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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #9,581
  • May 21, 2010 12:45am May 21, 2010 12:45am
this gon be good one
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  • #9,582
  • May 21, 2010 12:48am May 21, 2010 12:48am
weekly breakout? thems the weekly hi/lo
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  • #9,583
  • May 21, 2010 1:24am May 21, 2010 1:24am
free trade
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  • #9,584
  • Edited May 22, 2010 6:13am May 21, 2010 6:41am | Edited May 22, 2010 6:13am
Im short - 3 positions - entry points by the yellow ellipse (there were 2 IB's by the first ellipse - I took them both - first long and then short). Most of the positions are small given the volatility and size of the IB's

Up about 600 raw pips at the moment on this........

From what I read most "expert analysts" were calling for a depreciation of the Yen vs USD........but then again back in december when the EU was around 1.45/44 Goldman Sach was looking for a rise in the Euro to 1.55 and even had a trade recommendation out on Bloomberg to go long with @ 1.44 with and SL at 1.43


So another important factor while playing IB's is not to read the news..........read the comics instead

Remember, regardless of what most "experts" say, you do not know:
1. When a trend will start;
2. When a trend will end
3. When a ranging market will turn into a trending one.

All we really have are probabilities and expected values, so unless you have a public track record of actually taking your calls, I am pretty critical of anyone who tries to predicted anything - it's fun to watch the reaction
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  • #9,585
  • May 21, 2010 7:11pm May 21, 2010 7:11pm
Quoting razorboy
So another important factor while playing IB's is not to read the news..........read the comics instead

You could almost say that knowing that you do not know what will happen, is an edge.
Good Trading
  • #9,586
  • May 21, 2010 9:49pm May 21, 2010 9:49pm
Its only an "edge" if you have system (a mechanism that combines entry and exit timing along with a sizing method) with a statistical edge otherwise you are randomly swatting at flies.

When I first started trading I was constantly trying to fade breakouts based on some dipshit harmonics patterns....lots of fun......not. The problem was that I was playing without an edge, well, actually i didnt really even know what an edge was.

Now that I have internalized the concept of the edge and understand how you build trading systems around it, I am always dumbstruck by morons who write "expert" analysis, usually in hindsight.

If anyone can decipher this gobbly gook and build real trading plan with a statistical edge out of, I would love to hear it. If this stuff was written on paper, you could use it for toilet paper........that's about what its worth

I'll stick to the comics...............or maybe playboy

Quoting aud

You could almost say that knowing that you do not know what will happen, is an edge.
  • #9,587
  • May 23, 2010 3:30am May 23, 2010 3:30am
Would this be a good IB to trade on NZD/USD pair? Daily Chart. Looking for upmove.
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" THE BRAIN IS LIKE A PARACHUTE ... WORKS BEST WHEN OPEN "
  • #9,588
  • May 23, 2010 8:37am May 23, 2010 8:37am
Razor,

Thank you for your insight. If you can take the time, I would like to ask you some questions:

1)How are you determining whether to go long or short from the IB? Are you taking the opposite sideof your MA since you are using that as SL?

2)From your USDJPY image on March 24th, your entry was long after the IB. Were you then stopped out on April 16th when crossing the 25 MA?
After March 24th entry, did you enter again on the March 29th IB?
Did you take a long position on April 29th IB?

Apologies for the interrogative questions, and if you have covered this previously.
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  • #9,589
  • May 24, 2010 12:44am May 24, 2010 12:44am
If there is an IB, I take it. But dont just take my word for it, you need to do your own backtesting, you may find that filtering IB's by sunspots, days of the week or planetary positions works for you. I'm a simplton, so I keep it simple

Dont get hung up on the 25 ma per se.........your trail doesnt really matter as long as it is long enough

If an Ib is above the MA, I go long. If I am stopped out, I do not re enter if price whipsaws

If an IB is below the MA, I go short, same re-entry rules apply

The only time I re-enter is if the IB is touching the MA. Then I will re-enter as often as needed, in either direction.

Long above, short below.

you could probably accomplish the same by saying if price moves XX% above the MA i go long and add to the position every XX% move, giving each position an SL equal to 1 to 2% of your bank roll

And the reverse for short

Wait, i think someone already did that.....fcuk, I am giving away all the secrets here

Quoting Hinkognito
Razor,

Thank you for your insight....
  • #9,590
  • May 24, 2010 11:29pm May 24, 2010 11:29pm
I moved my stop to my entry when i closed half of my position for 3:1 (at the place marked risk * 6)
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  • #9,591
  • May 25, 2010 2:08am May 25, 2010 2:08am
http://www.informedtrades.com/attach...gbpshort_2-jpg
  • #9,592
  • May 25, 2010 9:22pm May 25, 2010 9:22pm
Many Thanks for the responses. It is much appreciated.

Quoting razorboy
If there is an IB, I take it....
  • #9,593
  • Edited 6:52am May 26, 2010 6:39am | Edited 6:52am
Razorboy;

If i understand correctly...

I see you use daily bars. How long do you consider an IB valid?

Lets say you enter on a daily IB, and your position is stopped out the next couple of days, then the price hits again on the same IB, do you re-enter or do you only use IB once?

