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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,941
  • May 18, 2010 10:18pm May 18, 2010 10:18pm
Quoting thegreat78
Just wondering, what did you base this A/U trade on? Also what did you use to determine the target of .8200.

thanks for this thread, you're doing a great job!

The trade was made based on weekly RSI classic div, broken major Support line in daily chart ,and overall beaish bais of the US/UK/Europe equities. .8200 is a 38% fib level that wont give up without putting a fight so I'll take profit there.
  • #2,942
  • May 18, 2010 10:20pm May 18, 2010 10:20pm
Quoting rantang
Hi shahab8b,

Do you think 87 a good level to enter short AU?

Thanks,
Ran

If you get .87 in a day or two ,it will be good to short.
  • #2,943
  • May 18, 2010 10:21pm May 18, 2010 10:21pm
Quoting hayseed
the only news i noticed, other than the aussie's consumer confidence, was about wages..... but that came out a few hours after the jump....h
Hey Hayseed - I don't know if you have looked at this site before but it's a great alternative to the usual news channels.

AUD could get hard hit by changes in hedge fund rules and regulations

The market remains very long the AUD, particularly against the EUR and the GBP judging by the latest IMM data, and many of the biggest speculative positions are held by hedge funds. Being long the AUD was a no-brainer; relatively high interest rates (and rising), a strong economy piggy-backing on strong Chinese growth and a domestic market which managed to avoid most of the big shockwaves after the GFC. If the hedge fund market feels that it has to start reducing its AUD positioning then the Aussie could be in for another sharp fall.

Lots of stops triggered below .8575 in the AUD/USD and the pair has fallen 40 pips very quickly. The inverted H&S that we’ve been following on the EUR/AUD is showing signs that it might complete and there was talk yesterday of heavy stops above 1.4250.

http://www.forexlive.com/category/all
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,944
  • May 18, 2010 10:31pm May 18, 2010 10:31pm
Quoting tpaulbeaumon
I wasnt being rude, I had replied to your:



with:



...just a bit of a delay. cheers.

The thread stretched and I missed your post. Search Level Stop Reverse version 2 indicator in FF, you will find what it is. A good tool for position trades.
  • #2,945
  • May 18, 2010 10:35pm May 18, 2010 10:35pm
Quoting Patience
Hey Hayseed - I don't know if you have looked at this site before but it's a great alternative to the usual news channels.

AUD could get hard hit by changes in hedge fund rules and regulations

The market remains very long the AUD, particularly against the EUR and the GBP judging by the latest IMM data, and many of the biggest speculative positions are held by hedge funds. Being long the AUD was a no-brainer; relatively high interest rates (and rising), a strong economy piggy-backing on strong Chinese growth and a domestic market which...
Yea, it remains to be seen if E/A trend reverses with this conditions. for now it's well in down trend channel but a break above 1.445 will bring a major reversal.
If you remember we had this talk with Elite that A/J would hit hard sooner than later. Now it's happening.
  • #2,946
  • May 18, 2010 10:35pm May 18, 2010 10:35pm
Quoting shahab8b
E/A short at 1.4260 close to weekly R1.
The set up is fine but I'm a bit worried about the change in the dynamic of the market ,I think Aussie ,Kiwi and Cable might fall harder than Euro from now on. But we need to see a change in E/A trend which still hasn't happened.
G'day Shahab - I agree with that. Apparently all the money is piling into US Treasuries. Had a 14 basis point move today in the 10 year.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,947
  • May 18, 2010 10:42pm May 18, 2010 10:42pm
Quoting Geppyg
TalK about it am nearly all in on indicies as well as cable......
Early retirement may be happening in the next couple of years....

Good day matey

Geppyg

Hello Geppyg,

Hope all is well. It's a pleasure to see we are riding the same boat. I'm almost all-in short indicies futures, took them on the rallies before yesterday drop.Also short E/U from 1.2395 ,A/J E/J A/U G/J CAD/J A/Cad G/Cad and long U/Cad.My only concern is Cable, I never got the chance to short it this week despite my extreme bearish bias.I've seen you great charts at your thread and learned new things as always.

