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  • #12,381
  • May 21, 2010 3:40pm May 21, 2010 3:40pm
Well, we got less than 20 minutes to go, but I thought I'd get a jump start. The months not over yet, but price is trading below the 20/50 and has been that way for quite some time. Cable broke down this month after breaching the April low.

When it comes to the boss, last week's candle/bar was inside the "fat-finger" candle/bar and broke down over the course of this week. Price has managed to find support around 1.4228, forming a weak-looking doji, which may lead to a retracement.

Finally, the worker hints at some kind of retracement as well with a bullish engulfing candle/bar. The same can be said on all the major pairs though. I don't know how much momentum will be involved, but I'd be looking to fill some wellies if there is a bearish signal around the 1.47 to 1.49 area. Could the elastic band effect come into play here with the 20? We'll have to wait and see. So far, these bounces have been really weak. Fib confluence could come into play as well. Just got to wait and see.
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"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #12,382
  • May 21, 2010 7:30pm May 21, 2010 7:30pm
Quoting Flem26
Well, we got less than 20 minutes to go, but I thought I'd get a jump start. The months not over yet, but price is trading below the 20/50 and has been that way for quite some time. Cable broke down this month after breaching the April low.

When it comes to the boss, last week's candle/bar was inside the "fat-finger" candle/bar and broke down over the course of this week. Price has managed to find support around 1.4228, forming a weak-looking doji, which may lead to a retracement.

Finally, the worker hints at some kind of retracement as...
What I like about the cable chart is that the boss chart PA finds support aroung 1.4210 and resistence around 1.403---both BRNs.

Then, worker chart has resistence level around 1.4800 another BRN in addition to being right on the 20. Looks like it could be a fairly strong move up before the bottom falls again.
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  • #12,383
  • Edited 5:33am May 22, 2010 4:39am | Edited 5:33am
Quoting elitejets
If EURUSD closes the week above 1.2594 it will be a bullish piercing line candle (Reversal pattern) on the weekly chart
Hi Nicola,
I have problem with piercing line recognition may be I am missing a point somewhere. As per my understanding via Pring candle should have opened below the last candle with GAP and then close above half way the last candle. But last weeks close and this weeks open are same.

I know it hasn't closed above 1.2594 therefore no piercing line but I am just curious about opening of the candle.
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  • #12,384
  • May 22, 2010 5:56am May 22, 2010 5:56am
Hi all.
Okay, here is my attempt at an analysis of the current situation with EUR/USD (charts below). I'd be grateful if you could comment on my analysis and also on my placement of S/R lines as I'm still very much learning how to do this (well, and everything else really! ). Okay, here goes:

Big Boss has been in a down trend since December last year but is now at major psych support level of 1.26. However it has broken through this level and dropped to 1.2143 during the crazy trading last week but then retraced. Everything is still pointing down however

On the Boss the break through 1.26 and retracement is clear.

On the Worker price retraced for 3 days, has once again punched through the 1.26, this time in the opposite direction (almost making contact with the 20 EMA). Price also penetrated the 50% fib level but failed to hit the critical 61.8% level (but has my fib been drawn correctly?). Price closed below 1.26 at 1.2569 on my data feed.

So, as I see it, depending on what PA does in the next day or so this could be a very good point for a short entry. If so, my next major S is at 1.18.

I'm sure I've missed loads but would appreciate any comments.
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When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #12,385
  • May 22, 2010 6:33am May 22, 2010 6:33am
Hallo all , I post this analysis for learning PASR and appreciate comments. I have been reading about 200 pages of this precious thread.

Big Boss : forming a huge candle down through major support 141.00. Took out the last monthly low and the upswing of two month before. Now at 130.00 major support.
Boss : looks like forming a downward channel and broke lower TL
Worker: went down through 141.00 two weeks ago , tested the level as resistance on 10.5.2010. Now price is at 130.00 major support. BEEB closed below 130 , friday candle closed above .

