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  • #242,321
  • May 15, 2010 3:01am May 15, 2010 3:01am
Morning to all . wish a happy weekend to all & hope all cashed a good pip last week.
me too have good week last but at the week end at last engaged in some antitrend while the expected H4 bull due stampeded by big bears with huge movements from higher tf . though many were able to close with profit but still allow run some . at the same time last analysis showed HS & expected fall to the 1.2331 , the most strong supportline arround here weekly level.the hs was also apparently broke but last min unable to finish.
so planned seeing the probable hs I shorted at the shoulder to 1.2404 to hedge equally the longs taken & tp set them to 1.2338. and set pending longs at that level. price may further fall to 1.2303 & that to take risk.if gap up then it will hit sl at 1.2303 & longs already there .

expecting gap down anyway & bounce from 1.2331 most probably or can even be 1.2303 but very dangerous price go that level as demand area to further fall greatly next , few srs before 1.2123.so my longs sl much below 1.2300.

At the same time I posted many times , yesterday was a great day as both daily & weekly level pa just completed sell setup perfection & retracement up for not only many days but can be many weeks too. Ofcourse do not know how this possible ? h4 tf can be pissed off without care by daily but daily,weekly by who ? by monthly , take lots time to come effect & can be ignored totally.even after a setup perfection few candles can continue before effective if momentum is very strong ,like this time & did for H4 yesterday & even that H4 not in any bear rally then,just waiting retracement so far. In that scence reversing a daily ,weekly pa motive are near impossible.

So my risky way adjusted last night were , hedge funds till 1.2338 to where more longs will join & only longs will remain to work with most expected gap down & all up & if gap up hugely then hit sl & continue only longs too. all longs will hit sl if below 1.2287( any below 1.2300).

Though I like close all trades +- weekend but now to take risk.Not any worry ,hope will able to manage before any good loose of the profit of the week .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #242,322
  • May 15, 2010 4:54am May 15, 2010 4:54am
The most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report is out, and at least as pertains to the EURUSD, it is a doozy. After hitting record after record in net short exposure, the Euro net non-commercial contracts have surged by 10% week-over-week, and represent a fifth consecutive weekly bet on the decline of the Euro, to -113,890 contracts. This is an all time record, as virtually all speculators are betting against the Euro. On the other hand, a reversal here for whatever reason would incite the mother of all short squeezes and likely push the EUR to well over 1.60 on a catalytic event. The only question is whether such a catalytic event can even possibly be conceived. We'll leave that one to the black swan hunters among you.
Andreyou
  • #242,323
  • May 15, 2010 5:14am May 15, 2010 5:14am
Quoting andreypu
The most recent CFTC [url="http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalCompressed/index.htm"]Commitment...
I agree that a short squeeze is in the cards but 1.60 is a bit overdone, mhh? I think a short squeeze could push it to about 1.30 and slightly above and that's what I think will happen soon...
  • #242,324
  • May 15, 2010 5:23am May 15, 2010 5:23am
@xaron : so do you think this pair will be bounce back to 1.3 again without pushing down to 1.18?
  • #242,325
  • May 15, 2010 5:23am May 15, 2010 5:23am
Quoting yeri
so do you think this pair will be bounce back to 1.3 again without pushing down to 1.18?
Yes.
  • #242,326
  • May 15, 2010 6:38am May 15, 2010 6:38am
I'm the first time here, i long at 1.2468 on Friday, any one can give me an advice ?
  • #242,327
  • May 15, 2010 7:00am May 15, 2010 7:00am
Quoting yeri
@xaron : so do you think this pair will be bounce back to 1.3 again without pushing down to 1.18?
He-he me too of course..

"Treasury Prices Soar On Euro-Zone Woes"

Can you believe in that absurd? People never learn.. They are getting

killed by Debt and now they buying another Debt, to get killed twice

later. If you think those (Greek riots ) not coming to the US, think again.

Now I hear some reasonable voices:

"The U.S. is currently in the same position, only it is a much larger problem than that of Greece. Who will bail out the U.S. when the trough runs dry? While the U.S. has massive debt, it is constantly adding fuel to the fire by continuing deficit spending, continuing unwarranted and expensive wars, and by adding new and expensive welfare schemes like Obamacare; schemes that can only exacerbate an already very tenuous economic predicament. The immediate consideration should be to demand that government implement very “harsh austerity measures” here, effectively cutting spending at every level, and the people of this country should accept nothing less. Will this happen? I don’t think there is a chance in Hades that this proper response will occur, but without it things will continue to worsen. "
"

http://my.auburnjournal.com/detail/150020.html
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #242,328
  • May 15, 2010 7:14am May 15, 2010 7:14am
Enjoy:

Man, he really steps on those CNBC talking heads nerves

Peter Schiff on CNBC: Gold will go to $10,000 per oz!

