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  • #246,581
  • May 22, 2010 12:58am May 22, 2010 12:58am
Quoting Tenapenny
10 GOLDEN TRADING RULES FOR SUCCESS IN FUTURES & FOREX TRADING

Good post but risking 10% per trade is way too much for me. 2% is the max risk I take. Protecting capital is the priority, if not, you are gambling.
A trade with a large advantage and 80% winrate out mathematically justifies a much, much larger wager than a more marginal trade with a 30% winrate. 10% isn't "gambling" at all. Any swing trader or slower should be dealing with edges that justify such large wagers. Unless we're trading an environment where our stop might slip significantly, trade size usually comes down to what the trader can stomach.
  • #246,582
  • May 22, 2010 1:53am May 22, 2010 1:53am
Quoting knuckledrag
The market is simply smoke and mirrors. It really does not exist as a real physical exchange some where. It can't open because its not real. We're betting on whether we think the next price offered by the banks will be up or down, and whether or not they can sell {move- transfer- fill} all of their orders at that price. Your not even really part of the market. Its like sitting in the stands at a cock fight betting on the rooster of your choice . When the cock handlers enter the ring your bookie will be back.
That is precisely why most traders lose. Give them all the golden rules you like, give them all the money they need, and most still lose and most here will continue to do so for years. Why?

I've said it before, the real secret is: you ARE part of the market, and the only way to consistently earn from the market, is not to beat it, but to be PART of it. Psychologically, very few can do that. As soon as you start fighting the market, you are psychologically doomed to failure.

Know the market, know yourself. Do gamblers win on a consistent basis? no. they get their occassional windfall. Traders win on a consistent basis. That's why as soon as you accept it's gambling, you are a loser because then you start betting. Ask yourself, why do instutional traders earn. It's because they are part of the market, from inside, not outside.

Why do traders pay large sums to hold a seat on the exchange, in the 'old' days. Because they are part of the market, reading the tape. Treat it as speculation, like buying a pitchfork and exploring for gold in the old gold rush days. Sometimes you hit a dud spot, then sometimes you hit the seem. A risk, like being in any other form of business, only in this one psychology rules. The only way to earn consistently is to be part of it. Now, how do traders become part of it? hmmmm

In a word, psychology. the market is real. those who are part of it earn, i.e. brokers, trading educators, software vendors, and the few who psychologically can be in the inside, while being on the outside. The yin and the yang.
  • #246,583
  • May 22, 2010 2:04am May 22, 2010 2:04am
Quoting fontu
Morning to all .
Yes , it was no mistake ,a blunder. Till breach 1,2456 shorts more or less with even HS inverted clearly ,still ok as no confirmation of the trend change but after that it was all bull to take & not to care the breakout even in the consolidation phase . But done the opposit as of habbit of shorts ,tried to take the possible break out with shorts, many times failed ultimately, trying to take 50 -1oo pips & lost many hundreds of them .left last night with some shorts on & pending longs too at tl & possible breakout levels previous...
Fontu, did you ignore the fact this week that all those holding and accumulating short futures contract on the euro were long TF traders? have a look at the monthly. Where do long TF watch for, did you forget to see they were looking towards the gann 50%, and look at the time, perfect for a reversal spot this month. you were trading against the long TF traders thi week. How long and how far it will reverse before another sell off only time will tell. will be interesting to see next week's COT report.
  • #246,584
  • May 22, 2010 2:11am May 22, 2010 2:11am
Quoting Atlast
That is precisely why most traders lose. Give them all the golden rules you like, give them all the money they need, and most still lose and most here will continue to do so for years. Why?

I've said it before, the real secret is: you ARE part of the market, and the only way to consistently earn from the market, is not to beat it, but to be PART of it. Psychologically, very few can do that. As soon as you start fighting the market, you are psychologically doomed to failure.

