EURUSD

1.2331 hit and filled & out basta ...



jetzt interesiert es mich erst mal nicht


ding ding dong dong


egal



+ tschüss !

1. Irish economy is the sickest of them all, IMF study claims

Whether intended or not, Mr Lellouche may have pulled the detonation plug on EMU by boasting that Europe's politicians had created an EU debt union on the sly. "It is expressly forbidden in the treaties. De facto, we have changed the treaty," he told the Financial Times. How will that go down at Germany's constitutional court, already facing a growing in-tray of claims that these bail-outs breach the Maastricht Treaty?
For Spain it has been a horrible week. The central bank seized CajaSur and imposed draconian write-down rules on banks to restore confidence. The Spanish Socialist and Workers Party (PSOE) of Jose Luis Zapatero then rammed a 5pc cut in public wages through the Cortes by a single vote, shattering consensus. The government cannot hope to pass a budget. Its own trade union base is planning a general strike.
The sub-text of Fitch's 32-page report shows Mr Zapatero's self-immolation to be futile in any case. The agency has not downgraded Spain for lack of austerity. Its implicit conclusion is that the policy of 1930s wage cuts - or "internal devaluations" - being imposed on southern Europe's humiliated states as a quid pro quo for the EU shield is itself part of the problem. Ultra-austerity will bleed the economy, shrivel tax revenues and fail to close deficit anyway. "Fitch believes the risk that economic growth will fall short of the government's projections," it said.
El Pais spoke of a "perverse spiral" in its editorial. "The Fitch note drives home the apparently unsolvable contradiction in which the Spanish economy finds itself. To maintain debt solvency Spain must squeeze public spending: yet this policy undermines the chances of recovery which itself causes further loss of confidence."
Spain's unemployment was already 20.5pc even before this latest dose of shock therapy. There are 4.6m people without work. Dole payments alone account for half the budget deficit. By comparison, the Anuario Estadístico shows that Spain's unemployment never rose above 9.5pc during the Great Depression . The economy shrank by 3pc from peak to trough. The Zapatero slump is worse than anything inflicted by Gil Robles during the Bienio Negro.
It is no mystery why Spain is trapped in depression. The country joined the euro without grasping its Faustian implications, as did others. Germany was equally naive in thinking it could have a currency union entirely on its own terms.
EMU caused Spanish interest rates to halve overnight, with dire results as the Bank of Spain's governor confessed in April 2007. "The single monetary policy has meant that excessively loose conditions for our economy have been almost continuous," he said.
Real rates were -2pc as the bubble reached its crescendo. Nearly 800,000 homes were built in 2007, more than in Britain, Germany, and Italy combined. There is now an overhang of 1.6m unsold properties, six times the level per capita in the US. Total public/private debt has reached 270pc of GDP.
The boom was a debt illusion, just as it was in Britain but with the added twists of lower wealth to offset household debt and a global investment position that is underwater by 70pc of GDP. Britain still has the instruments to extricate itself. The Bank of England has engineered a devaluation of 20pc, restoring competitiveness at a stroke. Spain can try to claw back an even greater loss by cutting wages, but that risks a slow death by debt-deflation as compound interest tightens its vice.
This can end only in two ways. Either Germany tolerates massive monetary reflation by the ECB or Spain will be forced out of EMU, setting off a catastrophic chain-reaction through north Europe's banking system.
Your choice, Berlin.

Spain is trapped in a 'perverse spiral' as wage cuts deepen the crisis

The Spanish Inquisition used to burn Englishmen in Sevilla's Plaza de San Francisco when they had the chance. There must have been some nostalgia for this practice when the news hit that Fitch Ratings had stripped the country of its AAA status.



By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 5:34PM BST 30 May 2010





The downgrade could not have come at a more dreadful moment. The EU's €750bn "shield" for eurozone debtors has halted an incipient run on Club Med banks, but it has failed to restore full confidence for the obvious reason that such a guarantee cannot plausibly be extended from Greece to Portugal and then to Spain. The sums are too large, the number of solvent creditors too reduced, the intra-EMU politics too poisonous.

Pierre Lellouche, France's Europe minister, compares the shield to NATO's Article 4, the mutual defence clause that deems an attack on any one state to be an attack on all. Leaving aside the question of whether Nato's Article 4 was ever credible e_SEnD I doubt it was e_SEnD this use of NATO language illustrates the confusion in EU circles over the causes of the Club Med bond crisis. This is not a war. It is a beauty contest. Eurozone states must attract capital from pension funds and Asian central banks to finance their deficits or default.