Do you put yout SL at BE or do you take half off, and if yes, when?

Also, i looked at the EURUSD daily chart and wanted to ask another question:


Thanks.
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  • #9,594
  • May 27, 2010 1:18am May 27, 2010 1:18am
stopped on the gbp/usd for 0 loss

the eur from friday open has been kicking around for a while got in at 2602 still holdin on
  • #9,595
  • May 27, 2010 6:16am May 27, 2010 6:16am
there is nothing magical about inside bars. They just serve as an easy way to measure off risk. How you use them in practice and questions like how long are they valid for and how often you re-enter all depends on your back testing.

All you have to do is come up with a method to use them that gives you a positive mathematical expectancy when you trade with your based number of units. If you get a positive mathematical expectancy in your back testing, then you can start applying money management





Quoting johto
Razorboy;

If i understand correctly...

I see you use daily bars. How long do you consider an IB valid?

Lets say you enter on a daily IB, and your position is stopped out the next couple of days, then the price hits again on the same IB, do you re-enter or do you only use IB once?

Do you put yout SL at BE or do you take half off, and if yes, when?

Also, i looked at the EURUSD daily chart and wanted to ask another question:


Thanks.
  • #9,596
  • May 27, 2010 6:33am May 27, 2010 6:33am
Quoting johto
Razorboy;

If i understand correctly...

I see you use daily bars. How long do you consider an IB valid?

Lets say you enter on a daily IB, and your position is stopped out the next couple of days, then the price hits again on the same IB, do you re-enter or do you only use IB once?

Do you put yout SL at BE or do you take half off, and if yes, when?

Also, i looked at the EURUSD daily chart and wanted to ask another question:


Thanks.
My opinion is that once an inside bar has broken, it is not valid. The reason I would give is that an inside bar represents compression of the market, with a likelihood of a substantial break out. This does not mean the trade will not work, of course. So we have to be careful about targets, especially if the break out is counter trend.

The second example is an inside bar after a clear bounce off a support level. The pin bar tells us this is a rejection. We have a choice.
(a) We trade counter trend off the inside bar even though it looks like a strong downtrend.
(b) We trade with the trend off the inside bar even though it's obviously straight into a support level.
(c) We leave dodgy looking situations like this alone.
Gone to a better place
  • #9,597
  • May 28, 2010 8:55am May 28, 2010 8:55am
Quoting smikester
My opinion is that once an inside bar has broken, it is not valid
that's how i feel. once an IB is broken its just not the same. sure it represents a point in the past where there was a battle but after it's been busted its busted in my eyes

i guess the only exception for me is if its a strong downtrend on the daily, and price has been retracing, then its a down day and price tries to break the IB north but then comes back down that same bar i'll enter it south for sure if its acting strong like
  • #9,598
  • May 28, 2010 4:31pm May 28, 2010 4:31pm
feelings have nothing to do with this. It all comes back to your back testing. This is just a game of probablities. You just need to define the rules that give you a positive mathematical expectation over a large number of trades.

Personally, silly concepts of S/R have no place in my trading methodology. Being a trend trader, I am looking for price to go thru "S or R", so to me they are useless, but if you can operationally define S/R and work it into a system, all the power to you




Quoting frankkn
that's how i feel. once an IB is broken its just not the same. sure it represents a point in the past where there was a battle but after it's been busted its busted in my eyes

i guess the only exception for me is if its a strong downtrend on the daily, and price has been retracing, then its a down day and price tries to break the IB north but then comes back down that same bar i'll enter it south for sure if its acting strong like
  • #9,599
  • May 29, 2010 5:34am May 29, 2010 5:34am
.. Anyone that wants to join me in NYC or my house in Ct to watch how I trade is welcomed. While the weather holds out I try my best to trade on my boat presently kept in City Island. If your from NYC/CT you know where that is. PM or just call me at 917-578-9986. See you later and let the fun begin.[/quote]

Hello James!
I thank you so much for this post.
I've never been to America in my life. So, if your proposition is still valid, I will be very happy to seize the chance you are offering here and plan a visit to your country and have a trading session alongside you.

Thank you in advance for your generosity,

Yiehom
Patience is magic
  • #9,600
  • May 30, 2010 10:18am May 30, 2010 10:18am
Quoting razorboy
feelings have nothing to do with this. It all comes back to your back testing. This is just a game of probablities. You just need to define the rules that give you a positive mathematical expectation over a large number of trades.

Personally, silly concepts of S/R have no place in my trading methodology. Being a trend trader, I am looking for price to go thru "S or R", so to me they are useless, but if you can operationally define S/R and work it into a system, all the power to you
razorboy

are you addressing your comments about s/r to me?

if so then my response to you is that i have been recently working on a way to "operationally define s/r" in my journal at informedtrades

i took the idea from the friendlier of the two razors we have in this thread

he had the highs and lows of the current week on his chart, so i took that idea and took it a little further by adding last weeks high low and close as well as this weeks open price. i color code them.

i don't use them for entry, i use them to get a visual "feel" for current momentum

i appreciate the thoughts and ideas that you shared but i was a bit put off by the negativity
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