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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,921
  • May 18, 2010 5:09pm May 18, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting Tuner
I thought it was a joke first... but we have it on German news here as well...
also on CNBC at the moment.

Still unsure what the effects of that will be...

Here what DowJones said:...


So I better ask my broker what will happen to my short DAX contracts, I'm almost all-in short indicies futures (including DAX, FTSE100, S&P 500, NASDAQ).I wont be happy if the DAX futures open with a gap into the upside.
  • #2,922
  • May 18, 2010 5:13pm May 18, 2010 5:13pm
A/U short trade

+240 pips targeting .8200

E/U: the bearish flag was the key: as expected
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  • #2,923
  • May 18, 2010 5:13pm May 18, 2010 5:13pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
As I posted yesterday I am still holding a little tiny Long EUR/CHF.
(hoping for some help from the SNB

Lookin at my charts now my broker had a spike down of 80 pips.
(2 M5 candles went down there to wipe me out.... :o )
I don't see that spike on any other broker. so I am once again pretty pissed with them (only a microlot but still want to know what this is about)
--> checked the price-feed of their demo-account. no spike there either.
grrhh

should send them another complaint I think.
and give them a last chance....
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"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,924
  • May 18, 2010 5:20pm May 18, 2010 5:20pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
A/U short trade

+240 pips targeting .8200

E/U: the bearish flag was the key: as expected

Hey there Shahab..
very nice! I missed out that bearish flag on the EUR.

But nice pips on the AUD. Cashed in some again earlier around 8630.
My original position still running also from .8850 area.

Somehow expect a bigger spike up from the current level. Lookin at the weekly-chart you posted. (Hope not all the way up again...)
Placed new pending orders on the way up for now. daily pivot, weeklyS2,... lets see.)
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,925
  • May 18, 2010 5:24pm May 18, 2010 5:24pm
There's nothing new to post on the charts, everything's heading south as I mentioned hundreds of time. Take it easy and go with the trend.


Good luck all.


The chart :e-mini S&P500 futures
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  • #2,926
  • May 18, 2010 5:28pm May 18, 2010 5:28pm
Hi shahab8b,

Do you think 87 a good level to enter short AU?

Thanks,
Ran
  • #2,927
  • May 18, 2010 5:29pm May 18, 2010 5:29pm
Quoting shahab8b
So I better ask my broker what will happen to my short DAX contracts, I'm almost all-in short indicies futures (including DAX, FTSE100, S&P 500, NASDAQ).I wont be happy if the DAX futures open with a gap into the upside.
TalK about it am nearly all in on indicies as well as cable......
Early retirement may be happening in the next couple of years....

Good day matey

Geppyg
Let Price determine your future!
  • #2,928
  • May 18, 2010 7:42pm May 18, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting shahab8b
A/U short trade

+240 pips targeting .8200

E/U: the bearish flag was the key: as expected
Just wondering, what did you base this A/U trade on? Also what did you use to determine the target of .8200.

thanks for this thread, you're doing a great job!
  • #2,929
  • May 18, 2010 9:20pm May 18, 2010 9:20pm
dang, somebody just poked the euraud..... with only 1/10 the average daily volume it's run over 100% the daily range already...... almost 300% of the 4 hour average range.........

not sure if the move is for real or just a penny rocket short covering ..... possibly worth watching......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,930
  • May 18, 2010 9:30pm May 18, 2010 9:30pm
Quoting hayseed
dang, somebody just poked the euraud..... with only 1/10 the average daily volume it's run over 100% the daily range already...... almost 300% of the 4 hour average range.........

not sure if the move is for real or just a penny rocket short covering ..... possibly worth watching......h
I am hearing its because of the new hedge fund regulations in Europe. Hedge funds are liquidating leveraged long AUD positions and other carry trades. AUDUSD broke a big level tonight.
  • #2,931
  • May 18, 2010 9:56pm May 18, 2010 9:56pm
Quoting elitejets
I am hearing its because of the new hedge fund regulations in Europe. Hedge funds are liquidating leveraged long AUD positions and other carry trades. AUDUSD broke a big level tonight.
hey elite..... that must be what's going on....

the only news i noticed, other than the aussie's consumer confidence, was about wages..... but that came out a few hours after the jump....h

Quote
0206 GMT [Dow Jones] Australian wages growth slightly higher than expected in 1Q10, rising 0.9% vs 4Q09 (consensus for 0.8% rise); marks strongest quarterly growth since 4Q08. Data likely to add to concerns at RBA that inflation pressures building, perhaps helped along by workers seeking extra large pay hikes to compensate for pay freezes enforced during global financial crisis. Still, in annual terms, wages up 3.0%, below threshold that would immediately force RBA's hand on interest rates. But it looks likely that low point in wage cycle was some...
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,932
  • May 18, 2010 9:56pm May 18, 2010 9:56pm
Quoting Al-Agha
tpaulbeaumon

Kindly, what is the name of this Information source? Is it Thomson Reuters or what?