I like this guy:

Inserted Video
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #242,329
  • May 15, 2010 7:23am May 15, 2010 7:23am
Quoting wwwin
I am not saying they are going to crash and burn, but inflation will be the only way to pay the debts,,,,,you will have more business moving offshore b/c of too restrictive laws....and deporting all the illegals or less immigration...less growth or negative growth...less taxes collected...then you have the socialized health bill, hugely costly...a war that will never end(How long have the Jews and Arabs been fighting)...a very weak dollar will at least help with the debt servicing.
A weak dollar is the salvation not the damnation.
Short and Mid...
u.s. getting their head out their ass and supporting their own people would have the same affect. without deflating currency. the big fucking wallmart myth is coming to light. We the 10$ we spent to buy tennis shoes from China a is coming to light. the actual cost was 1000 of usd for those tennis shoes because of demand on commodities from third world middle class. Banking offshore? sure it will affect us.. Hey but many of the civilized old world economies are now talking about uniform banking. they can outlaw or squeeze out some of the offshore banking. So when the bankers say they can leave and go somewhere else and make more.(let them go). voids get filled. There pressures on politicians to reel in the fed. So when/if this happens offshore money lent may dry up. Most of it indirectly comes from the fed. When the fed loans money in secret deals to other central banks. It directly fucks us... Loaning money to U.S. competition is a bull shit policy wrapped up in a freedom of market flag feed to the sheep by the elite. (paid for by bankers and spilled on cnbc, bloomberg, fox ect.) Wall mart dont loan money to k-mart or sears. much less give them money.. neither should the u.s. give money to help competition. We got a generation of blind sheep who need to be educated on a true free market. A free market don't mean paying your competition to compete from another country. the sheep need to get the bs breed out their dna and their head out their ass. no matter how many flags its wrapped in free trade does not mean you fund your competition then tie your hands behind your back to compete. stupid is what stupid does. When u.s. stops spending trillions so a selected few can make billions the math will make sense.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #242,330
  • May 15, 2010 7:50am May 15, 2010 7:50am
Quoting andreypu
The most recent CFTC [url="http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalCompressed/index.htm"]Commitment...
*LMFAO* i played this weeks ago.... before media was talking about it.. it was for a reason... so was the quote "rollover for a finale swan song"

hey but pull backs are healthy... but the thing that may stop much if any atm is a 10/35 year old trend and its tl... but its forex and not much surprises me. The commodity pair wedges where their. and those who ignored them paid. the wedges were their when some said at eu 1.51 was a steal to buy. anyway at the bottom i post the beginning. the 35 year old formation has been crossed. granted i don't doubt we touch it again once or twice in the next few weeks or month.. but atm we are on the other side. if so eu move has just started....and a possible 5000/7000 pip move on chf will put eu closer to ZEro. : (without intervention 0)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7NP47UKeRE
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #242,331
  • May 15, 2010 8:08am May 15, 2010 8:08am
eur/usd back 1.31 monday
i am sure back again to 1.31
  • #242,332
  • May 15, 2010 8:17am May 15, 2010 8:17am
Quoting gatorinla
if so eu move has just started....and a possible 5000/7000 pip move on chf will put eu closer to ZEro. : (without intervention 0)
If you believe EUR will collapse, then possible. Dollar is and will have

to stay weak. Remember? DEBT has to be inflated not deflated.

Or Else US will have to pay back much more, than they borrow in value

terms. And this not going to happened.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #242,333
  • May 15, 2010 8:18am May 15, 2010 8:18am
Quoting SkyzerFX
He-he me too of course..

"Treasury Prices Soar On Euro-Zone Woes"

Can you believe in that absurd? People never learn.. They are getting

killed by Debt and now they buying another Debt, to get killed twice

later. If you think those (Greek riots ) not coming to the US, think again.

Now I hear some reasonable voices:

"The U.S. is currently in the same position, only it is a much larger...
man you must be loading up on longs now. i told you hyper speed.. the lines are getting further apart. 500 pip days are in the making.. lets c what kind of bullshit moves they can try to fool the market with Sunday.. Where there is smoke there is fire. All you gotta do is listen. We had a failed german bund sale. then following a big meeting they said they would buy bonds/bunds in the open market. what they did not say is they had already done it. and since they had already done it and later had a german one fail.. it meant they were out of bullets.. unable to fund their own pozi scheme from the bottom. so once they were unable to fund it they had the big trillion euro meeting. then suckered u.s. fed to fund it.. they are broke.. Germany wants to spend money on Germany not others.. (the money it has left) Germany said it would not bail out the others without imf doing it first. Dont be so naive.... The E.Z. had to be directly bailed out by the U.S. Fed. The Germans could not afford to buy its own bunds and less afford to bail out Greece. Greece is just an excuse... A big myth... Its not Greece... its the European banking system. the ones who dont want to throw good money after bad.. maybe cause they are broke. or soon would be without Greece bailout. This is why Germany had a failed bund sale.. plain and very simple.. European governments have spent more then they have or can borrow (from broke banks). the U.S. don't want panic. its already too late. im sure there are a few bs band-aids in the making until they throw up their hands like the swiss and say fuck it.

the fat finger was up the ass.

theme music:

Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #242,334
  • May 15, 2010 8:25am May 15, 2010 8:25am
Quoting Darpsyx
Sorry 1st time posting here, anyway just wanted to know URL says page not found. Interesting this topic Im always reading


greetings all

Darp
Sorry.. don't know why it didn't post.. It's about a short squeeze on the EUR/USD on zerohedge . com
  • #242,335
  • May 15, 2010 8:27am May 15, 2010 8:27am
Quoting mfoste1
Hey i thought you would love this......http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roUPN9HgY0s

its bad when you gotta get carl monday, dick godhard, and marc the norton furniture guy to beg lebron to stay.....I laughed for a good 30 min!
That vid wouldn't play for me..

