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  • #246,381
  • May 21, 2010 9:52am May 21, 2010 9:52am
Starting to look like everyone took an early lunch....
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #246,382
  • May 21, 2010 9:52am May 21, 2010 9:52am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
That H4 chart doesn't show a higher high AND it only goes back to May 12. How is that an uptrend??
It does show a higher high. two if you count inside bars. which I dont, but whatever.
  • #246,383
  • May 21, 2010 9:54am May 21, 2010 9:54am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Higher highs and higher lows over the last 3 days doesn't qualify for a trend.
it depends which time frame you use. sorry have to disagree with you.
  • #246,384
  • May 21, 2010 9:55am May 21, 2010 9:55am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Higher highs and higher lows over the last 3 days doesn't qualify for a trend.
basics dow theory suggest that a higher high and higher low is an uptrend. that is if we are talking on that premise, even in the rule of elliot waves, the same applies.

now based on time frame the daily is on a down trend. h4 litrally made a RHS which is equals to a change in trend...

basically we are in the infant stages of an uptrend, that could fail, which will result in a new legging for a down trend
  • #246,385
  • May 21, 2010 9:56am May 21, 2010 9:56am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Higher highs and higher lows over the last 3 days doesn't qualify for a trend.
I was gonna say that. Ted on the chart you posted, on the left hand side, you'll see price action above that long line drawn on your chart. Todays price action is no where near that line and at the same time giving off reversal signs. So if you draw a trend line from the high (price action on the left) to the low (price action on the right), you'll see a downwards pattern. Though for the past few days price action has been up BUT over all trend is down.
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  • #246,386
  • May 21, 2010 9:57am May 21, 2010 9:57am
Quoting jest1081
basics dow theory suggest that a higher high and higher low is an uptrend. that is if we are talking on that premise, even in the rule of elliot waves, the same applies.

now based on time frame the daily is on a down trend. h4 litrally made a RHS which is equals to a change in trend...

basically we are in the infant stages of an uptrend, that could fail, which will result in a new legging for a down trend
There ya go!
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #246,387
  • May 21, 2010 9:59am May 21, 2010 9:59am
Quoting MuddBuddha
There ya go!
I'd be cautious of using Dow theory on intraday charts. Charles Dow didn't. Look at a daily and tell me what you see.
Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
  • #246,388
  • May 21, 2010 10:00am May 21, 2010 10:00am
Okay we're in an uptrend then and I'm an asshole that doesn't know anything.
  • #246,389
  • May 21, 2010 10:01am May 21, 2010 10:01am
Quoting Ted1983
This one showing the uptrend on the 4 hourly timeframe.
look like inverted head and shoulder ... 1.2730 on d way
  • #246,390
  • May 21, 2010 10:02am May 21, 2010 10:02am
Quoting Jhig
I was gonna say that. Ted on the chart you posted, on the left hand side, you'll see price action above that long line drawn on your chart. Todays price action is no where near that line and at the same time giving off reversal signs. So if you draw a trend line from the high (price action on the left) to the low (price action on the right), you'll see a downwards pattern. Though for the past few days price action has been up BUT over all trend is down.
trends within trends...cheers mate

Quote
I'd be cautious of using Dow theory on intraday charts. Charles Dow didn't. Look at a daily and tell me what you see.

wouldnt be making money if i hadnt put the theory to practice today...dont you think so?

Quote
Okay we're in an uptrend then and I'm an asshole that doesn't know anything.
dont shoot yourself in the leg. we are in a downtrend based on the bigger picture, just the short term charts (that we are discussing) are in an uptrend and has yet to fall back into the daily trend sequence YET. when that happens of coz TED will agree that we are in a down trend. flow with the price my friend
  • #246,391
  • May 21, 2010 10:02am May 21, 2010 10:02am
Hey why the quarrel, how could we make the money if every1 thinks the same
  • #246,392
  • May 21, 2010 10:03am May 21, 2010 10:03am
Quoting alex.fx
it depends which time frame you use. sorry have to disagree with you.
We have been discussing the H4 chart.
  • #246,393
  • May 21, 2010 10:03am May 21, 2010 10:03am
Quoting jest1081
basics dow theory suggest that a higher high and higher low is an uptrend. that is if we are talking on that premise, even in the rule of elliot waves, the same applies.

now based on time frame the daily is on a down trend. h4 litrally made a RHS which is equals to a change in trend...

basically we are in the infant stages of an uptrend, that could fail, which will result in a new legging for a down trend
HH an HL qualify for a trending market NOT for THE trend.
Want to be on the safe side... use the BBL (bull/bear line = the 200 sma) to qualify the trend.
Above BBL, buy the dips, with a trending market (making HH and HL), and don't buy LL, because it could be a signal of trend change.
Below BBL sell the rallies, with a trending market (making LH and LL), and don't sell HH, because it could be a signal of trend change.


P.S: HH=Higher high / HL= Higher low / LH =lower high / LL= lower low
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #246,394
  • May 21, 2010 10:06am May 21, 2010 10:06am
Hey, this infant starts to grow height.

I mean gbp/usd.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #246,395
  • May 21, 2010 10:07am May 21, 2010 10:07am
Quoting profxtrader
I'd be cautious of using Dow theory on intraday charts. Charles Dow didn't. Look at a daily and tell me what you see.
I wouldn't think of it. If you research Dow Theory on FF, you'd come up with an interesting result.

On the five minute charts, I'm only concerned with where price is now and where it will be a few minutes from now.

Jest is the Shanghai Master of trend analysis. He is correct that this is an "infant" reversal and could very well fail which will result in a continuation of the downtrend.

All you can do is speculate based on the information the charts provide.
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #246,396
  • May 21, 2010 10:09am May 21, 2010 10:09am
So, basically, your all right until proven otherwise!
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #246,397
  • May 21, 2010 10:12am May 21, 2010 10:12am
Quoting T@rantula
Hey why the quarrel, how could we make the money if every1 thinks the same
I agree, for every buyer there has to be someone convinced that selling is a good idea. Otherwise this game wouldn't work. I have been trading full time for the past 6 years. But... maybe it's me who doesn't know what I'm talking about. Just consider this chart the ramblings of an insane man.
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Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
  • #246,398
  • May 21, 2010 10:13am May 21, 2010 10:13am
Quoting MuddBuddha
I wouldn't think of it. If you research Dow Theory on FF, you'd come up with an interesting result.

On the five minute charts, I'm only concerned with where price is now and where it will be a few minutes from now.

Jest is the Shanghai Master of trend analysis. He is correct that this is an "infant" reversal and could very well fail which will result in a continuation of the downtrend.

All you can do is speculate based on the information the charts provide.
Some old timer might have statistics and probability of this outcome (fail/not fail) in initial stage reversal. Too bad, environment is never the same
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #246,399
  • May 21, 2010 10:14am May 21, 2010 10:14am
Quoting Z3iz3i
Hey, this infant starts to grow height.

I mean gbp/usd.
Yeah, and I shorted it @ 1.44577. Go figure
Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
  • #246,400
  • May 21, 2010 10:15am May 21, 2010 10:15am
sell signal is going to confirm 3 min in M5 tf , 18 min in m30 tf & M1 already there & so expecting bear to expect as far as possible to 1.2460 or down by 18 min time perhaps .1.2546 breaks & hold to start possibly 74 top here, may be best short entry .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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