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  • #12,321
  • May 20, 2010 4:19am May 20, 2010 4:19am
[quote=No1Optimist;3740945]----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

One matter I have been pondering is doing away with the MA lines completely; and doing HH, HL, LH, LL analysis to determine trends instead.

I would appreciate your feedback on this idea.

With recent volatility, I think that the lagging nature of MA is exacerbated, and I am wondering if this is making them worse than useless.

I would appreciate your feedback on this idea.

I think that reliance on MA lines for trend analysis lead me to making wrong conclusions, which I would not have made in their absence.

Hi No1OPtimisthttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Good to see you asking questions. With regard to MA's, earlier in the thread there is a number of posts where Strat explains the MA's in more detail, there are questions relating to the moving averages that need to be answered which will give you some indication of price/trend direction. The questions relate to slope of MA, increasing differential, price between 20/50, MA's embracing ect. And especially he urges to study what the price is doing when in the vicinity of MA, just like the vicinity of SR, as one must not forget that the MA's do act as a SR.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #12,322
  • May 20, 2010 4:23am May 20, 2010 4:23am
Quoting Money Magnet
To me it looks like the train hit emergency brakes, filled up quickly and headed north.

I am looking for a reversal or lets say hoping for one to the 1.4350 area.
then proceeding to buy my ticket.

I do realise there is a day and a bit for Boss close and 7 days for big boss.
.
But I will wait for everything in alignment, it may be a retracement.
  • #12,323
  • May 20, 2010 4:45am May 20, 2010 4:45am
Alexandra, Nicola or Razorjack
Being our resident fundies - what is driving down the aussie & NZ dollars so rapidly ??
I havent seen any bad news coming out for these two - is this all about risk aversion and running to the US dollar safety ??
  • #12,324
  • May 20, 2010 7:01am May 20, 2010 7:01am
Hi all

Been away for a couple of weeks cruising the wilds of the Kruger Park checking out the wild life.

Last month I only managed a tiny profit call it breakeven, but beats the hell out of my former loss making strategy.

I managed to sneak a small profit so far this month, but still find myself taking too many trades, just have to learn to be more and more picky and patient. I WILL get there.

I am in one trade now having just been filled with the GBPJPY going thru those lows at the 130 S. I expect to get a bit of testing of that S as R, on the other hand it could go sailing on by, who knows! If I get nice PA on a test I can add to this.

Larry
  • #12,325
  • May 20, 2010 9:04am May 20, 2010 9:04am
Quoting Raje$h
Hi Strat,

Wouldn't it be better to be stopped out with a smaller (200-300 pips) loss and re-enter with a discount?

I am struggling with my strategy for placing trailing stop losses (for booking partial profit to satisfy the gremlins); hence the question.

Cheers,
Rajesh
Wouldn't it be better to be stopped out with a smaller (200-300 pips) loss and re-enter with a discount?

I am struggling with my strategy for placing trailing stop losses (for booking partial profit to satisfy the gremlins); hence the question.

This is a SL for my fat city trend trades from last year.

My recommendation for booking initial profits has been explained many times on the thread.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,326
  • May 20, 2010 9:35am May 20, 2010 9:35am
Quoting No1Optimist
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------...
One matter I have been pondering is doing away with the MA lines completely; and doing HH, HL, LH, LL analysis to determine trends instead.

I have spent huge amounts of time going through the thread, (well over 750 pages now

These two statements are in direct conflict with each other!

“IF” you have read and UNDERSTOOD the thread as opposed to “going through the thread”, you should know that our MAs are very, very valuable tools to us BUT you have to know how, when and where to use them. Again, this is all in the thread.

Our MA tools are an integral component of PASR.

Trading PASR without MAs is like driving at night without your lights on.

As for using HH, HL, LH and LL analysis, this is also an integral component of PASR and again, is explained many times in the thread.

With recent volatility, I think that the lagging nature of MA is exacerbated, and I am wondering if this is making them worse than useless.

The recent volatility screws EVERYTHING up! Everything and anything that tracks, monitors or uses PRICE (indicators, black boxes, systems etc) gets knocked out of its “rhythm” and needs several days of “back to average ranges” to get back to equilibrium.

Our MAs are actually the LEAST affected by this volatility as they are “smoothed” out with the averaging effect of the MA calculation.

I think that reliance on MA lines for trend analysis lead me to making wrong conclusions, which I would not have made in their absence.

Using the MAs is an integral part of trend analysis as is fully explained in the thread.

The PROBLEM is not with the MAs but YOUR interpretation of them.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,327
  • May 20, 2010 9:53am May 20, 2010 9:53am
Quoting Money Magnet
To me it looks like the train hit emergency brakes, filled up quickly and headed north.

I am looking for a reversal or lets say hoping for one to the 1.4350 area.
then proceeding to buy my ticket.

I do realise there is a day and a bit for Boss close and 7 days for big boss.

Support to resistance
My problem with this pair is do I have these lines correct.
Comments appreciated.
I am looking for a reversal or lets say hoping for one to the 1.4350 area.
then proceeding to buy my ticket.

Why 1.4350 and ticket to where?

Technically, in terms of LL and LH, across all our time frames, this pair is STILL in a downtrend and will be until it gets to 1.5400.

There is confluence of stiff resistance there so I’m waiting.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,328
  • May 20, 2010 10:31am May 20, 2010 10:31am
Hi Strat,

I know I have to trade using PASR but is it true USDCAD follows USDCHF?

Please see the BOSS chart attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,329
  • May 20, 2010 10:45am May 20, 2010 10:45am
Quoting simpleman
Hi Strat,

I know I have to trade using PASR but is it true USDCAD follows USDCHF?