Related Articles


Whether intended or not, Mr Lellouche may have pulled the detonation plug on EMU by boasting that Europe's politicians had created an EU debt union on the sly. "It is expressly forbidden in the treaties. De facto, we have changed the treaty," he told the Financial Times. How will that go down at Germany's constitutional court, already facing a growing in-tray of claims that these bail-outs breach the Maastricht Treaty?
For Spain it has been a horrible week. The central bank seized CajaSur and imposed draconian write-down rules on banks to restore confidence. The Spanish Socialist and Workers Party (PSOE) of Jose Luis Zapatero then rammed a 5pc cut in public wages through the Cortes by a single vote, shattering consensus. The government cannot hope to pass a budget. Its own trade union base is planning a general strike.
The sub-text of Fitch's 32-page report shows Mr Zapatero's self-immolation to be futile in any case. The agency has not downgraded Spain for lack of austerity. Its implicit conclusion is that the policy of 1930s wage cuts - or "internal devaluations" - being imposed on southern Europe's humiliated states as a quid pro quo for the EU shield is itself part of the problem. Ultra-austerity will bleed the economy, shrivel tax revenues and fail to close deficit anyway. "Fitch believes the risk that economic growth will fall short of the government's projections," it said.
El Pais spoke of a "perverse spiral" in its editorial. "The Fitch note drives home the apparently unsolvable contradiction in which the Spanish economy finds itself. To maintain debt solvency Spain must squeeze public spending: yet this policy undermines the chances of recovery which itself causes further loss of confidence."
Spain's unemployment was already 20.5pc even before this latest dose of shock therapy. There are 4.6m people without work. Dole payments alone account for half the budget deficit. By comparison, the Anuario Estadístico shows that Spain's unemployment never rose above 9.5pc during the Great Depression . The economy shrank by 3pc from peak to trough. The Zapatero slump is worse than anything inflicted by Gil Robles during the Bienio Negro.
It is no mystery why Spain is trapped in depression. The country joined the euro without grasping its Faustian implications, as did others. Germany was equally naive in thinking it could have a currency union entirely on its own terms.
EMU caused Spanish interest rates to halve overnight, with dire results as the Bank of Spain's governor confessed in April 2007. "The single monetary policy has meant that excessively loose conditions for our economy have been almost continuous," he said.
Real rates were -2pc as the bubble reached its crescendo. Nearly 800,000 homes were built in 2007, more than in Britain, Germany, and Italy combined. There is now an overhang of 1.6m unsold properties, six times the level per capita in the US. Total public/private debt has reached 270pc of GDP.
The boom was a debt illusion, just as it was in Britain but with the added twists of lower wealth to offset household debt and a global investment position that is underwater by 70pc of GDP. Britain still has the instruments to extricate itself. The Bank of England has engineered a devaluation of 20pc, restoring competitiveness at a stroke. Spain can try to claw back an even greater loss by cutting wages, but that risks a slow death by debt-deflation as compound interest tightens its vice.
This can end only in two ways. Either Germany tolerates massive monetary reflation by the ECB or Spain will be forced out of EMU, setting off a catastrophic chain-reaction through north Europe's banking system.
Your choice, Berlin.

France warns on credit rating

David Stamp
LONDON
Sun May 30, 2010 12:08pm EDT










http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/?...AUSTERITY-VOTE A screen shows the voting results for the Spanish government's austerity plan at the Parliament in Madrid May 27, 2010.
Credit: Reuters/Sergio Perez