Know the market, know yourself. Do gamblers win on a consistent basis?...
Wow....so eloquently put...bravo! This is a gem Atlast....many thanks
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #246,585
  • May 22, 2010 2:30am May 22, 2010 2:30am
Quoting Atlast
Fontu, did you ignore the fact this week that all those holding and accumulating short futures contract on the euro were long TF traders? have a look at the monthly. Where do long TF watch for, did you forget to see they were looking towards the gann 50%, and look at the time, perfect for a reversal spot this month. you were trading against the long TF traders thi week. How long and how far it will reverse before another sell off only time will tell. will be interesting to see next week's COT report.
Thanks Atlas , no nothting ignored , you may see last weeks posts , it was all expected though intially market ignored the retracement , clearly as per td counts & market aspired through every doubt how it possible to go this high at this present euro conditions,with sudden massive fall perhaps due it wanted the 50% fib level for the start but made blunder with some longs at time ,tried to catch those retracements without caring my own higher tf analyses . before the confirmation to me ok for scalping & after that why to wait much for it , clearly a trend change . basically scalping nature still preserved & do act in every movements are the cause of default.

Anyway I hope , the medium term trend is still in infancy & nor any great it can be too & can easily managed next open market .
Just a wave 2 , X up for next very big 3 down to start , euro has no alternative than to fall & fall except feb 2009 come back again , never think so yet .

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #246,586
  • May 22, 2010 3:01am May 22, 2010 3:01am
Fontu

need to discuss few things with u

can v contact somewhere else

nishant
  • #246,587
  • May 22, 2010 3:04am May 22, 2010 3:04am
http://bit.ly/9nrRZk
  • #246,588
  • May 22, 2010 3:05am May 22, 2010 3:05am
i agree with fontu

more upside in comming week

atleast 2 days big bulls will come

1.3080 possible


also huge accumlation going on in gbpusd i expect 1.4800 n then 1.5000 levels this week (lets c what happens)
will jump just as euro did from 1.2190 odds to 1.2670 in just 2 session
  • #246,589
  • May 22, 2010 3:43am May 22, 2010 3:43am
  •  Now
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: 'I should have taken the money' | 654 Posts
Quoting Tenapenny
http://bit.ly/9nrRZk

Or the EUR currency breaks up or stays does not matter. On the long term, Europe will have its act together long before the focus will be on the USD again. The German/European economy is here to stay and will have its deficits under control, long before the US who keeps on spending, wait and see. This lemon has been squeezed sure, EUR first then, USD to come even worse. Wait and see. EUR/USD 2.2 or DM/USD 2.2. The US is in a multi-trillion worse situation. Just look at it 6 months ago, everyone was dumping USD... . Now the EUR is supposed to dead... . Last trend was a dead cat bounce for the USD, and a correection for the EUR, nothing more, and it gave EUR the opportunity to get its act together and come out stronger. Current rate of 1.26 is even still very very strong. Longs have allready been established trough this weeks bottom, at 50% retrace of the upmove from the last 5 years or so.
Being right is one, taking it from the table is two.
  • #246,590
  • May 22, 2010 5:02am May 22, 2010 5:02am
Quoting Now
Or the EUR currency breaks up or stays does not matter. On the long term, Europe will have its act together long before the focus will be on the USD again. The German/European economy is here to stay and will have its deficits under control, long before the US who keeps on spending, wait and see. This lemon has been squeezed sure, EUR first then, USD to come even worse. Wait and see. EUR/USD 2.2 or DM/USD 2.2. The US is in a multi-trillion worse situation. Just look at it 6 months ago, everyone was dumping USD... . Now the EUR is supposed to dead......
I agree to a point. Euro will need more central control over the budgets of all the countries in the zone. Not sure if there is the will to do that in individual states.
  • #246,591
  • May 22, 2010 6:28am May 22, 2010 6:28am
Quoting Atlast
That is precisely why most traders lose. Give them all the golden rules you like, give them all the money they need, and most still lose and most here will continue to do so for years. Why?

I've said it before, the real secret is: you ARE part of the market, and the only way to consistently earn from the market, is not to beat it, but to be PART of it. Psychologically, very few can do that. As soon as you start fighting the market, you are psychologically doomed to failure.

