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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #15,821
  • May 25, 2010 9:52am May 25, 2010 9:52am
Quoting Mary Silvert
but ..... today demolished the Asian stock market with that comment on war!
Perhaps that was the objective?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #15,822
  • May 25, 2010 9:52am May 25, 2010 9:52am
I just canceled my Short position with a small profit after reading "Consumer Confidence Index Rises More Than Expected In May"
Will this news raise the USD today to make a retracement of recent drop or it does not give any effect? Yesterday Home Sales up quite high, but then the european crisis back to take over.
Now I am a bit confuse Should I go short or long
  • #15,823
  • May 25, 2010 9:56am May 25, 2010 9:56am
Quoting wibitiens
I just canceled my Short position with a small profit after reading "Consumer Confidence Index Rises More Than Expected In May"
Will this news raise the USD today to make a retracement of recent drop or it does not give any effect? Yesterday Home Sales up quite high, but then the european crisis back to take over.
Now I am a bit confuse Should I go short or long

IS VERY HARD TO KNOW WHERE TO GO!

NOW DO NOT KNOW WHAT TO SAY!
  • #15,824
  • May 25, 2010 9:57am May 25, 2010 9:57am
Quoting Mary Silvert

is coming down! (89.81 . . . 89,70 . . . . 89, 60 . . . . ??? >>>> . . . . . .)
if today (88.xx), we have more cuts ahead / down........!
but ... during three days does not meet (88.xx), I will buy ..... right?
I'm relying on your opinion!
It won't happen today, I think. Yes we all buy if the third day reach 88.xx and doesn't break it. If the third day still dun test at least 88.50, wait for candle pattern confirmation.
  • #15,825
  • May 25, 2010 10:00am May 25, 2010 10:00am
Quoting Usdjpy
It won't happen today, I think. Yes we all buy if the third day reach 88.xx and doesn't break it. If the third day still dun test at least 88.50, wait for candle pattern confirmation.
UNDERSTANDING OK !
OUR MASTER! With all due respect!
  • #15,826
  • May 25, 2010 10:01am May 25, 2010 10:01am
Quoting Mary Silvert
appears that the JPY is overbought?
Signs of exhaustion?? be?

someone can give his opinion on the daily chart?
Hi Mary,

Exhaustion does not necessarily equals bullish.

Though if one exclude the current bearish sentiment on europe credit and just look at the charts, then weekly is bear, but the daily has an exhaustion candle (which is highlighted on my chart) - if we fail to make new lows (ie continue the trend) then we may go back to test the high of the mentioned exhaustion candle, which is 9190. And then at that point revisit the conditions.

Note it is a possible scenario.

Cheers
J
  • #15,827
  • May 25, 2010 10:09am May 25, 2010 10:09am
May 25 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may weaken toward 88 yen, near the 2010 low recorded earlier this month, after falling below long-term moving averages, said Pak Lai Ng, a technical analyst in Singapore at Forecast Pte. The dollar slid to 87.95 yen on May 6 and touched 88.14 on March 4, Bloomberg data show. The greenback declined to 88.97 yen on May 20, below the 100-day moving average of 91.52 yen and the 200-day moving average of 91.09 yen, Ng said. Daily momentum indicators such as the moving average convergence/divergence, or MACD, also signal the dollar may slide versus the yen, he said.....

More at bloomberg.com
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #15,828
  • May 25, 2010 10:10am May 25, 2010 10:10am
Wew ... It's really going up, 89.69
Lucky I went out
Hum ... I 'll wait for a while to day.
But I am sure thing will go worse
  • #15,829
  • May 25, 2010 10:11am May 25, 2010 10:11am
Quoting I like steak
Hi Mary,

Exhaustion does not necessarily equals bullish.

Though if one exclude the current bearish sentiment on europe credit and just look at the charts, then weekly is bear, but the daily has an exhaustion candle (which is highlighted on my chart) - if we fail to make new lows (ie continue the trend) then we may go back to test the high of the mentioned exhaustion candle, which is 9190. And then at that point revisit the conditions.

