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  • #249,741
  • May 29, 2010 6:43am May 29, 2010 6:43am
Paul Getty in his autobiography.
Page one he inherited his wealth
page 2 he kept hold of it.

In great crash he was buying when everyone else was selling....
  • #249,742
  • May 29, 2010 6:52am May 29, 2010 6:52am
Hi guys

there is a lot of talk about the Euro/Usd reversing

and no one can say what will happen; and if it does turn it could turn fast as we all know.

but let me say

1st. The day and 3(4) hour charts look very strong down.. bears in control
2nd. The Cott charts out on friday (from tuesday)
show no turn from the big boys at all from bears.
3rd. We still have a lot of bad news still to come out of South Europe.
4th. North Europe (Germany/ France) have not really helped this problem
in fact have done some strange things.
5th. The Euro counties still do not have plan.

tebhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/big_grin.gif
[email protected]
  • #249,743
  • May 29, 2010 7:23am May 29, 2010 7:23am
Quoting witsnpips
ok look guys, there are some similarities between greece and the US, but obviously there are major differences, one of which is that the US is the world's only superpower.
Yeah, talk about a superpower when you sold yourself to the Chinese money (No offense to the Chinese people) ...

Don't be too proud, the truth is that we're all "fuc*ed" with the monstrous worldwide credit crisis, engineered by Mr. Superpower...

The only problem with our American friends is that they still don't have wake up from their "American dream", when they will, they'll understand that it was in fact an "American NIGHTMARE".

Superpower... Thanks for the laugh.
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #249,744
  • May 29, 2010 8:20am May 29, 2010 8:20am
summorized: China and the rest of Asia bailed out the US, and the US bailed out Europe, who will bail out China when they get in trouble?
  • #249,745
  • May 29, 2010 8:28am May 29, 2010 8:28am
Quoting minosd
summorized: China and the rest of Asia bailed out the US, and the US bailed out Europe, who will bail out China when they get in trouble?
You and me from losing forex ..
  • #249,746
  • May 29, 2010 8:59am May 29, 2010 8:59am
Quoting kill56
man look at the monthly
classic reversal gives signs before. this among other things. possible i cup forming.. here and chf.. chf is decades in the making.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #249,747
  • May 29, 2010 9:20am May 29, 2010 9:20am
other then a small w .. no sign of reversal yet. but 50% is a powerful support. so if we did have one. the upper tl shown atm is 1.3005 and the next lower one is 1.2037.. as time goes on both descend as well as the #s
more to come
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #249,748
  • May 29, 2010 9:31am May 29, 2010 9:31am
Buon giorno.

What leveal are you saying is the 50%?
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #249,749
  • May 29, 2010 9:37am May 29, 2010 9:37am
if you take out the spike to the left, the rim may be complete now and we are already building the handle.. just another possibility..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #249,750
  • May 29, 2010 9:40am May 29, 2010 9:40am
Quoting Duce
Buon giorno.

What leveal are you saying is the 50%?
same ones for the last 6 months.. 2133 ish


im not in no way saying we are reversing.. im just showing how they develop..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #249,751
  • May 29, 2010 9:52am May 29, 2010 9:52am
Quoting gatorinla
if you take out the spike to the left, the rim may be complete now and we are already building the handle.. just another possibility..
I have trouble in reading that spike sometimes. It revolves/evolves around the elections and the beginning of the market collapse. Or maybe it was George W. Bush's final farwell to the markets...that's a nice "W" we have there.

I can't predict the future like some, but if I stick to my gut feeling and to what I've been saying for years...we need a devaluatoin of assets and a parity of currencies. And once that happens, we will have a stronger greenback appear....or a global conflict of some sort.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #249,752
  • May 29, 2010 10:13am May 29, 2010 10:13am
this one says be cautious until we get below it.. these are the ones that can screw you.. when news comes that should weaken a pair, but dont.. beware, it may want to test the counter trend line. in this case 2930.. atm... . you can see when the white line was first crossed. about the time the Greece bs started. before Greece eu was falling much faster. if you listen to the media, they keep saying it was about Greece.. the chart don't lie. manipulation saved it from falling faster, like the fat finger bs. in april u.s. fed stop currency swaps. but since the test of 2143 has reinstated it. but last week said is will interfere less. we will c.. this and the small w is the only bullish things i see... we have to include the 50% mark... if we go to 2900/3005... it does not mean trend has changed.. its unlikely but its there.. so dont let one get away from you.. new low below 2133 will help decide st direction... long term is still lower..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #249,753
  • May 29, 2010 10:17am May 29, 2010 10:17am
Quoting gatorinla
if you take out the spike to the left, the rim may be complete now and we are already building the handle.. just another possibility..
I know this is old news, but still relevant to the charts.

This is why we had the spike at the end of 2008.
Inserted Video


Can someone tell me how, or if, the US government / FED profited from this swap? 'cause I'm sure they did. I'll bet my last pair of Fruit of the Looms that the Fed sold it's EUROs at the peak and is now calling in its USD dollars. Most of the EZ countries are indebted to the US and now the appreciating greenback is costing those countries more to repay their debts. I'm surprised more countries haven't declared bankruptcy yet.