Know the market, know yourself. Do gamblers win on a consistent basis?...
From a "psychological" point of view yes you need to become part of the market.
As a spot trader your not even a pimple on the a$$ of the market movers. Your broker hedges their net exposure (that's us and all our buddies). We have no effect on the market. Unless your buying T-bills you really are in the stands watching a cock fight. That doesn't mean you can't make an educated guess as to which side is stronger but its really a gamble no matter witch side you take.
Investing is different--- With 0 leverage buying Gold is an investment. "psychologically speaking" getting in the market and moving with it is the key to consistent profits, but using a leveraged account makes it gambling because you can only hold on so long. If your able to hold through all the market ups and downs with a small position and your in no danger of a margin call, well yes your investing. Your also a damn fool for not just putting your money a bank somewhere and drawing interest. Profit in forex requires risk. Risk = gambling. Being good at gambling does not make it investing. Gambling is gambling "just my humble opinion" I'm not one to get hung up on what its called, but the definition of gambling- (an act of gambling; an enterprise undertaken or attempted with a risk of loss and a chance of profit or success.) seems to fit most "investors"
  • #246,592
  • May 22, 2010 6:55am May 22, 2010 6:55am
Quoting Now
Or the EUR currency breaks up or stays does not matter. On the long term, Europe will have its act together long before the focus will be on the USD again. The German/European economy is here to stay and will have its deficits under control, long before the US who keeps on spending, wait and see. This lemon has been squeezed sure, EUR first then, USD to come even worse. Wait and see. EUR/USD 2.2 or DM/USD 2.2. The US is in a multi-trillion worse situation. Just look at it 6 months ago, everyone was dumping USD... . Now the EUR is supposed to dead......

I wonder what the news papers were saying in 1932 Weimar Republic
  • #246,593
  • May 22, 2010 7:00am May 22, 2010 7:00am
The Euro will stay. No country will willingly get out from Euro, there are too many economic benefits, the only problem is the political, the little countries will have to allow Euro wide fiscal policy changes.

Next year definitely 1 country will join EU currency or probably 2 countries will enter. So dont believe the spin doctors proclaiming the end of the Euro.
  • #246,594
  • Edited 7:24am May 22, 2010 7:08am | Edited 7:24am
Euro rescue package clears German parliament

http://sg.yimg.com/i/sg/providers/af...FGSz6HOwSwuQ-- AFP - Saturday, May 22


BERLIN (AFP) - – The German parliament approved the country's share of a trillion-dollar rescue package for debt-stricken eurozone countries Friday, after Chancellor Angela Merkel warned the euro was "in danger".
Merkel's centre-right majority in upper and lower houses handily assured passage of the bill to unblock up to about 150 billion euros (187 billion dollars) of the around 750 billion euros in loan guarantees.
The so-called "shock and awe" package, cobbled together by the European Union and International Monetary Fund, will now go to President Horst Koehler for his signature.
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told the Bundestag lower house that approval of the package was crucial to market stability.
The bill must be passed "because markets trust it only once it has actually been implemented," he said. "It is a reality that markets look more at Germany than at Cyprus or Malta."
Germany approved the rescue package two weeks after a 110-billion-euro bail-out deal for debt-wracked Greece, which was hugely unpopular and contributed to a crushing setback for Merkel this month in a key state poll.
This week she tried to impress upon Germans the importance of the measures, saying that the euro was "in danger" and warned of "incalculable consequences" for the EU if the euro were to fail.
The doomsday language drew a sharp rebuke from French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde.
The crunch vote in Europe's top economy came as Merkel held her first talks with new British Prime Minister David Cameron, who took office last week.
It also coincided with the first meeting in Brussels of a new EU economic task force aimed at bolstering economic and budgetary oversight among member states to head off future debt turmoil.
The Brussels meeting of European finance ministers comes amid financial market doubts about Europe's unity in the face of the debt crisis.
The Berlin daily Tagesspiegel said Europe was not only at a fiscal crossroads, but also mired in deep political confusion.
"The main reason why the euro has been targeted is connected to European discord," the newspaper said. "The recognition that discord and negligent budgeting have weakened the euro ought to lead to an immediate change of tack."
Merkel has faced accusations of shaky leadership during the crisis from abroad and even within her own conservative bloc.
On Friday, Horst Seehofer, leader of the Christian Social Union, the Bavarian sister party of Merkel's Christian Democrats, skewered the chancellor over what he called a skittish approach that hurt German interests.
He fumed that Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble had waffled in presenting an international financial transaction tax. The two said they would be willing to implement the tax just in the eurozone even if Britain and the United States did not follow.
"It's not acceptable for us to signal publicly to our negotiating partners in London and Washington, from whom we want something, that they shouldn't get so nervous because while we may have decided something, we know that you won't agree anyway," he told the daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung.
Despite assertions that there is no alternative to the European rescue package, Merkel has also raised doubts, saying it only "buys time" until the mounting deficits of certain eurozone members are tamed.
Some analysts warned the package will be an enormous burden on Germany with little real pay-off.
Economist Hans-Werner Sinn, head of the influential Ifo institute, on Thursday called it "one of the gravest and most wrong decisions in the history of the federal republic."