MA 20 is below MA 50 on all three TF`s and price is below 20 MA. So Big Boss , Boss and Worker in total agreement on downtrend IMO. I am watching PA at 130.00. May be we see some consolidation after these strong and wild moves . A retracement to Worker MA 20 would be nice and PA at PPZ 135.40

Carlo
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  • #12,386
  • May 22, 2010 11:24am May 22, 2010 11:24am
Hey I found a new pattern, which I'll call "Dangling Legs"!.

Both legs have been in the water but find it a bit cold, body firmly out and having second thoughts about this pool.

I leave it to your imagination what the candle in the middle is...
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Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #12,387
  • May 22, 2010 7:05pm May 22, 2010 7:05pm
Quoting elitejets
The Oz economy is not really in bad shape at all but it is tied to the Chinese economy because they export to them.
The Chinese stock market rolled over many weeks ago and the Chinese Govt have been doing lots of money tightening, trying to rein in a big real estate bubble....
The Oz economy suffers a little from Governments that treat the people like they live in the land of Oz. Many know that it is called "the lucky country" but few know that the author who coined the term meant it disparagingly.

In the GFC the government spent hugely from the prior governments surpluses promoting the purchasing of flat screen tvs. They also doubled the prop-up on first home purchases. The nett of that is that rather than unwinding debt Aussies continued to grow it.

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

So as well as having a dependence on Chinese resource purchasing (the bizarre thing is that despite record demand and record prices Aussies as a nation still spent more each month than they earned) there is a debt mountain that will pop in a nasty way if there is a next pin applied to the balloon.

A "major" appliance retailer, Clive Peters, went bust this week and after months of news reports that the Aussie economy was rocking along it turns out that the big retailers have been experiencing 2008 (gfc was late here) level pain this year.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/fears...0522-w345.html
  • #12,388
  • May 22, 2010 11:19pm May 22, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting kiwi_trader
The Oz economy suffers a little from Governments that treat the people like they live in the land of Oz....
Just like Canada then ...
Thanks J

For your weekend entertainment here is a game to illustrate the Canadian housing bubble which is still full throttle:
http://www.crackshackormansion.com/original.html
  • #12,389
  • May 23, 2010 12:25am May 23, 2010 12:25am
Quoting elitejets
Just like Canada then ...
Thanks J

For your weekend entertainment here is a game to illustrate the Canadian housing bubble which is still full throttle:
http://www.crackshackormansion.com/original.html
I saw that a number of weeks ago. I think I only missed one. Funny stuff.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #12,390
  • May 23, 2010 3:32am May 23, 2010 3:32am
[quote=kiwi_trader;3747119]
So as well as having a dependence on Chinese resource purchasing /quote]


Thanks for this good info. Oz are dependent on Chinese, Chinese are dependent on US consumers and therefore when America sneezes world catches cold.

We will have to wait for de-coupling.
  • #12,391
  • May 23, 2010 6:10am May 23, 2010 6:10am
Wanted to make an analysis of one pair I did not look before much, so no bias, just looking for S/R and PA.

Big Boss: Price stopped going down 12.2008. Since then making HL`s and HH`s . The long down candle of may took out the last HL for small 27 pips so far. MA 20 is still below MA 50 with price below MA 20. So no clear direction of the Big Boss. Another close above 89.00 or 90.00 major ( ? ) resistance and a HH would show further uptrend.
A close below 80.00 support and price reaching below first HL 78.53 would show downtrend.
Boss: MA 20 is above MA 50 . Price is below the MA`s , broke support 89.00 and lower TL , closed below. Just bounced of support 83.00.
Worker: I see many bounces at the 83.00 support , so PA will show the way . When price goes up from here to continue the immediate upmove from Big Boss and Boss we might see a retest of the Boss lower TL.
Price is below MA 20 , and 20 below MA 50 on the Worker so the immediate move is down. But as said before we have to see PA at 80.00
for stressfree short trades IMO.
All comments welcome , I`m a learning.
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  • #12,392
  • May 23, 2010 8:48am May 23, 2010 8:48am
Quoting strat
Maybe Blackeagle or our other Oz members can confirm but I heard a rumour that the Oz economy is in a much worse state than anyone cared to admit and some are even saying it is teetering on the brink of a housing price bubble and mortgage crisis.

