Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas | Page 141 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

COT report... futures or futures and options report? 11 replies

EA, GA, GCAD, GJ, GN - Analysis and trade ideas 11 replies

Cot - Report in application to the Forex 2 replies

Fundamental Analysis - Trade Ideas 2 replies

COT report 1 reply

Attachments: Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas
Exit Attachments

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,801
  • May 15, 2010 6:58am May 15, 2010 6:58am
Quoting Patience
G'day Shahab - I think I did this week - checked my accounts and have done approx. 8 short trades this month on E/U compared to over 300 long A/J trades. Ridiculous, I know. I like to make it hard for myself I call them ninja trades - in and out. Think I'll turn myself into an EA No sentiment reading last night but there was no mercy for those traders long on E/U, Cable and A/U.

G'day Patience,thanks for the weekly report. I think you should place long- term position trades besides your ninja trades.You are right in the direction of the market most of times for instance you got E/U,Gold and U/J perfectly right. You may want to think about shorting indicies this time.
  • #2,802
  • May 15, 2010 7:05am May 15, 2010 7:05am
A/U COT

Large institutes are decreasing their long Aussie contracts. I think we will see continuation of this pattern.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au1a.png Size: 52 KB
  • #2,803
  • May 15, 2010 7:12am May 15, 2010 7:12am
U/J COT

To my surprise large institutes still holding 34,699 short Yen (long U/J) contracts. This make the A/J ,N/J and Cad/J vulnerable to a big drop in case of position unwinding due to risk aversion.

In this regard ,take a look at the article which Elite posted earlier at #2784
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj1a.png Size: 53 KB
  • #2,804
  • May 15, 2010 7:17am May 15, 2010 7:17am
Quoting Lanes110
Hi Shahab8b,

I have been following your thread for a while and I must say that it is very successful.

I have a question about the indicator Level Stop Reverse v2. I searched the thread to find explanation for it however without success. Could you give a little info on that indicator? Is it based on ATR, or does it have anything to do with daily pivot?

Thanks for your replies..

Hello Shahab
Please give answer to this. i don't understand them too and please give there meaning.. LSR, ATR, RRR etc bcos of newbie, so as to add them to our chart
  • #2,805
  • May 15, 2010 7:23am May 15, 2010 7:23am
Quoting shahab8b
A/J

Short has been taken at 84.57 ,will add at 85.32 sl=86.57

A/J:

As expected ,I think more fall will come if the equities start falling again.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj2a.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aj2b.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #2,806
  • May 15, 2010 7:31am May 15, 2010 7:31am
Quoting Lanes110
Hi Shahab8b,

I have been following your thread for a while and I must say that it is very successful.

I have a question about the indicator Level Stop Reverse v2. I searched the thread to find explanation for it however without success. Could you give a little info on that indicator? Is it based on ATR, or does it have anything to do with daily pivot?

Thanks for your replies..

Hi there, take a look at what the creator says: #1

It has nothing to do with daily pivot, as I mentioned you need to have the daily pivot indicator too if you want to use TFM method.
  • #2,807
  • May 15, 2010 9:53am May 15, 2010 9:53am
U/Chf

Last week movement all as expected.

2nd chart :my thoughts on the next 2-3 weeks:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uchf1b.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uchf2b.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #2,808
  • May 15, 2010 12:45pm May 15, 2010 12:45pm
Quoting shahab8b
U/Chf

Last week movement all as expected.

2nd chart :my thoughts on the next 2-3 weeks:
You might like this Buddy #647
  • #2,809
  • May 15, 2010 6:12pm May 15, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
You might like this Buddy #647

Hi mate,

That's amazing, two different approach and the same levels and direction!!
  • #2,810
  • May 15, 2010 6:27pm May 15, 2010 6:27pm
G/U

Sell limit at 1.4800 ,SL=1.5075 TP=1.4250 & 1.3450

RRR: 1:2 for the 1st target
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu3d.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #2,811
  • May 15, 2010 6:40pm May 15, 2010 6:40pm
GBP/CAD ,

I like the idea of shorting cable agianst Loonie as the rate hike in CAD is probable in June and the chart structure provides the opportunity to trade based on both technical and fundamental.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gcad.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #2,812
  • May 15, 2010 7:59pm May 15, 2010 7:59pm
http://chart.ly/assets/36ssqy.png

here's reading of fridays cot. Cur price is actually tuesday close.