Link : http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/2010052...y-509a08e.html
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #246,595
  • Edited 7:26am May 22, 2010 7:11am | Edited 7:26am
US Senate passes historic Wall Street overhaul

http://sg.yimg.com/i/sg/providers/af...FGSz6HOwSwuQ-- AFP - Saturday, May 22


WASHINGTON (AFP) - – In a major victory for President Barack Obama, the US Senate has passed the most sweeping overhaul of financial industry rules since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
By a 59-39 margin, lawmakers approved Thursday an ambitious effort to curb Wall Street excesses blamed for fueling the 2008 global economic meltdown, amid smoldering voter anger months before November mid-term elections.
"To Wall Street, it says: No longer can you recklessly gamble away other people's money," Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. "It says to those who game the system: The game is over."
Senate Banking Committee chair Chris Dodd, a key author of the legislation, said it was "a major step toward creating a sound economic foundation for the American people we represent. This is their victory."
The legislation, Obama's top domestic goal, must still be merged with the House of Representatives' rival version into a compromise measure before the final package can go to the president to sign into law.
House Financial Services Committee chair Barney Frank, a Democrat, told CNBC television that he foresaw smooth sailing and that "the president, I am certain now, will have signed this bill well before the Fourth of July."
The measure aims to rein in big firms' use of high-risk practices blamed for the collapse of 2008, end taxpayer-funded bailout of financial titans previously deemed "too big to fail," and create an unprecedented consumer protection agency to shield Americans from industry abuses.
It also seeks to curb big banks' lucrative, largely unregulated business in complex securities called derivatives, essentially bets on the future cost of an asset, which many businesses use to control risk from volatile prices.
It includes several measures aimed at increasing the transparency at the US Federal Reserve and the central bank's accountability, as well as a measure aimed at blocking International Monetary Fund aid packages like the one for Greece without a guarantee that the money will be repaid.
A few hours before the vote, Obama pledged that the law would not smother the market.
"The reform I sign will not stifle the power of the free market -- it will simply bring predictable, responsible, sensible rules into the marketplace," he said in the Rose Garden of the White House.
"Our goal is not to punish the banks, but to protect the larger economy and the American people from the kind of upheavals that we've seen in the past few years," said the president.
Obama also took aim at the financial industry, accusing it of deploying "hordes of lobbyists and millions of dollars in ads" to kill the bill and trying to "water it down."
"Today, I think it's fair to say that these efforts have failed," he said.
Four Republicans joined all but two Democrats to approve the measure, drawing praise from Reid at the end of a month-long, sometimes bitter debate expected to stretch into the House-Senate "conference" to build a compromise.
US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said in a statement that he looked forward to working with lawmakers "to produce a sensible, prudent reform bill that strengthens the American financial system and preserves our ability to innovate and compete in a global economy."
The two chambers were to pick negotiating delegates on Monday.
Some of the remaining disputes include curbs on derivative trading and restrictions on investment activities by deposit-holding banks.
Senate Agriculture Committee chair Blanche Lincoln, a Democrat, authored a measure in the bill aimed at ending the largely unregulated derivatives business, a step forcefully opposed by big banks and their lobbyists trying to shape the legislation.
Dodd introduced and then pulled back from but did not withdraw a measure gutting Lincoln's proposal.
Democratic Senators Jeff Merkley and Carl Levin, authors of a measure to enact the so-called "Volcker rule" curbing deposit-holding banks' investment activities, expressed faint hopes the final bill would include it.
The measure, named for former US Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker, would stop banks from holding customers' deposits at the same time as making investments for their own gain -- so-called proprietary trading.
Curbs on "prop trading" went into effect after the Great Depression. In 1933, the Glass-Steagall Act prohibited commercial banks from underwriting corporate securities, or acting as brokerages, but it was undone in 1999.

