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Trendline breakouts

  • #301
  • May 18, 2010 1:01pm May 18, 2010 1:01pm
Great price action charts. Has similarities to this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...?t=2331&page=3
  • #302
  • May 19, 2010 1:02pm May 19, 2010 1:02pm
bop
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  • #303
  • May 21, 2010 2:53am May 21, 2010 2:53am
I see that eurusd is on a short covering rally...
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  • #304
  • May 21, 2010 8:12pm May 21, 2010 8:12pm
Eurusd was not all gloom and doom...
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  • #305
  • May 23, 2010 5:37am May 23, 2010 5:37am
Quoting emacro
It has been an interesting few weeks since this thread has started. I enjoy the experience of having my own thread.

Although I think it has not been that popular a thread, I hope that it has helped some to understand the concept of using trendlines as support/resistance, to delineate a 'line in the sand' between uptrends and downtrends.

With that, this will be my last post for a while at least.

Cheers to all
They are right emacro. I've learned a lot from you. Please stay active in your thread.
  • #306
  • May 23, 2010 7:22pm May 23, 2010 7:22pm
click
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  • #307
  • Sep 4, 2010 11:13am Sep 4, 2010 11:13am
Quoting FXEZ
I offer the following by way of critique of commonly held TA assumptions that everybody takes for granted and not as a critique of your efforts. Please carry on.

Common TA assumptions should be scrutinized by anybody who wants to trade with the probabilities. Ask the following question, how can 2 or 3 data points determine a trend? What about all the other data points - are they less significant than the ones that are cherry picked for trend line drawing? How about another question, why must a trend line be a straight line?



There are...
I will address your question.

How can 2 or 3 data points determine a trend?

ANS: Well, the minimum you need to determine a trend are two data points. You cannot use one data point. You need at least two. This is mathematics. Now, for a given sample size, two may or may not be enough. It all depends on what you are looking for, what function you are using to plot these two data points together, what is the statistics noise level, etc. But just because you have two data points doesnt mean it is meaningless.

Also, the presupposition that you have two or 48 data points is simply contextual. That is, it all depends on the timeframe. Using the daily chart, a single data point is 1, but zoom to hourly chart, that same single data point suddenly becomes 24 data points. Since you've converted daily to 24hourly data. You can to this for monthly vs 1hour. In that sense a single monthly data point suddenly becomes an 720 data points(24hours X 30 days). As such, a 1, 2, 3 data points are all in the eyes of the beholder.

Why is a trendline a straightline?

ANS: In algebra, to draw a line you need at least two points. All algrebaic lines are straight. So, why wont a trading system(trendlines) based on algebraic concept of lines be straight? Of course, it will be straight. Trendlines are straight because they are based on algebraic concept of lines which are themselves straight. Unless you want to challenge the foundational concept of mathematics that derives straightlines.

Not to get really off topic, even curves and circles are straight lines when you use differential calculus limit/exhaustion method. dy/dx.

That said, any trend determining mechanics doesnt have to be a straight line: moving averages, elliot waves, series of swing highs/lows, etc. all these can determine a trend. But asking why is a trendline a straight line is like asking why is elliot waves a wave or why is moving averages averages. It makes no sense. the nature of trendline is to be a line, and lines are straight otherwise they wont be a line. Asking why a line is straight is meaningless, trendlines are lines, they have to be straight, otherwise, they wont be a line. This is axiomatic. This is a mathematical axiom. It is the same as asking why is a curve a curve or why is a triangle a triangle or rectangle a rectangle.
  • #308
  • Sep 5, 2010 2:59am Sep 5, 2010 2:59am
Quoting Mortician.
I will address your question.

How can 2 or 3 data points determine a trend?

ANS: Well, the minimum you need to determine a trend are two data points. You cannot use one data point. You need at least two. This is mathematics. Now, for a given sample size, two may or may not be enough. It all depends on what you are looking for, what function you are using to plot these two data points together, what is the statistics noise level, etc. But just because you have two data points doesnt mean it is meaningless.

Also, the presupposition that you have...
Very good answers, well done.

As prices derived from the auction process (market) are the end result of supply and demand form market participants, there is an inherent randomness and hence madness to market prices. By using assumptions and orderly structures such as trendlines and TA, one can get (hopefully) a more cognisant picture on which to make buy and sell decisions.
  • #309
  • Sep 5, 2010 3:42am Sep 5, 2010 3:42am
Quoting emacro
Very good answers, well done.

As prices derived from the auction process (market) are the end result of supply and demand form market participants, there is an inherent randomness and hence madness to market prices. By using assumptions and orderly structures such as trendlines and TA, one can get (hopefully) a more cognisant picture on which to make buy and sell decisions.

Thank you. Your response makes sense to me. We are all trying to impose some sorts of pattern on a chaotic market interaction. That is all. We are all working with approximations. The bottomline line is not the philosophical rigour of your method, the bottomline is: are you making money? That is the bottomline. Everything else can go out of the window
  • #310
  • Sep 6, 2010 9:24pm Sep 6, 2010 9:24pm
EMARCO,

Is this you? This person on youtube use a strikingly similar system to yours.

Inserted Video
  • #311
  • Sep 7, 2010 4:30am Sep 7, 2010 4:30am
Quoting Mortician.
EMARCO,

Is this you? This person on youtube use a strikingly similar system to yours.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mY2pA85dAEQ
No. It is someone else.
  • #312
  • Sep 8, 2010 6:20am Sep 8, 2010 6:20am
60 min and 10 min charts with trendlines...
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  • #313
  • Sep 9, 2010 2:09am Sep 9, 2010 2:09am
hi emacro

how do you know which direction to draw the trendline in order for it to break up or down? does it matter? do you consider larger timeframes when you draw your trendlines? when i look at your charts it looks so obvious but when i look at mine i dont know where to start!
  • #314
  • Sep 23, 2010 6:16am Sep 23, 2010 6:16am
Quoting sk_255
hi emacro

how do you know which direction to draw the trendline in order for it to break up or down? does it matter? do you consider larger timeframes when you draw your trendlines? when i look at your charts it looks so obvious but when i look at mine i dont know where to start!
Sorry for the late reply.

The trendline is a 'line in the sand' between having a bullish bias or bearish bias. Say you choose the higher timeframe as 30 min (as in CAD futures attached) the larger timeframe 30m is showing bearish bias, so on lower timeframe trigger like 1 min etc you'd try to draw the trendline to go with the direction of the higher timeframe bias from which side of any trendline drawn.

Note: bottom chart 1 min top chart 30min

Hope it helps.

Cheers
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  • #315
  • Sep 23, 2010 7:41am Sep 23, 2010 7:41am
A bit further on....
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  • #316
  • Sep 24, 2010 2:17am Sep 24, 2010 2:17am
ahh yes think ive got it - will practice now. thanks emacro!
  • #317
  • Sep 26, 2010 4:37pm Sep 26, 2010 4:37pm
Nice thread. pure price action, that is more like it.
  • #318
  • Sep 27, 2010 7:51am Sep 27, 2010 7:51am
Quoting .Entropy
Nice thread. pure price action, that is more like it.
are you using the system?
Enter Signature
  • #319
  • Sep 27, 2010 7:55am Sep 27, 2010 7:55am
Quoting emacro
No. It is someone else.
an imposter?
Enter Signature
  • #320
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:15am Sep 28, 2010 9:15am
Quoting vosterfxandy
an imposter?
I'd say a 'like minded' individual.

Want to post a 30 min Es futures chart for today's trade, which is 1/2 hour into equity trading session in the US.

The 5 min provides the 'trigger'.
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