Note it is a possible scenario.

Cheers
J
PERFECT EXPLANATION
THANK YOU

Where to go , with LOTS OF WILL WIN! (QUOTE OF THE DAY)
  • #15,830
  • May 25, 2010 10:18am May 25, 2010 10:18am
Quoting Usdjpy
If it doesn't close above 91.00, expect it to test the downside for many times.
This is still true.
  • #15,831
  • May 25, 2010 10:18am May 25, 2010 10:18am
3.20am....time for sleep. Trade safe.........
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #15,832
  • May 25, 2010 10:23am May 25, 2010 10:23am
Quoting Usdjpy
This is still true.
pending motions.

You studied very graphical analysis?
which your education? university? specialist?
sorry for the questions ..
  • #15,833
  • May 25, 2010 10:37am May 25, 2010 10:37am
Quoting Mary Silvert
pending motions.

You studied very graphical analysis?
which your education? university? specialist?
sorry for the questions ..
I have very high qualifications in business but I chose to quit my full-time job 5 years ago. (USD100K p.a. job) Have been trading FX ever since. It's the best career decision I've ever made. I started trading with USD10k, now my account is so big that I only trust banks to handle my transactions.
  • #15,834
  • May 25, 2010 10:38am May 25, 2010 10:38am
Quoting FX-Petra
Still holding 1 short for a breakdown---Tp still @ 86.00. I've been in this trade for almost 3 months. Took 1/2 2 weeks ago with the big spike down. Holding the rest. Good luck and good trades to all.

Regards

Still holding..... Tempting to take some nice profit here, but I am sticking to my trade plan. 86.00 is still a viable target.

Good trades to all,
  • #15,835
  • May 25, 2010 11:54am May 25, 2010 11:54am
Quoting Usdjpy
I have very high qualifications in business but I chose to quit my full-time job 5 years ago. (USD100K p.a. job) Have been trading FX ever since. It's the best career decision I've ever made. I started trading with USD10k, now my account is so big that I only trust banks to handle my transactions.
That's very impressive !!!


Ok ... I am shorting again now.
  • #15,836
  • May 25, 2010 3:03pm May 25, 2010 3:03pm
Quoting traderlivel
thank you for reply, I already close at 89.50, but my trading range is 89.30-15 to 90.00-20. let's see comsumer confidence.
trading range was almost right from 89.30 to 90.20, but I just got 35 pips of them. I am gonna sleep until tokyo open. Japan is 5:01 am. Good luck for your trade!
  • #15,837
  • May 25, 2010 4:18pm May 25, 2010 4:18pm
IMHO, by the long term perspective,
this is a time to start accumulate positions against the JPY.
There is a high risk of "black swan".
Rotation and military events in the Pacific region can dramatically undermine this currency of refuge.
  • #15,838
  • May 25, 2010 7:34pm May 25, 2010 7:34pm
The Daily is playing out as expected for now (see chart), but it's too early to call a reversal yet, although looking at the chart below it seems to be running out of bear power..........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: japday3.jpg Size: 109 KB
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #15,839
  • May 25, 2010 8:06pm May 25, 2010 8:06pm
I was in short position and I thought that the bear still continue. But finally the "technical correction rebound" occurred. Analyst said that its already over sold
  • #15,840
  • May 25, 2010 8:18pm May 25, 2010 8:18pm
Quoting wibitiens
I was in short position and I thought that the bear still continue. But finally the "technical correction rebound" occurred. Analyst said that its already over sold
Even when it's technically oversold, that doesn't mean that it can't continue to sell. For example, the eur/usd has been well oversold for quite some time, yet it continues to sell!

The usd/jpy may resume it's bear direction....we have to trade things as we see them. I kind of expect it to have another go at breaking the lower trendline on the daily chart, but I will take a small long if it trys to break the trendline but fails.

For me, this is a difficult time because there is no way to know whether a continuation of the bear trend is imminent, or whether a reversal is on the horizon.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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