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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #16,081
  • Jun 2, 2010 7:34am Jun 2, 2010 7:34am
Quoting uraceulose
UJ TRADE


update my long is very safe now, 30 pips locked in profit and 1/4 taken off the table..longed right at about the 91 area the first time.
when we break the 50 level, we head for the 61.8..4hr posted b4
Attachment
well done. the thing is you dont need to convince anybody, all you need is to convince yourself and to be consistently profitable... when i say an advise its not to convince anybody but to try and let them avoid heavy losses...

+120 on my AUDCAD closed now, still currently running my USDJPY 2 shorts at around 90... the loss is gonna be minimum -120 so these two are even. so far this month i am on +530 if you count the current situation in USDJPY but what i am expecting is +900 when USDJPY trades converge and close...
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #16,082
  • Jun 2, 2010 7:50am Jun 2, 2010 7:50am
close 3 of my transaction at 92.27. hoping to see this pair down to 91.xx again or perhaps 90.xx again to take more long. my long term analysis still bullish.........
  • #16,083
  • Jun 2, 2010 8:00am Jun 2, 2010 8:00am
Quoting yeri
close 3 of my transaction at 92.27. hoping to see this pair down to 91.xx again or perhaps 90.xx again to take more long. my long term analysis still bullish.........
nice trades bro!

http://www.forexlive.com/110528/all/...ping-up-usdjpy
  • #16,084
  • Jun 2, 2010 8:07am Jun 2, 2010 8:07am
two position short 92.16 and 92.26 TP 91.83 you are very welcome on thread:
USD/JPY maximum profit on DT
  • #16,085
  • Jun 2, 2010 9:17am Jun 2, 2010 9:17am
Quoting TheArcher
attempting a double-top ..?
or a range..?

answer : No .... probably keeping up with Prime Minister's resignation ...

will just watch and wait ...
Attached Image
  • #16,086
  • Jun 2, 2010 9:18am Jun 2, 2010 9:18am
Quoting micho
the post above was for the month of April

this post below for the month of March

Profit Trades (% of total): 14 (73.68%) Loss trades (% of total): 5 (26.32%) Largest profit trade: 437.35 loss trade: -88.72 Average profit trade: 80.85 loss trade: -38.52

kinda similar in %

how do u do it ?
  • #16,087
  • Jun 2, 2010 9:30am Jun 2, 2010 9:30am
Quoting TheArcher
how do u do it ?
to tell you the truth i developed a very mind challenging strategy that needs alot of patience, dedication, confidence and courage
i learned in 8 years by myself and grabbed some tips from here and there... i win and lose but the total is good. u have to be logical and use:

1- Fibonacci to identify the trends and targets
2- market sentiment to know is it bull or bear on all time frames
3- price action to know when to jump in
4- volume to know if its fake signal or not
5- divergence to avoid possible reversal
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #16,088
  • Jun 2, 2010 9:34am Jun 2, 2010 9:34am
Quoting micho
to tell you the truth i developed a very mind challenging strategy that needs alot of patience, dedication, confidence and courage
i learned in 8 years by myself and grabbed some tips from here and there... i win and lose but the total is good.
congratulations on ur discovery !

can share some essence of it / how it is done ?
  • #16,089
  • Jun 2, 2010 9:46am Jun 2, 2010 9:46am
Quoting micho
3- price action to know when to jump in
price action ... a term i see everyday in here , but don't know what it is all about ... what is price action really ? ..... when do u jump in ?

Quoting micho
4- volume to know if its fake signal or not
how to read volume if it is fake signal or not ?
  • #16,090
  • Jun 2, 2010 9:50am Jun 2, 2010 9:50am
Quoting TheArcher
price action ... a term i see everyday in here , but don't know what it is all about ... what is price action really ? ..... when do u jump in ?