But then, I know nothing!
Late reply, but i can tell you first hand that there is a property bubble here and with the Government modifying the foreign investment rules to start slowing the inflated prices, its only a matter of time that the bubble burst .

Ofcourse when i tell people this , i have to listen to the same crap "oooh i dunno it might not" .. however history teaches us better than this.
  • #12,393
  • May 23, 2010 8:57am May 23, 2010 8:57am
Quoting simpleman
Hi Nicola,
I have problem with piercing line recognition may be I am missing a point somewhere. As per my understanding via Pring candle should have opened below the last candle with GAP and then close above half way the last candle. But last weeks close and this weeks open are same.

I know it hasn't closed above 1.2594 therefore no piercing line but I am just curious about opening of the candle.
Thats true simpleman but with FX being 24 hrs you don't get the gap. To me that is still a bullish piercing line.
  • #12,394
  • May 23, 2010 9:46am May 23, 2010 9:46am
test. having troubles trying to post, working through with support. apologies for wasting space if this goes through but i cant delete.
  • #12,395
  • Edited 10:45am May 23, 2010 10:09am | Edited 10:45am
Quoting elitejets
Thats true simpleman but with FX being 24 hrs you don't get the gap. To me that is still a bullish piercing line.
Thankyou very much Nicola you have sorted big problem of mine as I couldn't find text book pattern of piercing line in previous years charts but I could see the opposite "Dark Cloud".
  • #12,396
  • May 23, 2010 2:10pm May 23, 2010 2:10pm
Quoting elitejets
Thats true simpleman but with FX being 24 hrs you don't get the gap. To me that is still a bullish piercing line.
Anyone trading fibre might like to know that the Spanish govt had to bail out a large Spanish bank on Saturday.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle7133957.ece
  • #12,397
  • Edited 3:03pm May 23, 2010 2:48pm | Edited 3:03pm
Quoting simpleman
Thanks for this good info. Oz are dependent on Chinese, Chinese are dependent on US consumers and therefore when America sneezes world catches cold.

We will have to wait for de-coupling.
Fundamentals are messy things (I don't use them to trade ... they're just interesting).

Three things I think are worth being careful of here (not necessarily suggesting that you are not ):
- a US that is not much better + a cold in Europe would also do it which helps to explain the last couple of weeks.
- the coupling has lags in it because it is a supply chain and sometimes such lags take 6-12 months to play out.
- couplings overlap like flight from risk and sovereign debt crisis and seem to do so in unexpected ways.

One of the reasons I'm a technical trader rather than an fundamental trader is that each crisis seems well spotted and timed with hindsight and missed by 99.95% in foresight - but price movements are timely and (fairly) truthful.



(and that was a cool video Nic, I wasn't terribly good on Canadian real estate)
  • #12,398
  • May 24, 2010 3:22am May 24, 2010 3:22am
[quote=kiwi_trader;3747756]Fundamentals are messy things (I don't use them to trade ... they're just interesting).

One of the reasons I'm a technical trader rather than an fundamental trader is that each crisis seems well spotted and timed with hindsight and missed by 99.95% in foresight - but price movements are timely and (fairly) truthful.


Well. I agree with Kiwi Trader. Funky metals can be interesting but not really what this thread is about IMHO. Sometimes they can give a sense of trend, but mostly I find they confuse, distract the mind from following PASR, which is what we are learning to use here. And the same as trading too many pairs can overwhelm the mind, so too, can excess fundis can do the same (plus the sense of panic that any minute we are going to have another super-recession ).

For you to consider.
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #12,399
  • May 24, 2010 3:54am May 24, 2010 3:54am
Quoting Spinner

Well. I agree with Kiwi Trader.
And I agree with you spinner. That was just a discussion for the purpose of discussion and nothing else. I have never traded on funnymentals basis and we know de-coupling will take 20 years atleast.

Lets' get back on to learn PASR.
  • #12,400
  • May 24, 2010 4:23am May 24, 2010 4:23am
Quoting stewrigh
Anyone trading fibre might like to know that the Spanish govt had to bail out a large Spanish bank on Saturday.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle7133957.ece

Sometimes the funnymentals do work out
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