Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

A/U & U/Cad

Time frame of the trades :4-6 weeks

I like the A/U analysis.

Hi Shahab

I have exactly the same setup for au. By my timeframe it should be at 82 in the 1st or 2nd week of July.

Cheers
Amy

My post summer outlook:

Hey everyone, hope some of you caught some nice gains on the Euro shorts last week... I missed a lot of that ride down (happened way sooner than I thought, but I did have a pretty profitable week playing other pairs)...

Anyway, since everyone and their mom is short/bearish on the Euro, I'm going to go out on a limb and am anticipating a downside capped at around 1.22 for now (perhaps a little lower in the 1.21's or even a dip in the 1.19's); after that, I believe the Euro will find it's way back into the low to mid 1.30's by the end of summer... and with Gold at a double top, I also see it pulling back since it is usually seasonally weak during the summer and this also goes with my belief that the euro starts to stabilize, which make people quit chasing gold for now (at least throughout the summer).

So, my plan is to start building some EUR longs now (against the AUD and CAD; it's in no man's land on the charts, but I feel relatively safe scaling in with small positions) and the USD (when/if it gets in the 1.22's) and also some gold shorts beginning at 1245.... anyone have any thoughts/plans for a medium-term outlook.

If the Euro does happen to get back into the 1.30's, I plan to start building some Euro shorts again.

Note: Long-term (possibly as soon as next year), I see the Euro going to parity with the USD, but I like to play both sides.

Hi Amy, it's nice to see you are thinking the same. I'm always worried when you don't have the same view .

I made this myself and accounts for how I interpret the COT.

If the commercials and large speculators add to their net positions AND open interest increases I interpret that as a "show of confidence" if you will` in the price move from last tuesday to the most recent Tuesday when the report was compiled.

This week I'm hoping to sell the EURUSD, GBPUSD, and buy gold at their 1H 200 SMA's

Short AUDCAD has been taken at .9150 SL=.9300 TP=.8800 ,Time frame of the trade: 4-6 weeks

Ahh, I hate seeing my target hit without me on board. If we continue falling 100% projection and my 2nd target at 1.345 the PO is canceled.

I'm already short A/U at .8850 targeting .8200 as my long-term trade set up as I explained earlier, If we get the chance a bounce back to .8880 would be a good level to short this pair again

Short gold scalping: someone PM me and asked how to locate important S/R levels.
Take a look at this chart ,first identify S turned R level then look at the PA on that level, when you see the appropriate PA take the trade with RRR 1:1/1.5/2
I can assure you more than 60% you can win with this method.

Another example of S>R in 5 min TF :G/U short scalping

Gold short scalping target hit, RRR:1:2.2 in this case,
Note that the TP was based on the R >S level , it could be used to take a scalp long, but I passed that.

Hi Shahab
Very nice trade, thanks for everything.
Regards
Peyman

Hi Shahab,

Thanks for this thread.. Here is my view of GU. What do u think.
Sell @ 1.4496 TP:1.4250 SL:1.4550.

http://i592.photobucket.com/albums/t...aims2/gu-1.gif

May as well throw the SSI out there so you can see how your fellow traders are positioned. Bloomberg TV just had Jim O'Neill (Chief Economist at Golden Sacks) saying that he did a speech last week to 600 people and he asked for a show of hands as to who thought the E/U would be higher next year. Only three people put their hand up. He thinks it's the perfect contrarian trade Gotta say that this bearishness is as bad as it was for the US$ in late 2009.

SSI: EURUSD Ratio Decreased to 1.14 with a 27% Jump in Short Interest
Monday, 17 May 2010 09:09 GMT Written by Michael Wright

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:




SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.14 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.49 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 4.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 27.0% higher than yesterday and 17.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.4% stronger than yesterday and 93.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.31 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.74 as 64% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 10.3% lower than yesterday and 4.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 19.7% higher than yesterday and 1.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.6% stronger than yesterday and 82.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.68 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.71 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.4% higher than yesterday and 36.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.4% higher than yesterday and 13.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.2% stronger than yesterday and 112.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.97 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.22 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.2% lower than yesterday and 11.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.7% higher than yesterday and 1.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% stronger than yesterday and 84.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.48 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.58 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.4% lower than yesterday and 14.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.1% higher than yesterday and 8.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.2% stronger than yesterday and 73.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.80 as nearly 64% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.75 as 64% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.7% lower than yesterday and 24.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.3% higher than yesterday and 9.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.8% weaker than yesterday and 70.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 2.18 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.17 as 68% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.6% higher than yesterday and 8.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 12.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.4% stronger than yesterday and 85.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.81 as nearly 64% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.69 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 19.0% higher than yesterday and 85.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.4% higher than yesterday and 28.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 16.2% stronger than yesterday and 109.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

Hi Peyman, You are welcome .

Hi there, nice set up, take it with no worries.

Good luck.

G/U

Short E/U has been taken at 1.2400 SL=50 pips, TP=100 pips

Might try for daily pivot. I think Acumen says that probability of hitting daily pivot is 80%. Mine is at 1.2429.