34 is the real key level then I'm likely to get stopped out on both my current long and then quickly on my pending short.

I...
2135 to 2210 10pm to 2091 7am to 2291 3 to 6pm The timing has gone out on my 1hour analysis Usually I cancel orders and they go off later. Interestingly I have run the analysis using 4 hour data and putting a different flavor of analysis produced the same result with different timing. I was considering jumping in long when we didn't hit 2135 when I said but I'll keep my order there. I think any sells over 2210 are gonna be left unfilled. But that's based on my system wich is either spot on or usless. It's up to you.

I would put SL+1 and reload at 2135 if we're right.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #252,458
  • Jun 3, 2010 7:25pm Jun 3, 2010 7:25pm
Hardwork....and I am showing this to you guys so you stop talking about the news......

Quoting grandpost
Not that I can do it perfectly everytime....because it is hard to pick exactly the correct candle and the shift in time that takes place

I am posting this while the market is still not in my favor to prove that I know the exact market turn.......

It's a 1 minute chart and the green line is the turning point....allow 5 min to perfection because I applied time cycle to 5 min chart.....

Watch as this happens NOW.........IF It does READ a BOOK
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gann27.gif Size: 51 KB
  • #252,459
  • Jun 3, 2010 7:29pm Jun 3, 2010 7:29pm
Ofcourse those who don't know they are like ....oh look this market went back up again.......a flop......the news says stand up......and everybody stands......


Quoting wookey
Grandpost,

Can you tell us what did you mean by that? What turning point, what book?
No kidding, your post is not very clear, but the market timing is very interesting thing.
  • #252,460
  • Jun 3, 2010 7:39pm Jun 3, 2010 7:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
go back to chart.. look at the levels we are currently at..simply find the mid mark.. @ 2171.6 .. not perfect but we missed by less then a single pip.. it would be kinda funny if that was the last time we were this high again forever. you can also look at the chart target.. that chart is 2 r 3 weeks old.. we hit all the others so far..
Excuse me - I just took a look at your chart. I think you are referring to this one :

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1275604172

Am I right ?

Well - there are many lines or areas - aprox. 17 levels mentioned there - looks as if a four hour chart. Marked as MID is 1.21402 here. But by what kind of method it is determined - or calculated. And I could not find your mentioned point or area 1.2171x on that chart.

Sometimes I use a 250 Ticks period to detect very close and near term levels of sup. or res. and I calculate on pivotal basis (manually) then..

H+L+C/3 etcetera

And then I got some near term close levels - for example central zone at 1.2169 - Res 1 at 1.2186 - Res 2 at 1.2208 - Sup 1 at 1.2146 - Sup 2 at 1.2129 etcetera.

But this is only meant for very immediate range estimation. Please could you explain on what it is based on? I do not have metatrader by the way - in case this is a mt4 charting tool.


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