how to read volume if it is fake dignal or not ?
price action is the candle signals bearish bullish bla bla
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #16,091
  • Jun 2, 2010 9:55am Jun 2, 2010 9:55am
when the volume is high its a strong signal, when the volume is low its a bad fake signal
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #16,092
  • Jun 2, 2010 9:58am Jun 2, 2010 9:58am
Quoting micho
price action is the candle signals bearish bullish bla bla
you mean : engulfing, harami , shooting star, doji , piercing , hammer, 3 soldiers, 3 crows etc ...?
  • #16,093
  • Jun 2, 2010 10:06am Jun 2, 2010 10:06am
Quoting TheArcher
you mean : engulfing, harami , shooting star, doji , piercing , hammer, 3 soldiers, 3 crows etc ...?
yes, and higher volume in your intended direction makes a good signal otherwise if the volume of the bullish engulfing for example is lower than the candle that preceded... it would be a weak signal
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #16,094
  • Jun 2, 2010 11:32am Jun 2, 2010 11:32am
Ultra high volume usually does NOT mean the price will continue in same direction. It's exactly what vsa'ers look for when searching for a reversal. see upthrust or climactic action candle

Check out the vsa thread, it sums up volume PA analysis pretty well. J16 covers it good as far as your PPZ's and straight up candle formations. pinbars, dbhlc, beob, buob etc..

edit: and to add, when you're looking at increasing volume on up bars..each bar should be "bigger/higher" if the buying volume is truly increasing..if not, you've got more sellers than buyers or buyers pushing price up(upthrust) to lock in longs..and also archer..all of those formations that you posted MADE UP TOGETHER make price action. it's not just one candle or even a couple, usually you're looking back 15-hundreds of bars..
  • #16,095
  • Jun 2, 2010 12:04pm Jun 2, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting uraceulose
Ultra high volume usually does NOT mean the price will continue in same direction....
dude, high volume in the same direction of your intended trade during the candle formation means a strong signal to trade that direction... this is it take it or leave it
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #16,096
  • Jun 2, 2010 12:09pm Jun 2, 2010 12:09pm
Quoting micho
dude, high volume in the same direction of your intended trade during the candle formation means a strong signal to trade that direction... this is it take it or leave it
Yes but it doesn't guarantee how much profit you can get if you decide to trade using that signal. That big candle with the ultra high volume might be a one-shot deal and the price goes right back up/down after it.

Nowadays, with the market being so choppy, this is happening more and more often. *sigh*
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #16,097
  • Jun 2, 2010 12:12pm Jun 2, 2010 12:12pm
Okay define high volume? greater than the last bar? greater than the last 5, 10...what?

high volume means greater than the previous bars..if volume is increasing and you have an up candle with a body/H/L of say 10 pips, more volume on next up candle but it goes up 9 pips, then more and it goes up 5 pips on the next..and so on.

This is a strong reversal signal when using volume...even more so if it's ultra high volume.

here's an example where I was arguing the case you are now and I was wrong...

just a couple days ago old chart..

that last candle that I titled where it says "volume on move as you'd expect" should say "ultra high volume shows weakness on up move" and as you can see after the higher volume on the candle, price came right down..
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  • #16,098
  • Jun 2, 2010 12:30pm Jun 2, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting uraceulose
Okay define high volume? greater than the last bar? greater than the last 5, 10...what?

high volume means greater than the previous bars..if volume is increasing and you have an up candle with a body/H/L of say 10 pips, more volume on next up candle but it goes up 9 pips, then more and it goes up 5 pips on the next..and so on.

This is a strong reversal signal when using volume...even more so if it's ultra high volume....
dude what the hell... you want to take a long position in a bear market... wtf

i consider strong short signals on bear markets and strong long signals on bull markets

bear and bull are defined on 4 time frames, the two higher time frames define direction (RSI<50 or >50), the smaller 3rd time frame defines the trend(apply fibonacci to the last significant trend on this time frame), the smallest 4th chart defines the price action and candle signals (take the position after a strong signal on this time frame taking into consideration that your target is at least 2 times further than the last retracement distance)
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #16,099
  • Jun 2, 2010 12:31pm Jun 2, 2010 12:31pm
i've rolled a long on USDJPY @92.13 target 92.33 adjustable...

dont imitate me
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #16,100
  • Jun 2, 2010 12:32pm Jun 2, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting Forexia
Yes but it doesn't guarantee how much profit you can get if you decide to trade using that signal. That big candle with the ultra high volume might be a one-shot deal and the price goes right back up/down after it.

Nowadays, with the market being so choppy, this is happening more and more often. *sigh*
dude once you have a strong signal, the price tends to touch the target of the trend according to Fibonacci before doing anything else
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
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