Can someone tell me how the EURO is going to save itself?
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #249,754
  • May 29, 2010 10:45am May 29, 2010 10:45am
Quoting gatorinla
this one says be cautious until we get below it.. these are the ones that can screw you.. when news comes that should weaken a pair, but dont.. beware, it may want to test the counter trend line. in this case 2930.. atm... . you can see when the white line was first crossed. about the time the Greece bs started. before Greece eu was falling much faster. if you listen to the media, they keep saying it was about Greece.. the chart don't lie. manipulation saved it from falling faster, like the fat finger bs. in april u.s. fed stop currency swaps. but...
Gat agree with your analysis, I think if this £ takes off next week as all the signs are there it should drag the euro up to test the 2900 trendline .China's comment last week of having faith in the euro is bound to slow the fall for the euro and If I were big boy I would want to short it much higher, take out the weak shorts from this level and get people long before exploding southwards, like you say MISDIRECTION.

What you think
  • #249,755
  • Edited 12:51pm May 29, 2010 11:13am | Edited 12:51pm
Just checking monthly chart , yes a cup & handle in the forming very possible from long long times ago and if eu able to/ allowed to retace sufficiently now as 2nd subwave up of big 3 down or at least 1st subwave up of 3 of the 3 may eu go to the end of the 5th expected big down at last otherwise it can simply go to 200ma monthly low 1.1692 as possible full stop down , may 3rd failure , 5th big failure all together & all up bullish continuation beyound imagination next .
From aggrassive nature of recent movements perhaps following the path of the premature ejaculation !may end soon without culmination!
Hope not happen as such .

Note : I open all long position & pendings at possible lows over 1.21 and now just checking ,not know how to read but something gross I marked ) :
3-MONTH EURODOLLARS - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-132741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 05/25/10
commercial highest position holder changed recent week mostly eu futures to long side .so my longs seems not baseless . anyway if bear continued a little for name sake may even retrace next big enough .

3-MONTH EURODOLLARS - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-132741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 05/25/10 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF $1,000,000) OPEN INTEREST: 7,708,165
COMMITMENTS
722,245 540,368 897,428 5348327 5359146 6968000 6796942 740,165 911,223

CHANGES FROM 05/18/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 85,484)
-275,582 17,173 -8,318 428,803 135,857 144,903 144,712 -59,419 -59,228

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
9.4 7.0 11.6 69.4 69.5 90.4 88.2 9.6 11.8

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 269)
48 59 87 129 145 233 247

Link: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #249,756
  • May 29, 2010 1:38pm May 29, 2010 1:38pm
Hello all, hope you're having a good weekend so far.

I just came across an interesting article which could be worth mulling over. Here's an extract from the article :

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sensationalism this is not.
Food for thought for holders of U.S. Treasury bonds? You bet.
To see why, let’s start with a snapshot of the sovereign debt risk metrics of the U.S. government versus the PIIGS on fiscal year 2009 financials:

Sovereign Debt Risk Metrics

United States versus the PIIGS, Fiscal Year 2009

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...ebt-Slide1.gif

The PIIGS are looking at some huge financial imbalances, that much is for sure. But I ask you, do the debt risk metrics of the U.S. government look that much different? Is the debt of the U.S. government, as S&P’s triple-A credit rating suggests, that much more credit worthy than the debt of say Spain, Ireland or even Greece?


-------------------------------------------------------------------------


The full article can be viewed by following this link :

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19714.html
  • #249,757
  • May 29, 2010 1:56pm May 29, 2010 1:56pm
Quoting just fibbing
But I ask you, do the debt risk metrics of the U.S. government look that much different? Is the debt of the U.S. government, as S&P’s triple-A credit rating suggests, that much more credit worthy than the debt of say Spain, Ireland or even Greece?
Whatever... I get so weary of all this ridiculous comparison to other nations no matter who they are.

One solution maybe.... America stays home the next time the world is getting thrashed by Fire, Flood, Tsunami, Earthquake, Uprising, Revolt, Genocide, Oppresion, Etc ad nauseum, and put those funds into solving our very real problems at Home instead of bailing all the naysayers and critics out.

Just being fascetious of course, but I still get weary of this crap.
FUBAR...
  • #249,758
  • May 29, 2010 1:58pm May 29, 2010 1:58pm
The task that Greece has at hand.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...498580652.html

other EZ members feelings hurt..boo hoo

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB2000...950198700.html


edit:i'm not a subscriber no WSJ..it let me read these articles once each but won't let me again...sry if they don't give the whole article
  • #249,759
  • May 29, 2010 2:08pm May 29, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting ak4x
Whatever... I get so weary of all this ridiculous comparison to other nations no matter who they are.

One solution maybe.... America stays home the next time the world is getting thrashed by Fire, Flood, Tsunami, Earthquake, Uprising, Revolt, Genocide, Oppresion, Etc ad nauseum, and put those funds into solving our very real problems at Home instead of bailing all the naysayers and critics out.

Just being fascetious of course, but I still get weary of this crap.
You got my vote, ak4x. Just so long as you send a couple of military contracts my way, give me some insider information on some stocks, bail me out if need be and give me a few oil wells for my birthday.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #249,760
  • May 29, 2010 2:15pm May 29, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting ak4x
Whatever... I get so weary of all this ridiculous comparison to other nations no matter who they are.
Exactly. Because the comparison can not be made. There is no "level playing field" to play that game on because the USD is the world's reserve currency. Which makes the USA and the Fed, specifically, the world's banker. I am not expressing a USA! USA! jingoistic sentiment here, just a fact.

Remember (jeez) just a few months ago it seems - all the talk of replacing the USD reserve status with something else, gold, a basket of currencies - including the yuan, etc, etc? Do you hear that tune anymore now? No.

So does any of this help you know whether the E/U will head north or south on a given day/week/month? Is the answer already on your charts?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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