EURUSD | Page 12231 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #244,601
  • May 19, 2010 10:03am May 19, 2010 10:03am
Quoting PriceVolume
Don't sweat it...I know what you're saying. You've got a system that works for you and that's all that matters. Just keep booking profit, trade the way that works for you....and ignore the noise. You would spend half your time here qualifying your statements, otherwise.
Yea, just trying to help, but it aint easy job to set all indicators correctly...not plug and play...need to consult many books and scripts..

Remember im not playing whos d..k is longer, just trying to be helpful and post some analysis.. Im not unmistakable, but for everything I say i have a logical support behind it..
  • #244,602
  • May 19, 2010 10:05am May 19, 2010 10:05am
Quoting zam4ever
While waiting for EUR/USD down again (hopefully), I need some comment and advice about what I saw co-relation which normally USD/CHF and EUR/USD did is gone today. USD/CHF and EUR/USD were moving up in the same direction. For those familiar in currency pair co-relation, how to identify this kind of movement? Any advices?

The main reason for EURUSD and USDCHF correlation being high (negatively) is, obviously, due to the USD being in common, and EUR and CHF being in the same region, thus basicaly responding to similar developments.

Other reason why USDCHF responds differently to EURUSD (going up at same time) is (actually was, when the interest rate differential was higher before the crisis) the interest rates associated with each currency pair. CHF has been one of the lowest paying currencies, and used in carry trading, along with JPY, hence, an unfolding of the carry trade helped push both JPY and CHF in tandem. After the financial crisis, as the rates fell on even majors, this effect is somewhat more subdued.

Lastly,

Swiss Central Bank often intervenes in the currency markets, and sometimes the magnitude might be massive.

I suspect an intervene from the Swiss Central Bank for today's move.
  • #244,603
  • May 19, 2010 10:06am May 19, 2010 10:06am
Quoting Mr J
Bullish? Stop looking at indicators. This thing is bearish, all I see is weakness. When this stops being supported, it will drop like a stone. Anyone looking to go long is mad in my opinion!

Very true, also traders should look it WHERE is price on the monthly chart... i mean after 6 months of selling and arrive to the turning point, it will bounce, regardless interventions or whatever it is...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU1.jpg Size: 228 KB
  • #244,604
  • May 19, 2010 10:07am May 19, 2010 10:07am
All EUR/USD posts closed at 1.2325. Time to get some rest and see better market tomorrow.

Thank you for advices and guidance.

Have a nice trading day and cheers
  • #244,605
  • May 19, 2010 10:09am May 19, 2010 10:09am
On 1m 5 stopping volume bars in 15 minutes! Never seen that before. Should go up very short term.
  • #244,606
  • May 19, 2010 10:11am May 19, 2010 10:11am
Quoting steven
Very true, also traders should look it WHERE is price on the monthly chart... i mean after 6 months of selling and arrive to the turning point, it will bounce, regardless interventions or whatever it is...

I cannot believe everyone is so sure of themselves that it is fundermentally doomed to disaster although everyman and his dog is still shorting the euro. The monthly chart means there is an extreme liklihood of a bounce bounce.
  • #244,607
  • May 19, 2010 10:12am May 19, 2010 10:12am
" FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Euro is performing a spectacular rally against the Swiss Franc on the back of a suspected SNB intervention, as the pair has surged about 300 pips in three hours jumping from 1.4000 area to session high at 1.4305.

Above 1.4300/05 session high, the pair might find resistance at 1.4320 (Apr 28 low) and 1.4365 (Apr 27 high). On the downside, support levels lie at 1.4125/30 (intra-day level, and below here, 1.4120 and 1.4070.

As usual, the Swiss National Bank has not made any comment about the suspected intervention,although news by Bloomberg mention the possibility of massive CHF selling by the Bank in order to weaken the currency and support the country's economic recovery."
  • #244,608
  • May 19, 2010 10:13am May 19, 2010 10:13am
Quoting Mr J
Bullish? Stop looking at indicators. This thing is bearish, all I see is weakness. When this stops being supported, it will drop like a stone. Anyone looking to go long is mad in my opinion!

I agree that the pair is certainly bearish, but probably for different reasons. I certainly think Dow is going sub 10K, sub 9K and lower, during upcoming months; commodities going lower, which all will support USD.

I wouldn't say "mad" though, since noting that 98% of traders today are already USD long, and only 2% is thinking EUR will appreciate. This is EXTREME, by far. If I didn't quote the reasons I stated above, I would be going long EUR, and not thinking doing anything mad, contrary, being smart. But the current situation in markets is a different story, hence, USD will continue to appreciate.