Long gold...price closed Friday Under 1234.90 which is nice, I'll be looking for volume and bullish PA to enter on monday
Short EURUSD above 1.2633
Short Cable above 1.4927

That's about all I got.
  • #2,813
  • May 16, 2010 6:04am May 16, 2010 6:04am
Quoting Oshawa
Hi, thanks for the attachment. Is that your corporate subscription? Or would it be possible for individuals to receive it? I checked Lloyds CM website and couldn't find a link to it. Thanks.
The company banks with Lloyds and it just gets emailed. However there is an option now to "refer a friend" - lol - so if you want to PM me your email address I can send it on to them. This is not a trick - I am not a scam artist

Quoting shahab8b
G'day Patience,thanks for the weekly report. I think you should place long- term position trades besides your ninja trades.You are right in the direction of the market most of times for instance you got E/U,Gold and U/J perfectly right. You may want to think about shorting indicies this time.
I know - I'm having a problem with it at the moment and I have sub-accounts set up specifically for this purpose - it's just not working how I planned. Some trades start out as longer term and then I see profit and I'm taking it. At times it has been the right decision to take it and other times it hasn't. I haven't got enough patience I try not to chastise myself too much though because at the end of the day, profit is profit and I'm sure we all know that trading this market is an ongoing psychological challenge no matter how many years you have been doing it.

As for the Euro I'm more in this boat at the moment rather than total collapse http://www.huffingtonpost.com/george..._b_576549.html. As I said previously, I'm not ruling out a test of 1.17xx area at some stage but I'd expect it to return to this area and maybe higher based purely on average yearly range. Let's see .....
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,814
  • May 16, 2010 7:00am May 16, 2010 7:00am
Quoting Patience
The company banks with Lloyds and it just gets emailed. However there is an option now to "refer a friend" - lol - so if you want to PM me your email address I can send it on to them. This is not a trick - I am not a scam artist



I know - I'm having a problem with it at the moment and I have sub-accounts set up specifically for this purpose - it's just not working how I planned. Some trades start out as longer term and then I see profit and I'm taking it. At times it has been the right decision to take it and other times it hasn't. I haven't...
G'day patience, I think a weaker Euro will help them to recover so they wont stop it besides Euro will be the next funding currency http://www.fx360.com/commentary/kath...or-parity.aspx. Looking at the structure of the chart I don't see the fall ends before 1.16-15.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu3a.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #2,815
  • May 16, 2010 7:06am May 16, 2010 7:06am
E/U:

Daily Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu3.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #2,816
  • May 16, 2010 7:44am May 16, 2010 7:44am
Gold: Shorting the beast is a tough task to succeed. On Fri I thought I got it on the top but after dropping 200 pips it came back to my entry level (fortunatley I took profit on half before the bounce).This time I'm looking to short this monster at 61% ext at 1267 but I think that will not be a permanent top ,I guess 100% ext (blue line)/61% ext (red-line)-depending on the levels considered for projection - around 1385-1406 , will be the historical top of the precious metal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gld2aa.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #2,817
  • May 16, 2010 7:55am May 16, 2010 7:55am
EUR/CHF

I dont look at this pair often.That's the reason we missed that classic short trade at S>R here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: echf2.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #2,818
  • May 16, 2010 7:56am May 16, 2010 7:56am
Quoting dfstone32
http://chart.ly/assets/36ssqy.png

here's reading of fridays cot. Cur price is actually tuesday close.

Long gold...price closed Friday Under 1234.90 which is nice, I'll be looking for volume and bullish PA to enter on monday
Short EURUSD above 1.2633
Short Cable above 1.4927

That's about all I got.

Hi there, where did you get the table? It's very useful.
  • #2,819
  • May 16, 2010 8:31am May 16, 2010 8:31am
Take a look at #2817

Here is my suggestion about how to trade this breakout:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: echf2a.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #2,820
  • May 16, 2010 9:48am May 16, 2010 9:48am
Quoting shahab8b
Take a look at #2817

Here is my suggestion about how to trade this breakout:
I have a signal on this one already #632
2 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
WilliamTMan