Please see the BOSS chart attached.
No.

CAD is a commodity currency whereas CHF is pure monetary.

The current correlation as of today is:

Worker 71.1%

Boss 16.8%

Knowing this, how will this help you trade either pair?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,330
  • May 20, 2010 10:52am May 20, 2010 10:52am
Quoting strat
No.

CAD is a commodity currency whereas CHF is pure monetary.

The current correlation as of today is:

Worker 71.1%

Boss 16.8%

Knowing this, how will this help you trade either pair?
Thanks Strat, I will just trade what I will see and I will have to see PASR
  • #12,331
  • May 20, 2010 12:00pm May 20, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting strat
I am looking for a reversal or lets say hoping for one to the 1.4350 area.
then proceeding to buy my ticket.

Why 1.4350 and ticket to where?

Technically, in terms of LL and LH, across all our time frames, this pair is STILL in a downtrend and will be until it gets to 1.5400.

There is confluence of stiff resistance there so I’m waiting.
Strat thanks good points, I totally missed the LL LH point in my anaylysis.
I was looking for a retrace to 1.4350 then trading from support to resistance long to 1.54/5
I guess focusing too much on the bars of big boss and boss.
Actually if I actually really began to plan such a trade, I would probably leave it due to such a big stop.

thanks again
Frank
  • #12,332
  • May 20, 2010 3:46pm May 20, 2010 3:46pm
Check the FF Calendar!

Tomorrow there is a BOJ Press Conference, lots of EUR and GBP and a few CAD announcements.

Be careful placing trades prior to these.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,333
  • May 20, 2010 3:53pm May 20, 2010 3:53pm
Quoting Yebisu
Alexandra, Nicola or Razorjack
Being our resident fundies - what is driving down the aussie & NZ dollars so rapidly ??
I havent seen any bad news coming out for these two - is this all about risk aversion and running to the US dollar safety ??
Maybe Blackeagle or our other Oz members can confirm but I heard a rumour that the Oz economy is in a much worse state than anyone cared to admit and some are even saying it is teetering on the brink of a housing price bubble and mortgage crisis.

But then, I know nothing!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,334
  • May 20, 2010 4:30pm May 20, 2010 4:30pm
AUD and NZD sell off is a result of risk aversion from contagion fears='safe' currencies go up, CHF, dollar etc
  • #12,335
  • May 20, 2010 4:46pm May 20, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting Yebisu
Alexandra, Nicola or Razorjack
Being our resident fundies - what is driving down the aussie & NZ dollars so rapidly ??
I havent seen any bad news coming out for these two - is this all about risk aversion and running to the US dollar safety ??
Yebisu
You are watching what was known as the "carry trades" unwinding. Short EURAUD, EURNZD, GPBAUD, GBPNZD or long AUDCHF etc (basically the continental currencies vs the commodity currencies) were the hedge funds favourite macro trade last year and it earned them "carry" because interest rates were higher in AUD & NZD.
Now that the Chinese stock market has gone into bear market territory and stocks here are wobbling and EUR has fallen so far these trades were all liable to a big short squeeze when they liquidated and that is what we are seeing.
  • #12,336
  • May 20, 2010 4:58pm May 20, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting strat
Maybe Blackeagle or our other Oz members can confirm but I heard a rumour that the Oz economy is in a much worse state than anyone cared to admit and some are even saying it is teetering on the brink of a housing price bubble and mortgage crisis.

But then, I know nothing!
The Oz economy is not really in bad shape at all but it is tied to the Chinese economy because they export to them.
The Chinese stock market rolled over many weeks ago and the Chinese Govt have been doing lots of money tightening, trying to rein in a big real estate bubble. Because it is hard to trade China directly many hedge funds have been using AUD as a proxy for China so when that rolls over so does the Aussie.

I think Chinese property prices went up 40% last month, in one month ... gulp. I remember a realtor telling me once to "buy now or I would be priced out forever" haha
  • #12,337
  • May 20, 2010 5:01pm May 20, 2010 5:01pm
Cool info on the EUR/AUD and other carry trade pairs. Thanks.
Quoting elitejets
Yebisu
You are watching what was known as the "carry trades" unwinding....
  • #12,338
  • May 20, 2010 5:58pm May 20, 2010 5:58pm
Quoting elitejets
The Oz economy is not really in bad shape at all but it is tied to the Chinese economy because they export to them.
The Chinese stock market rolled over many weeks ago and the Chinese Govt have been doing lots of money tightening, trying to rein in a big real

But Chinese are still expecting 9%+ growth, Indians are still expecting 8%+ growth and the worldwide GDP has been revised up to 4%+ therefore, OZ will keep doing it better in the days to come.

It is just my opinion.
  • #12,339
  • May 20, 2010 5:58pm May 20, 2010 5:58pm
That makes sense now. I hadnt seen any interest rates changes yet, so I doubted that they would stop the carry trade yet. Oh well, it was a nice ride on those currencies while they lasted.....unless they are reloading....





Quoting elitejets
Yebisu
You are watching what was known as the "carry trades" unwinding. Short EURAUD, EURNZD, GPBAUD, GBPNZD or long AUDCHF etc (basically the continental currencies vs the commodity currencies) were the hedge funds favourite macro trade last year and it earned them "carry" because interest rates were higher in AUD & NZD.
Now that the Chinese stock market has gone into bear market territory and stocks here are wobbling and EUR has fallen so far these trades were all liable to a big short squeeze when they liquidated and that is what we are seeing....
  • #12,340
  • May 20, 2010 6:09pm May 20, 2010 6:09pm
Self Explanatory. Interesting to see if it runs as it did previously. Why should it? Who knows. Cable is approaching heavy support.
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