LONDON (Reuters) - France admitted on Sunday that keeping its top-notch credit rating would be "a stretch" without some tough budget decisions, following German hints that Berlin may resort to raising taxes to help bring down its deficit.
France
Euro zone trade unions are preparing for possible confrontations in the coming week if governments impose austerity measures or labor reforms unilaterally.
But ministers made clear they were ready to take unpopular steps to prevent the Greek debt crisis spreading to their economies, although doubts are growing about whether the Spanish government in particular has enough support to get its way.
Budget Minister Francois Baroin indicated on Sunday that France should not take for granted its AAA rating, which allows Paris to borrow relatively cheaply on international markets and finance its big budget deficit.
"The objective of keeping the AAA rating is an objective that is a stretch, and it is an objective that, in fact, partly informs the economic policies we want to have," Baroin said.
"We must maintain our AAA rating, reduce our debt to avoid being too dependent on the markets, and we must do this for the long term," he told Canal+ TV in an interview.
Baroin later clarified that the target was "a demanding (objective) which we're committed to."
France has forecast its deficit will hit 8 percent of gross domestic product this year, but aims to bring it down to within the European Union's 3 percent limit by 2013.
Talks are under way on pension reform and Paris has frozen central government spending, barring pensions and interest payments, between 2011 and 2013. It is also considering a constitutional amendment to set binding budget deficit limits.
SCHAEUBLE SIGNALS
Berlin's budget problems are less severe but Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble signaled at the weekend that Germans may have to stomach tax rises as well as spending cuts.
Chancellor Angela Merkel's government is considering raising value-added tax (VAT) to the full rate of 19 percent on certain items that currently benefit from a lower rate of 7 percent, coalition sources told Reuters on Friday.
"If you abolish tax breaks, some will say that's a tax increase. At the end of the day, it's about having a sensible and balanced policy," Schaeuble told the Bild am Sonntag paper.
"And let's bear in mind that cuts on social spending hit those in the country with less money.
Germany's budget deficit is expected to exceed five percent of GDP in 2010, modest by current EU standards but well above the bloc's limit.
While France expressed its determination to hold on to its top-notch rating, Fitch on Friday became the second agency to strip Spain of its triple-A, sending markets reeling.
Spain's Socialist government is battling to prove to nervous markets that the euro zone's fourth largest economy will not go down the same path as Greece. But with political opposition growing at home, its ability to push through reforms is limited.
Weekend opinion polls put Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero's government far behind the opposition, and indicated that many voters believe he will have to call early elections as support for a 2011 austerity budget will be hard to muster.
"The government faces not only an economic crisis but a political crisis too, because the way it's governing is not good enough," said Angel Laborda, an economist at Spanish savings banks consultancy FUNCAS. "I believe that early elections will be called, sooner or later.
A deadline for the government, trade unions and business to agree on labor reforms, aiming to cut unemployment and make the Spanish economy more competitive, looms in the coming week.
Already a May 31 deadline has been pushed back a week. If the talks fail, the government says it will propose its own changes by June 11, risking a confrontation with the unions.
PREPARING THE DEFENCES
The unions, traditionally close to the Socialists, have said they will respond to any imposed reform with a general strike.
Unions across the continent are preparing their defenses. The European Trade Union Confederation will consider its response to austerity measures in Brussels on June 1 and 2.
But Italy's largest trade union already aims to force Rome to modify its austerity budget with a national strike, probably on June 25.
Europe's debt crisis began in Greece, after Athens revealed last year that its budget deficit was far higher than first reported. Investors reacted by dumping Greek government bonds, fearing Athens would default on its debt repayments.
But Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou promised that Greece would not restructure its debt.
"Debt restructuring would be disastrous for the country's credibility. It would lead to its marginalization from capital markets, to even more belt-tightening and a very deep recession," he told Sunday's Eleftherotypia newspaper.
Greece has agreed to drastic belt-tightening under a 110 billion euro ($134 billion) bailout organized by the EU and IMF.
(Reporting by Helen Massy-Beresford and Jean-Baptiste Vey in Paris, Paul Day in Madrid, Dave Graham In Berlin, Francesca Piscioneri and Gavin Jones in Rome, and George Georgiopoulos in Athens)

Fiber is very weak, I call for 1.1200 within 2 months time.

but the friggin problem right now, its too damn flat to consider taking a position !!!

Morning , nice it just start bouncing but not the great talking many days perhaps this time , go 1.2369 to 1.2390/1.2414 , try break successfully to up & great GO or can take another break down before the breaks up to a shallow or more deep last time to 1.2282,1.2246,1.22 to even support 1.2184.
anyway my long worked weekend & now go anywhere .
fontu

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=101

*LMFAO* who would of thunk it..

drop is started.. am i right??

yes. u are

wait for bottom to blow out.. to be safer. Tuesday may be a better day.. i got some oh shit entrys higher just in case.. they dont make enough lipstick for this pig.. what people don't get is the man behind the curtain has lost his curtain.. its not 2002... the lights are on.. i am waiting for the pump and dump..

eurusd at 1.2320 now, it will be nice if it can reach 1.2380/1.2400. There we will define if we go to 1.30 with a good empleyment number on friday.

Thank you Gatorinla...

perhaps to 1.2303 and if good luck then to 1.2284/77 , scalping can do ok but risky & can go 1.2370/84 before that movement down too. anyway risky scalping , for 5-10 pips to loose 50-60 pips but can be all positive .
decide yourself.
fontu

better wait...

thanx for the advice

i see this already in action

I cant wait..

what to wait?