Thanks,
DJ/Dow Jones(so not that reliable imo
  • #2,933
  • May 18, 2010 9:58pm May 18, 2010 9:58pm
Quoting shahab8b
So I better ask my broker what will happen to my short DAX contracts, I'm almost all-in short indicies futures (including DAX, FTSE100, S&P 500, NASDAQ).I wont be happy if the DAX futures open with a gap into the upside.

If its true, I dont think any short positions taken out prior to ban shouldnt be effected, as per 2008 bans.
  • #2,934
  • May 18, 2010 10:01pm May 18, 2010 10:01pm
Quoting shahab8b
I'm going to explain another indicator based techniques for those who don't have the experience in charting.


I call it " Buy dip, Sell High based on RSI extreme"

The concept: trade in the direction of the larger trend, buying into an uptrend and selling into a downtrend.

1-Look at daily chart and RSI (14) indicator, if RSI>50 your set up is taking Long if RSI<50 your set up is Short.

2-Look at Hr chart, when RSI<30 in Long set up ,take long...

Another opportunity to test the Extreme RSI strategy... This time on EURAUD

RSI < 50 on daily chart --> SHORT setup
RSI ~>= 70 (69.87) on 1h chart --> SHORT @ 1.4250 (SL = 1.4310)

There is also Resistance on the 1h and 4h charts, shooting start candle on 1h, and downtrend on daily chart.

With all these reasons, I hope the trade turns out.

Will let you guys how it goes.
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  • #2,935
  • May 18, 2010 10:03pm May 18, 2010 10:03pm
Quoting tpaulbeaumon May 18, 2010 8:00am
If I were a scalper I might look for support on USDCHF at .1255 or 1205, and resistance on EURUSD around .2460 or even 2525?

disclaimer -IM NOT A SCALPER!-
haha and thats why I dont scalp; EURUSD high was .2445 and USDCHF low was .1264
  • #2,936
  • May 18, 2010 10:08pm May 18, 2010 10:08pm
E/A short at 1.4260 close to weekly R1.
The set up is fine but I'm a bit worried about the change in the dynamic of the market ,I think Aussie ,Kiwi and Cable might fall harder than Euro from now on. But we need to see a change in E/A trend which still hasn't happened.
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  • #2,937
  • May 18, 2010 10:08pm May 18, 2010 10:08pm
hey elite..... you must be right..... looks like it's going to be an rainy night in georgia...........h

Quote
0219 GMT [Dow Jones] AUD/USD set for more pain when London comes on, largely on the risk aversion stemming from Europe which shows no sign of abating, say Westpac strategists. "More weakness seems likely with markets braced for more volatility when European markets open in the aftermath of the new German government regulations." Pair last 0.8560, above session low of 0.8522. ([email protected])
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,938
  • May 18, 2010 10:09pm May 18, 2010 10:09pm
I wasnt being rude, I had replied to your:

Quoting shahab8b
Hi there, thanks for the comment. I use mostly RSI ,LSR and daily/weekly pivot,rarely I take a look at MACD but only for div.Fibs are really great too.
BTW, if you do the same PA analysis post your thoughts here, so we can learn from you.
with:

Quoting tpaulbeaumon
I agree re: fibs, and also use macd for div, i only tend to use rsi for div too. These are the only oscillators I look at. What is LSR btw? I dabbled with LSD, but that was a long time ago

I swing $ majors, but when I look to close longs I'll certainly try to post something in a timely manner. Cheers.
...just a bit of a delay. cheers.
  • #2,939
  • May 18, 2010 10:10pm May 18, 2010 10:10pm
Quoting Bouzies
Another opportunity to test the Extreme RSI strategy... This time on EURAUD

RSI < 50 on daily chart --> SHORT setup
RSI ~>= 70 (69.87) on 1h chart --> SHORT @ 1.4250 (SL = 1.4310)

There is also Resistance on the 1h and 4h charts, shooting start candle on 1h, and downtrend on daily chart.

With all these reasons, I hope the trade turns out.

Will let you guys how it goes.

Oh, I've just posted something similar but I didn't checked RSI in Hr chart.
Be careful ,risk aversion might be more negative for Assuie, but for now it's still in down trend.
BTW, short term it's making pattern which warns of a higher price, may be you want to wait a bit more to short it.

Good Luck
  • #2,940
  • May 18, 2010 10:10pm May 18, 2010 10:10pm
I came out of the short from 8950 at 8530. Looks like it is retracing. The 38, 50 and 62% of the last move are at 8620, 8650 and 8675. The daily pivot is at 8683. I am entering short at the three fibs and a pretty big one neat 61% and fib.
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