Regards
Shahab
  • #2,948
  • May 18, 2010 10:44pm May 18, 2010 10:44pm
Quoting shahab8b
Yea, it remains to be seen if E/A trend reverses with this conditions. for now it's well in down trend channel but a break above 1.445 will bring a major reversal.
If you remember we had this talk with Elite that A/J would hit hard sooner than later. Now it's happening.
Must have been thinking the same thing We just broke the lows of 2010 at 0.8577 on A/U. Average yearly range for A/U over last 10 years is 1,704 pips. In 2009 it did 3,157 pips. E/U has done it's average yearly range. If market remains in this mode, the chances are good that E/A will appreciate. I won't be shorting it in these conditions ....
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,949
  • May 18, 2010 10:45pm May 18, 2010 10:45pm
Quoting shahab8b
E/A short at 1.4260 close to weekly R1.
The set up is fine but I'm a bit worried about the change in the dynamic of the market ,I think Aussie ,Kiwi and Cable might fall harder than Euro from now on. But we need to see a change in E/A trend which still hasn't happened.
Good Entry #700
  • #2,950
  • May 18, 2010 10:50pm May 18, 2010 10:50pm
Quoting Patience
Hey Hayseed - I don't know if you have looked at this site before but it's a great alternative to the usual news channels.
hey p ....... thanks........ you might have saved me some pain and suffering..... i was short, 3 trades.... till i read that......

sounds like the euraud is fixin to be a, two man enter one man leave thunderdome event..... i'll move over and let the mad max's traders fight it out...... hayseeds bruise all too easy.....

thanks again........h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,951
  • May 18, 2010 10:52pm May 18, 2010 10:52pm
Quoting Patience
G'day Shahab - I agree with that. Apparently all the money is piling into US Treasuries. Had a 14 basis point move today in the 10 year.
Bubble forming in Treasuries perhaps?? Hmm.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,952
  • May 18, 2010 10:53pm May 18, 2010 10:53pm
Quoting Patience
G'day Shahab - I agree with that. Apparently all the money is piling into US Treasuries. Had a 14 basis point move today in the 10 year.

G'day patience, We had that conversation about the crash and US.Treasuries, that's happening now.But honestly, this vertical market is tough to trade even with the right bias.
  • #2,953
  • May 18, 2010 10:54pm May 18, 2010 10:54pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
Good Entry #700

Hi mate, hope you are piping well. Nice to see on board .
  • #2,954
  • May 18, 2010 11:01pm May 18, 2010 11:01pm
Quoting shahab8b
G'day patience, We had that conversation about the crash and US.Treasuries, that's happening now.But honestly, this vertical market is tough to trade even with the right bias.
It will be interesting to see how much A/U unravels. Gold not supporting at the moment and their data hasn't been great lately - you know how I commented on that Surprise Index in the Lloyds Weekly Report. If it does it's average yearly range then we should see 0.76xx area sometime this year but it did do nearly twice it's average yearly range in 2009 so if all those leveraged positions have to be unwound, it could get painful. Not to mention that "Super Tax" on mining companies that the market doesn't like and the Chinese tightening.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,955
  • May 18, 2010 11:05pm May 18, 2010 11:05pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Bubble forming in Treasuries perhaps?? Hmm.
Yeah, but where would you put your money?
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,956
  • May 18, 2010 11:07pm May 18, 2010 11:07pm
Quoting Patience
Yeah, but where would you put your money?
I read an article about this possible situation months ago and didn't believe it could happen. I'll have to get my hands on it and share with everyone.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,957
  • May 18, 2010 11:15pm May 18, 2010 11:15pm
Quoting Patience
Yeah, but where would you put your money?

IMO, US and Canada Treasuries are the safest, Gold is a bobble and has just started to fall, I like the physical Gold tough ,a relatively safe investment but at this price it's crazy.
  • #2,958
  • May 18, 2010 11:17pm May 18, 2010 11:17pm
As a longer term DXY follower, Im thinking perhaps there could be some stiff resistance around the 88.1-88.2 area? I plan on slicing some profit if it gets there in anycase

Daily oscillators are looking quite OB, and shorter timeframes are starting to create -ve Div, although neither of these things are particularly compelling right now.

Fridays COT positioning will likely show a new short EU record after y'days close, at a guess? Hopefully not though cheers.

FWIW on Tbonds/bills, I certainly think in coming weeks the fall in yields will continue, but further out(months/years?) Im convinced yields are headed much higher.
  • #2,959
  • May 18, 2010 11:18pm May 18, 2010 11:18pm
Quoting Patience
Yeah, but where would you put your money?
if you wanna some Long term investment's so i would sagest you Buy Silver , or Gold and hold..........hold.........and hold........sonner that gave you if you having my level of mm strategy and Triggering the Gold in every trade with 60+% notes so it going to be The BEST 1000% return .

it is like Trick of Doing Arbitraging with Non dealing with
DRAGON-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!
  • #2,960
  • May 18, 2010 11:19pm May 18, 2010 11:19pm
AUDCAD,
Did anyone take this trade with me? +230 pips since Mon.
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