Link : http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/2010052...e-972e412.html
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #246,596
  • May 22, 2010 8:08am May 22, 2010 8:08am
All I can say is 1.22-1.23 is supported by ECB it's concrete bottom

period. EUR will probably migrate into 1.30 + region from here..

No reason to short at 1.25 knowing you going to be executed

by ECB in 1.23 region.. Shorts are over. I'll have to use larger

lot on the Long site to offset my shorts, or cut them lose..

It will be more likely trend change from here on..

Ohh and forgot to mention.. Why do you think US FED open Credit Swap lines again for the European banks few days

before intervention?

Guess what, they helped to lift EUR, as they don't like high Dollar themselves..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #246,597
  • May 22, 2010 8:26am May 22, 2010 8:26am
Quoting bad$ala
The Euro will stay. No country will willingly get out from Euro, there are too many economic benefits, the only problem is the political, the little countries will have to allow Euro wide fiscal policy changes.

Next year definitely 1 country will join EU currency or probably 2 countries will enter. So dont believe the spin doctors proclaiming the end of the Euro.
a dropping euro even further has nothing to go whether it will at not be around. ez nor Germany will decide the fate of the euro.. the market will..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #246,598
  • May 22, 2010 8:27am May 22, 2010 8:27am
Quoting Tsar
Euro rescue package clears German parliament...
#246627
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #246,599
  • Edited 8:46am May 22, 2010 8:28am | Edited 8:46am
Quoting SkyzerFX
All I can say is 1.22-1.23 is supported by ECB it's concrete bottom

period. EUR will probably migrate into 1.30 + region from here..

No reason to short at 1.25 knowing you going to be executed

by ECB in 1.23 region.. Shorts are over. I'll have to use larger

lot on the Long site to offset my shorts, or cut them lose..

It will be more likely trend change from here on..

Ohh and forgot to mention.. Why do you think US FED open Credit Swap lines again for the European banks few days

before intervention?

Guess what, they helped to lift EUR, as...
#246627
the chf says eu should go higher first if chf breaks the lower tl earlier posted. but it may bounce and try at a later time. eu on a smaller time frame says eu may dive...looks like the 2 are adjusting to their new equalization (#s unknown).. all pairs will do it with the euro now.. so choppy range may be on its schedule a few weeks/ month... until low is taken out.
eurx shows direction where euro is comfortable longer term. (since 2007) and the direction is not up..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #246,600
  • May 22, 2010 8:43am May 22, 2010 8:43am
Will Wall Street reforms work?

09:20 UK time, Friday, 21 May 2010


The US Senate has approved a bill which will see the most sweeping overhaul of the country's financial regulations since the 1930's.
Will the measures work?

The bill creates a new watchdog agency and will seek to reform the complicated derivatives market. It will also increase restraints on larger banks and require proof from borrowers that they can pay back even the most basic of mortgages.

President Obama said the reforms mean that Americans would never again pay "for Wall Street's mistakes".

Will the proposals stabilise the US economy? Is it possible to fully regulate the activities of the financial markets?
Do you work in the financial services industry?


Link : http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/haveyoursay/2010/05/will_wall_street_reforms_work.htm
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
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