OMG... the "cleveland cryers" will be out full force.. It's going to be another Art Model moment.. I can feel it.. LOL

I was sick to my stomach watching that game.. down by 9 with a minute and they didn't even foul.. good grief.. it's a playoff game..
  • #242,336
  • May 15, 2010 8:30am May 15, 2010 8:30am
Quoting SkyzerFX
If you believe EUR will collapse, then possible. Dollar is and will have

to stay weak. Remember? DEBT has to be inflated not deflated.

Or Else US will have to pay back much more, than they borrow in value

terms. And this not going to happened.
usd don't have to calapse... china is popping.. who else is there? when the largest consumer consumes from within we don't have a deficit or a usd problem. or a employment problem
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #242,337
  • May 15, 2010 8:33am May 15, 2010 8:33am
Quoting SkyzerFX
If you believe EUR will collapse, then possible. Dollar is and will have

to stay weak. Remember? DEBT has to be inflated not deflated.

Or Else US will have to pay back much more, than they borrow in value

terms. And this not going to happened.

no collapse when all of people think down . eur is 1.31
  • #242,338
  • May 15, 2010 8:42am May 15, 2010 8:42am
Quoting SkyzerFX
If you believe EUR will collapse, then possible. Dollar is and will have

to stay weak. Remember? DEBT has to be inflated not deflated.

Or Else US will have to pay back much more, than they borrow in value

terms. And this not going to happened.
i said euro would have it tough 2 years ago before 1.6... u.s.. put euro that high.. it had nothing to do with euro.. you cant fund any ponzi scheme w/o new money (youngsters).. Europe has an aging population as does japan.. the breeders rule for now.. the breeders with commodities like Canada... all goverments are ponzi schemes. but even with the breeders when unemployment is high it will hurt. commodities are good till they stop being bought. if the breeders with commodities are hurting the others hurt more. U.S. is also a breeder with commodities..atm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #242,339
  • Edited 8:59am May 15, 2010 8:47am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting SkyzerFX
He-he me too of course..

"Treasury Prices Soar On Euro-Zone Woes"

Can you believe in that absurd? People never learn.. They are getting

killed by Debt and now they buying another Debt, to get killed twice

later. If you think those (Greek riots ) not coming to the US, think again.

Now I hear some reasonable voices:

"The U.S. is currently in the same position, only it is a much larger problem than that of Greece. Who will bail out the U.S. when the trough runs dry? While the U.S. has massive debt, it is constantly...
Thanks for information . Just come to you for your valuable opinion.

You see in my last analysis as per TD counts there warrents near immediate bull action from next forex days to weeks long after daily & weekly both have sell setup perfection , that is healthy retracement before further sell. Gator already told about healthy retracements .13 count down that is minimum 13 days of retracements around this levels now , say 6 days up & 7 days down or any combination & next will come same 13 minimum weeks too if not diverted agin with any rally by this time .At the same time the same also applied for H4 though 4 down candles after the buy setup perfection so far but not in any rally down yet,waiting reverse .

Apparently it seems impossible at this levels or any great retracements , do have any idea how it can be possible fundamantally ? what they are cooking uptodate ?

There are many comments in news section about eu ,they clearly divide as to further fall and bounce . If both types of analysts are correct then price may contoniue fall in the same pace to 1.2123 by 1 or 2 days next but again the questions of retracements will come back .
hints , as of monthly this present candle already have 992 pips in hand , 15 days left close & can easily shade most pips without any harm to the bear rally there .

As you were always in favour of bull in eu or dollar bear , it will be of great help in understanding the next scenerio in the market specially eu.
Thanks ,
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #242,340
  • May 15, 2010 8:56am May 15, 2010 8:56am
Quoting gatorinla
u.s. getting their head out their ass and supporting their own people would have the same affect. without deflating currency. the big fucking wallmart myth is coming to light. We the 10$ we spent to buy tennis shoes from China a is coming to light. the actual cost was 1000 of usd for those tennis shoes because of demand on commodities from third world middle class. Banking offshore? sure it will affect us.. Hey but many of the civilized old world economies are now talking about uniform banking. they can outlaw or squeeze out some of the offshore...
I agree, but when are they going to do it? Case in point, the US is already giving $$ into the EZ bailout, in the meantime, the EZ is haggling over it and has not funded 1 penny into it.
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