PS: (I do go long for a short term from time to time, as I did Monday morning and today morning)
  • #244,609
  • May 19, 2010 10:13am May 19, 2010 10:13am
German speculative pressure on its securities markets injected a bid dose of risk aversion into FX markets.
  • #244,610
  • May 19, 2010 10:15am May 19, 2010 10:15am
Quoting Predi
" FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Euro is performing a spectacular rally...

Well, I mean, it is obvious

I wouldn't trade EURCHF though, just expecting the Swiss CB to intervene form now and then; the range is too tight; where you may use that margin to trade another pair and profit.
  • #244,611
  • May 19, 2010 10:15am May 19, 2010 10:15am
Quoting theroller
The main reason for EURUSD and USDCHF correlation being high (negatively) is, obviously, due to the USD being in common, and EUR and CHF being in the same region, thus basicaly responding to similar developments.

Other reason why USDCHF responds differently to EURUSD (going up at same time) is (actually was, when the interest rate differential was higher before the crisis) the interest rates associated with each currency pair....
Thank you very much for advices and comments.

SNB is likely to intervene with market to cool down CHF currency, and still recall bad experience when shorting USD/CHF, but it move more than 400 - 500 pips last time by them. Anyway, I can't remember what is the reason behind it.

cheers
  • #244,612
  • May 19, 2010 10:17am May 19, 2010 10:17am
$eurnzd strong upwards trend. Today alone, moved 700 pips. I was only able to grab 400 pip. In addition to the 300 pips I grabed $euraud. Should have held my Long positions. Next time intend on letting the profit ride. $euraud $eurnzd


** I'm just about ready to give up on the Majors. The team and I are cleaning up off the Commodity crosses. **
  • #244,613
  • May 19, 2010 10:19am May 19, 2010 10:19am
back , shorted for some retracement before next up m30 have buy setup pefection & to retrace befoe up & same M1 buy signal but here again to retrace , though very resistant to regular retracement now . anyway looking for only 1.23 to 1.2290 though more should come .
right now price in strong up rally h1 & h4 .
power failure & to leave at noon missing this up movement.

1.2333 providing as strong support & not ready to fall .
fontu
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #244,614
  • May 19, 2010 10:23am May 19, 2010 10:23am
just a thought.... eu has bounced a bunch... chf has not.. the hype will bury many accounts..

wtf comming soon

aud tells you what happening in china

smell the flowers.. we wont be back here...after this week
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #244,615
  • May 19, 2010 10:23am May 19, 2010 10:23am
Quoting fontu
M1 buy signal but here again to retrace
fontu
Dudes, what signals are you talking about? Full force Intervention

going on right now, Signals are not valid. If they stop now

EU will fall below current low in not time.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #244,616
  • May 19, 2010 10:23am May 19, 2010 10:23am
Quoting fontu
1.2333 providing as strong support & not ready to fall .
fontu
Dont look now but... 1.2333 just fell...
  • #244,617
  • May 19, 2010 10:24am May 19, 2010 10:24am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: commoditycross.PNG Size: 76 KB


Been playing the EurAud and EurNzd pa on the 1H. Nothing but upwards momentum. Mad I didn't hold the positions longer.
  • #244,618
  • May 19, 2010 10:26am May 19, 2010 10:26am
Quoting theroller
I agree that the pair is certainly bearish, but probably for different reasons. I certainly think Dow is going sub 10K, sub 9K and lower, during upcoming months; commodities going lower, which all will support USD.
No, risk aversion in falling global markets is the central theme to my outlook and strategy for the near future.

Quote
PS: (I do go long for a short term from time to time, as I did Monday morning and today morning)
[/quote]

It sounds like you were taking good prices though, so that is a different matter. I'm not against countertrend trading, but a long at 2330 is taking the worst of it in my opinion. Looking for higher than that isn't any better, again in my opinion.
  • #244,619
  • May 19, 2010 10:27am May 19, 2010 10:27am
Quoting gatorinla
just a thought.... eu has bounced a bunch... chf has not.. the hype will bury many accounts..

wtf comming soon

aud tells you what happening in china

smell the flowers.. we wont be back here...after this week
You expecting the bombs to start dropping?
  • #244,620
  • May 19, 2010 10:30am May 19, 2010 10:30am
Quoting Mr J
It sounds like you were taking good prices though, so that is a different matter. I'm not against countertrend trading, but a long at 2330 is taking the worst of it in my opinion. Looking for higher than that isn't any better, again in my opinion.
Agreed. As noted before here, if you have been holding longs through today, from 1.2190s to 1.2350s, this is NOT the time to close them. Mistake where 90% of investors/traders do, buy at high, sell at low. I highly doubt, and will certainly be surprised, to see EURUSD above 1.24-1.2450s, unless there is no surprising news popping up.

I will most likely book longs around US session close, and believe Asia and Europe will bring the pair down again. Most likely turning strong bearish in Asia.
257 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
Muravey